Mardaani 3 Box Office Prediction: Rani Mukerji-Starrer To Have A Moderate Start Amid Border 2 Storm, Says Trade Expert

Mardaani 3 marks Rani Mukerji's return to the big screen after Mrs. Chatterjee vs Norway (2023). With its release on January 30, the film celebrates Rani's 30 years in the film industry, which makes it even more special for the actor and her fans. Directed by Abhiraj Minawala and produced by Yash Raj Films (YRF), Mardaani 3 promises to carry forward the franchise's legacy with yet another socially relevant subject. While Mardaani exposed the grim realities of human trafficking, Mardaani 2 explored the disturbing psyche of a serial psychopath who raped and murdered women. The third instalment will show another brutal reality of our society, involving a beggar mafia.

The advance bookings for Mardaani 3 opened on Wednesday (January 28), as it gears up for a major theatrical rollout. According to Sacnilk, it has sold 15873 tickets, collecting Rs 46.72 lakhs (Rs 1.44 crore with block seats) for 3880 shows. Will it perform well amid the Border 2 storm? Girish Wankhede, movie trade and PR expert, has weighed in on the buzz around Mardaani 3, box office projections, and the road ahead. 

What's the buzz around Mardaani 3?

Wankhede observed that the buzz is very "average" as Sunny Deol-starrer Border 2 is currently grabbing all the attention. "Everybody is talking about Border 2. It is the first film of 2026 that earned Rs 200 crore in the first four days and is growing. Right now, if you see the publicity material and social media, it's all Sunny Deol promoting his film. It did phenomenal business on Republic Day," he said.

When asked about the timing of Mardaani 3's release amid the Border 2 storm, Wankhede feels that preponing Mardaani 3 was not the right move, and it will face stiff competition with Border 2 in the initial days. According to him, Sunny's film will have a big weekend, which means Rani's film will have a tough Saturday and Sunday.

Border 2 box office prediction

"Border 2 is purely massy, while Mardaani 3 is quite a niche film. In the wake of the great euphoria the former has gathered, it will definitely affect the first three days of the Rani-starrer. Mardaani 3 is unlikely to match the second-week strength of Border 2. For a film to compete with a massy, successful film, it's a tough task in the first week," he added.

He predicted Mardaani 3 is likely to open in the range of Rs 4-5 crore, and if the word of mouth is good, it won't be more than Rs 15 crore over the weekend.

No novelty factor

According to Wankhede, the third instalment looks very routine and not out-of-the-box. "It has failed to stand out and looks typical. There is no novelty factor, which is a problem," he said.

"Mardaani 3 has to be a very brilliant film to compete with Border 2," he concluded.