Making A Difference

The Wild West Show

The rise of the religious right-wing threatens to overwhelm the country's return to democracy, as also Musharraf the President. <a href=pti_coverage.asp?gid=40>More Coverage </a>

Advertisement

The Wild West Show
info_icon

You craved for democracy, and you wanted an end to military dictatorship. You believed the panacea for a tormented country was the ballot box. You thought a progressive soul of Pakistan would emerge from it. You consequently mocked those who were apprehensive of the religious parties, surfing the tide of anti-America sentiments to come within smelling distance of power. Pakistan is moderate, you were told; Pakistan eschews extremism. But then they opened the ballot box, and you were left astounded—not because the electorate had returned a hung National Assembly but because an alliance of six religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), was all set to form the government in the North West Frontier Province, perhaps even in Balochistan, and with any luck, at the Centre as well. You would have been forgiven had you, on the day the election results trickled in, rushed to the nearest market to buy yourself a burqa.

Nothing was impossible in Musharraf's Pakistan. Everything is possible even now. For starters, imagine Maulana Fazlur Rehman, of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur) or JUI(F), as the prime minister of the country; think of Liaquat Baloch, of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), as the speaker of the National Assembly; conceive of Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani, of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (JUP), as chairman of the Senate. Now imagine the troika holding the posts simultaneously, not ignoring the fact that the chairman of the Senate is anointed as acting president in the absence of the incumbent.

Do not snigger, this could well be in the future contours of Pakistani politics, as friends consult foes, and political stalwarts hunt for partners to cobble together a coalition government. In retrospect, it now seems foolish to have expected anything different after the brazen bending of every rule to keep at bay liberal forces.

The MMA's victory wasn't only because it filled a vacuum in the absence of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif—and the poor voter turnout it in turn created. It swept the nwfp and performed well in Balochistan—the inimical impact of policies framed in Islamabad on these two provinces. Whether it was the millions of Afghan refugees escaping from the Soviet invasion or, more recently, from America's deadly daisy-cutters, the denizens of these two provinces have taken them all in over the last two decades, paying a heavy price in the process.

They were willing to endure all this in the supreme national interest, and because of kinship loyalties to Pashtoons and Balochs across the border. But Musharraf's U-turn on Afghanistan, and his support to the United States, riled them no end. The US was killing their brethren in what they perceived as a war against Islam. Always considered more conservative than other Pakistanis but never prone to voting for the religious parties in overwhelming numbers, this time they saw in the ballot a chance to express their anger against Musharraf—and the United States. Washington's war-mongering against Iraq, and its partisan role in Palestine, only bolstered the resolve.

Dr Tariq Rehman, professor of South Asian Studies at the Qaid-e-Azam University, says the religious Right can't be wished away. He explains, "The Right will retain its allure as long as the state does not deliver goods and services, and the external players do not stop fighting unjust wars."

The MMA's performance (45 seats) has stumped Musharraf, who dreamed of a hung National Assembly and a pliant prime minister who would never be a threat to him. What he has instead is a Frankenstein's monster, legitimised and grossly empowered. There is talk now that ideological differences among disparate parties could prevent government formation, and even compel the junta to call for fresh elections.

But, really, that would be the last option. For the moment, though, the reliable punters of the establishment have been mouthing slogans on forging a "government with national consensus". The situation is a piquant one for mainstream political parties. For instance, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) or PML(Q), with 77 seats, could find it difficult to align with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) (with 63 seats) as the former had campaigned against the corruption of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and their respective parties. The obverse is equally true: the PPP had dubbed the PML(Q) as the King's Party, accusing it of tailoring democracy to the General's requirements. Many parties feel such opportunistic alliances could alienate voters and boost the MMA.

No wonder the MMA is playing its cards shrewdly, quite prepared for the long haul to power. Its leaders have staked claims to the posts of prime minister and the speaker of the National Assembly. Observers, however, feel the MMA would ultimately exchange the post of prime minister for the chairmanship of the Senate. It's believed that the MMA wants to sit on neither the treasury nor the Opposition benches, so as to retain its right to vote according to conscience.

Indeed, why should the MMA want to form the government, plagued as Pakistan is with gargantuan economic problems which even the most sagacious prime minister can't solve. The increase in petroleum prices last week is a harbinger of what is to follow. Second, it is inconceivable that Musharraf will do a U-turn on the United States. These two issues—economic improvement and the war on terrorism—goes to the heart of the MMA campaign, the precise reasons for its strong showing. It would prefer people to become completely disenchanted with mainstream parties, rather than risk its support base and fritter itself in a rag-tag coalition.

At the moment, Chowdhury Shujjat, the new leader of the PML(Q) in the Lower House, insists it is his party's right to form the next government. His argument: the PML(Q) is the largest formation in the National Assembly. Though the PML(Q) numbers have swelled with several independents joining it, it still has to garner enough support to touch the halfway mark. Chowdhury Shujjat, though, has announced that he isn't in the race for the post of prime minister as he wants his cousin Pervez Ellahi to become the the chief minister of Punjab. The PML(Q)'s strongest candidate for the top job is Zafrullah Jamali, the Baloch tribal chief whom Zia-ul Haq had once shortlisted for prime ministership.

The establishment floated the name of the chief of the Millat Party, Farooq Leghari, as a consensus prime ministerial candidate. But the PPP recoiled in horror, preferring to play footsie with the MMA than support Leghari. Incidentally, it was Leghari who as president had booted Benazir Bhutto out into political oblivion. Similarly strapped is another establishment favourite, Aftab Khan Sherpao, who parted ways with Benazir, floated his own party, and managed to return to the lower House with two seats.

Many feel the election result is a vote of no-confidence against the three-year rule of Musharraf, and want the army to withdraw from the political arena. As Shaheen Sehbai, the editor of Washington-based web newspaper, South Asia Tribune, points out, "The best thing for the army would be to pull back all support and patronage from all political parties, let the elected representatives—whosoever they are and howsoever they came into the new parliament—work it out among themselves and form a workable government. Musharraf should resign as army chief immediately and appoint someone else. He may contest for presidentship if he thinks he can win it. Otherwise, he should go home with grace and dignity, before he is booted out and disgraced."

There are others who think Musharraf and the political class are headed for a showdown over the contentious Legal Framework Order (LFO). It was under the lfo that the military regime drastically amended the 1973 Constitution. But for the King's Party, most political outfits are averse to members of the National Assembly taking oath under the amended Constitution, and are united in the need for restoring the supremacy of Parliament. This tussle between Musharraf and the rest could spark off something of what Pakistan hasn't conceived as yet.

Advertisement

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement