Continuing Infiltration Causing Concern

Jim Lehrer Mr. Secretary, welcome. 

Colin Powell : Thank you.

Jim Lehrer President Bush is sending Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan.What will be his mission? 

Colin Powell : Well, it will be another individual going over on behalf of the international community, especially theUnited States, to talk to the leaders of these two countries to try to keep them from, frankly, getting into aconflict with each other. We are working veryhard with both sides. As you know, the European Union wasin last week. Chris Patten, my colleague the British ForeignSecretary Jack Straw was in just within the past few days. Thetwo leaders, Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf, will be meeting with President Putin --individually, not together -- in Alma-Ati, and then Deputy Secretary Armitage is going in early next week.And since Secretary Rumsfeld is going to be in Europe and in the Gulf region around the 8th or 9th ofJune, it made sense for him to also go into those two countries and see what he could do to help defusetensions, and also visit our troops in the region as well.

Jim Lehrer So it should not be seen as a decision on the part of the President that this is more of a militaryproblem than a diplomatic problem; that's why Secretary Rumsfeld is going instead of you? 

Colin Powell : Oh, it's very much a diplomatic matter at this time. ButSecretary Rumsfeld has visited over there before, and I'm in constant touch with the leaders on both sides,and I'm sending my Deputy in the next few days to go over. So weuse all the assets available to us, and since Secretary Rumsfeld was going to be in the region it made sensefor him to go in.

Jim Lehrer How close are India and Pakistan to war? 

Colin Powell : I am afraid that it is a very tense situation. I can'ttell you how close to a war they might be. What we are trying todo is make sure they never reach that point. We are pressingPresident Musharraf very hard to cease all infiltration activities on the part of terrorist organizationsacross the line of control, and we are asking the Indians to show restraint until we can determine whether ornot that infiltration activity has ceased. And if it has ceased,then there will be a basis for the Indians to reciprocate by starting to deescalate, moving down themobilization ladder, and then hopefully other actions and other steps can be taken after that.

Soright now it is a tense situation. We are worried about it.That's why everybody is involved -- the entire international community -- and we're using all of thetools available to us, with visits, phone calls. The Presidentfollows this situation on a daily basis, and we're getting Deputy Secretary Armitage ready to go in now.And my conversations with the leaders are on an almost every-other-day basis.

Jim Lehrer President Musharraf said this morning, as I'm sure you know, Mr. Secretary, that he was consideringtaking some of his troops from the -- moving them from the border with Afghanistan to the border with India. Thatis an ominous sign, is it not? 

Colin Powell : Well, it's even more reason that we want to get a handle on this crisis and start moving it in theother direction, because if he were to do that and felt it was necessary to do that, then that would take awayfrom our campaign against al-Qaida and remaining Taliban forces in western Pakistan who crossed over fromeastern Afghanistan. So we're trying to avoid that, and that'sanother good reason why Secretary Rumsfeld will be able to deliver a strong message, since he is concernedabout that issue and its effect on Operation Enduring Freedom.

Jim Lehrer If there is, in fact, a conflict, how likely is it that it would eventually lead to the use of nuclearweapons by these two countries? 

Colin Powell : I can't answer that question, but I can say this. In myconversations with both sides, and especially with the Pakistani side, I have made it clear that this reallycan't be in anyone's mind.

Imean, the thought of a nuclear conflict in the year 2002, with what that would mean with respect to loss oflife, what that would mean with respect to the condemnation -- the worldwide condemnation -- that would comedown on whatever nation chose to take that course of action, would be such that I can see very littlemilitary, political or any other kind of justification for the use of nuclear weapons.Nuclear weapons in this day and age may serve some deterrent effect, and so be it, but to think ofusing them as just another weapon in what might start out as a conventional conflict in this day and age seemsto me to be something that no side should be contemplating.

Jim Lehrer Now, when you said that to President Musharraf, what response did you get? 

