Alpha Box Office Prediction: Dhurandhar Effect Dampens Projections For Alia Bhatt-Sharvari Starrer

Alia Bhatt and Sharvari lead the upcoming film Alpha, which is marketed as Yash Raj Films 'first-ever female-led spy thriller'. Directed by Shiv Rawail, the feature is set for theatrical release on Friday (July 3).

Following the trailer release, audiences received it well for its sleekness, high production value and sharp trailer cut but also drew criticism for allegedly copying the introductory scene and dialogue from two movies. Many found the plotline resembled the 1990’s French film Le Femme Nikita and a dialogue by Bobby Deol’s character from the film American Sniper (2014). Some felt that a poster was copied from Dune.

The pre-release hype is noticeably lower than that of previous YRF spy films. This muted response stems directly from the massive success and realistic benchmark established by the recent spy film Dhurandhar, according to Girish Wankhede, movie trade and PR expert.

The Dhurandhar effect

The aftermath of Dhurandhar has affected Alpha's pre-buzz. Audiences will now compare upcoming spy features against its high standards, suppressing the initial buzz for Alpha. Wankhede says, "Dhurandhar has given a reality check. It has been such a great spy film that everything will be compared with it. It has set the benchmark to a different level now. Alpha is a conventional film with an obvious plotline. The buzz may build after the film is released, and it might gain momentum due to word of mouth if it's extremely good. But right now, it isn't looking like a YRF film but a very regular, average one."

The superstar deficit and lack of novelty

The current box office environment relies heavily on massive star appeal, which Alpha lacks. Wankhede feels that Alia and Sharvari do not have the massive action-superstar pull and the film lacks realism.

"Alia and Sharvari are not superstars. It's not Pathaan or Jawan kind of films with superstars. The hype is yet to be created, which is usually created for a superstar film," he adds. "It is from a big banner with great style and production value, but audiences won't fall prey to it as there is no novelty in it. It is purely fictional and will have to struggle to set itself apart from Dhurandhar."

Copying allegations adds negativity

Wankhede also points out the negative remarks on the film being copied from other films, which he feels is a major setback for a YRF film. He says that a high-stakes film like Alpha should have originality.

According to him, Dhurandhar has made people understand realistic films and how spies work.

Criticises India's Got Latent promotion

YRF maintains a long-standing industry reputation for high marketing standards and grace.

The trade expert feels that promoting the film in a show like India's Got Latent was a wrong move. "You can't go to any low-level shows only to grab the eyeballs. Going to such shows is a cheap tactic."

Is Alpha releasing at the wrong time?

Akshay Kumar-led Welcome to the Jungle, which was released on June 26, is performing well at the box office. Next week, on July 10, Dhamaal 4, another instalment from the hit franchise, will arrive in cinemas. In that case, trade experts feel that it was a wrong decision by the makers to release the movie on July 3.

Wankhede agrees, saying, "Any serious film that has a competition with comedy films, the latter will definitely win. Comedy has a mass reception. So, you can't compete with comedy any day. See the franchise value of both films. So, releasing Alpha this week is pure suicide."

Alpha box office prediction

Reportedly, the organic advance booking for Alpha is low and pathetic. Spy thrillers are expected to rake in Rs 100 in three days, but with Alpha, it looks impossible. "If it manages to earn even Rs 50 crore over the weekend, that's a big thing," Wankhede concludes