Making A Difference

The LTTE Retreats

As the army closes in, the Tigers shift their base from Jaffna

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The LTTE Retreats
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TWENTY-FOUR hours after the army launched Operation Riviresa on October 17, LTTE supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran went on the air from the rebel radio station, appealing to the youth to join the battle. His message: "Without Jaffna we cannot achieve anything."

For over a decade, Jaffna has been the jewel in the LTTE’s crown—a well-fortressed headquarter town and the site of its main training camps and weapon factories. And yet, it was more than that.

"Jaffna was always the symbolic centre of what the LTTE calls the traditional Tamil homeland. Its loss would not only be a military setback but a powerful psychological blow to the LTTE," says Dr Arjuna Parakrama, a political analyst at Colombo University.

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The rebels took control of Jaffna peninsula and the northern mainland in 1985 when the army was restricted to the barracks during the India-sponsored peace talks in Thimpu. It lost control of the region to the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) from late 1987 to February 1990. Ever since the IPKF left, the rebels have run a de facto state with their own police force, judiciary and administrative system.

The operation has cost both sides dearly. "In the first 17 days, we lost 70 officers and 214 soldiers. Another 24 officers and 512 soldiers were wounded. We estimate at least 1,000 rebels were killed and over 3,000 wounded," said military spokesman Brigadier Sarath Munasinghe. Over 800 more soldiers are, in military parlance, ‘walking wounded’.

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The military has been advancing very slowly—only 4.5 km in a broad 2 km frontage in the first 17 days. At that juncture it had an equal distance to capture to reach the outskirts of Jaffna city. Given the mine-laden, booby-trapped route, the going could only get more treacherous.

Hence, the military’s attempts to dampen media reports that Jaffna was about to fall. "Our aim is to liberate the entire peninsula. We don’t necessarily have to capture the town immediately. We may decide to change direction and move southwards," said Munasinghe.

The heaviest fighting so far has been in and around Achcheli where the rebels had built a huge underground complex. "We have captured the underground headquarters of the LTTE’s air arm as well as a three-storeyed, air-conditioned underground hospital. They have two more such structures in the peninsula," the brigadier said.

With the army closing in on Jaffna, the LTTE has shifted its base outside the town. Prabhakaran also declared a state of emergency and a curfew—the first since the conflict began. This set off a civilian exodus from Jaffna towards the northern mainland and Chavakachcheri in the peninsula. "The LTTE is allowing them into Chavakachcheri, but not letting anyone out. It’s not clear whether they want to save the people or use them as a human shield," says an officer of a foreign NGO.

The military, too, smells something sinister. "The LTTE has nine major camps in that area. We believe they are preparing for an all-out battle in Chavakachcheri. With so many civilians packed into the area, our hands will be tied," a military officer said.

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The military has been ordered by President Chandrika Kumaratunga to safeguard civilian life and property. "We are moving slowly because we have to be careful not to harm civilians. We’ve had no official reports of a single civilian casualty, only one unofficial report that 10 civilians were killed in an air raid. That’s a remarkable achievement that no army in the world can claim," Munasinghe proclaims.

The government, conscious that capturing the peninsula at the cost of civilian support would be an empty victory, is rushing food items to areas under rebel control. "Even if we defeat the LTTE militarily, and we believe we can, it will still not end the ethnic crisis. The final solution will have to be political, with devolution of powers to the provinces," President Kumaratunga told the state television recently.

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But the military has a clear objective. "Operation Riviresa was planned in such a way that we’ll fight to a finish in Jaffna," says Munasinghe. "I don’t think it will be a long drawn out war."

For the LTTE, the loss of the peninsula would mean a loss of prestige and also military infrastructure that cost them tens of millions of rupees to put in place. It would also necessitate a change in modus operandi. "Capturing the peninsula doesn’t mean the LTTE is finished.

The rebels will retreat to the jungles of the northern mainland and revert to guerrilla warfare. Their problem will be to sustain the estimated 15,000 cadres in the jungles. In the long run, it will hit recruitment and the supply of arms, ammunition and foodstuff," says Dr Parakrama. So, in a sense, the Tigers will be back to square one.

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