Colin Powell : I have a clear understanding from President Musharraf that he understands that message and that he seesthings in the same way. But at the same time, you know he is apresident of a country that has such weapons under his control and they possess such weapons, and so you don'tget ironclad guarantees with these kinds of issues and in this dangerous situation.And so I will continue to discuss with both sides how important it is for us to start moving in theother direction, and not toward conflict, with all the unintended consequences that often come with conflict.

Jim Lehrer And you delivered that same message to the Indian side? 

Colin Powell : I have been in touch with the Indians. I haven’t…I amsure that in the days ahead I will have an opportunity to convey the message in the same way.I started really speaking about nuclear issues this past week with President Musharraf.

Jim Lehrer  But as we sit here right now, you have no assurance from either side that if this thing comes toconflict that either one or both won't end up using nuclear weapons? 

Colin Powell : Yes, but I really don't want to sort of fall into that trap of saying because I have no assurance thatmeans it's going to happen. I think both of these leadersunderstand the grave consequences associated with the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a conventionalconflict between the two of them, what starts out as a conventional conflict.

AndI think they are both sobered at the moment by what those consequences are.It would be horrific, in the year 2002, to see a second use of nuclear weapons in history.The United States was the first user, to stop a world war in 1945, and since then nuclear weapons havebeen developed by other countries, to include these two, for deterrent purposes.And we do not want to even contemplate the use of nuclear weapons, and that is my message to both ofthem.

Jim Lehrer For folks who have not followed the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir -- it's been going on for many,many years -- how would you define it in its simplest terms? Whatis it that has brought these two countries to the brink of war?

Colin Powell : It is a very sensitive issue between the two sides. Thereare political consequences, religious issues involved in it. Ithas been an intractable problem for 50 years. It has to do withthe various populations that coexist within Kashmir, and they have never been able to find a political way tosolve this difficult problem that really has been there since the formation of these two countries.

Anumber of US administrations over the years have tried to play a role in finding a way forward; the UN hastried, others have tried, and have not been successful. I thinkif we get this crisis moving in the other direction and start down the de-escalatory ladder, we really do needto once again see if we can start a dialogue between the two sides, discuss issues that are existing betweenthem, and ultimately discuss Kashmir and how to get past this 50-year impasse.

Jim Lehrer But again, as we sit here now, there's not even a peace plan on any table anywhere, is there? 

Colin Powell : There are a number of ideas and plans that have been out there for many, many years, but right nowthere is nothing active before the two parties for them to consider.

Jim Lehrer Are you considering coming up with one, a US plan? Say,"Hey, look, here's a way to go; if you can just back down, we'll help you try to resolve this"?Have you considered doing that? 

Colin Powell : I don't think you can come in with any outside plan. Ithink the two sides have to discuss this with each other. I don'tthink there is a role at this point for a mediator to come in from the outside.I think this is something that has to be dealt with between the two sides.And outsiders can play a role in getting them talking to one another and putting a process in place,but it's a plan that they will have to come up with.

Jim Lehrer Why won't they talk to each other right now? 

Colin Powell : Well, they have had some very bad experiences in recent years as they have tried to talk to one another.Their conferences -- the Agra meeting of a year or twoago did not turn out well. So there's a lack of trust between thetwo sides, a lack of good faith between the two sides on this issue, and we've got to get beyond that as well.

Jim Lehrer What is the US stake in this? 

Colin Powell : Well, the US stake is a large one. We have good relationswith both countries, and especially with Pakistan in the last six months as a result of the strategic choicethat President Musharraf made. They have joined us in thecampaign against terrorism. We also have good relations withIndia, and we were on the upswing with respect to our bilateral relations.We want to keep that going. It becomes immensely moredifficult if they are involved in a conflict with each other, a conflict that does have the potential ofbecoming nuclear, even though we hope that everybody will realize this makes absolutely no sense.

Andit also affects, or could affect, our campaign against terrorism and the work we're doing in Afghanistan withOperation Enduring Freedom. As you noted earlier, if troops arediverted from working with us to capture al-Qaida and Taliban remnants back to the border with India, theborder that is so tense right now, it takes away from our overall campaign against terrorism.

Andit simply would not be good for the world right now to see this kind of a regional conflict break out betweenthese two nations.

Jim Lehrer: Salman Rushdie, the writer, had a piece on the op-ed page of The New York Times this morning,and he said, "Kashmir is everybody's problem. Right now,it's the most dangerous place in the world."

Doyou agree with him, Mr. Secretary? 

Colin Powell : It is certainly one of the most dangerous places in the world. Iwould agree with that. I think the Middle East can also be seenas a very dangerous place. But even as dangerous as the MiddleEast is, the consequences that can flow from something in the Middle East don't rise to the sorts ofconsequences that can flow from a conflict between India and Pakistan, as we have already discussed.

Jim Lehrer What about evacuating American citizens from India and Pakistan? Haveyou made a decision yet on recommendations about that? 

Colin Powell : We have put out advisories to travelers that it would be best to avoid traveling into that region rightnow, tourists and others, and we are examining this very afternoon what our policies should be with respect toany drawdown of our presence in the country. And when we arethrough with that review and consulted with others in the administration, as well as our allies, we'll bemaking appropriate announcements if any change is warranted.

Jim Lehrer Is it true -- USA Today had a story today which said there were roughly 65,000 Americans, Ithink that was the round figure -- in both of the countries -- most of those in India.Is that correct? 

Colin Powell : The numbers are in that range, and my best information, even higher than that.But that really reflects those we know about that we have records on, or who have at least checked inwith our embassies. There may well be thousands more who arethere living in the country that we are not aware of or are not keeping track of or haven't checked in to usto register themselves in our tracking system. So it is a largenumber of the order of magnitude that you just mentioned, or even higher.

Jim Lehrer Mr. Secretary, finally on this issue, do you have the -- is there an urgency to it?I mean, are you and your colleagues, not only here in the US administration but all the others youmentioned earlier -- the EU and Jack Straw and others -- do you have a feeling that if something -- if thesefolks don't stand down fairly soon, this thing could blow up? 

Colin Powell : There is an urgency to it. We are deeply concerned.The situation has not improved in the last month or so. Wewere receiving assurances from President Musharraf that infiltration activity across the line of control wouldbe ended, but unfortunately we can still see evidence that it was continuing.He has now given assurances again, and these assurances are more positive, and we hope he is now givingthe necessary orders and taking all the necessary actions to stop the infiltration.

Andif we see that, if everybody can detect the end of this kind of infiltration activity, then we have a basisfor calling upon the Indians to start moving in the other direction with respect to their mobilization andpreparation for attack actions.

Andso there is a sense of urgency and there are also some weather issues as to when you actually could mount suchan operation before the monsoon season starts later in the summer. Sothere is a sense of urgency, and that's why we are all involved -- the European Union, bilaterally with manyof our friends. I have spoken to the Chinese Foreign Minister andI know that they have engaged themselves. Prime Minister Blairhas been making calls. President Chirac of France has beencalling and Kofi Annan has been making calls. So we are allheavily engaged in trying to find a way out of this crisis.

Jim Lehrer In its simplest terms, Mr. Secretary, is it that if India does not get evidence that the infiltrationhas stopped, that they're going to take military action sooner rather than later? 

Colin Powell : I would not presume to speak for the Indian Government. It'salways a political decision as to whether or not military action will be taken in a democracy such as India,but I hope that as they examine the situation and as they look at the consequences of what could -- theconsequences that could flow from such a decision, that they will exercise maximum restraint while we wait andsee what is happening over the line of control. And I still feelthere is a way out of this crisis and it need not result in war.

Jim Lehrer Mr. Secretary, thank you very much. 

Colin Powell :Thank you.