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The Ethnified Nation

More than India's political map, the creation of new states could redraw political alignments

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The Ethnified Nation
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The passage of the State (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh) Reorganisation Bills in the Lok Sabha last week will not only redraw the map of India - Chhattisgarh, Uttaranchal and Jharkhand will now become the 26th, 27th and 28th states of the Union - but also throw up a clutch of new chief ministers, provide national parties an opportunity to govern new states and even possibly bring about a fresh political realignment.

It has other ramifications too. For one, Laloo Prasad Yadav - who'd earlier declared "Jharkhand will be created over my dead body" - should feel enthused, at least in the short term. After years of having done flip-flops on the Jharkhand issue, the rjd leader has reluctantly reconciled himself to losing the state's storehouse of mineral wealth. The sweetener is that Laloo's political clout has been enhanced. He will now no longer be dependent on Congress support in Bihar, boasting as his party does 114 mlas in the truncated 243-member Vidhan Sabha. Just eight short of a majority, Laloo can count on the Left parties, the bsp and independents to bridge the narrow gap. But he can't cut himself off from the Congress, as he will need Sonia at the Centre to bail him out in any renewed attempt to impose President's rule in his state.

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The truncated Bihar is also where Laloo's votebase is, and he can therefore hope to remain more than a match to the nda there. But what ought to bother him is that Bihar will now primarily become an agrarian economy, replete with declining production and bitter conflict between Naxalites and upper-caste landlords.

The BJP can console itself with the fact that the nda stands a fair chance of forming a government in Jharkhand, albeit with a slender majority of one in an 81-member House, including an independent supported by the Samata Party. The provisional assembly (comprising mlas who hail from the existing region of Jharkhand) and the government will stay in place until the Election Commission completes delimitation and the division of assets and liabilities is effected. If the BJP manages to form a government there, the top contenders for the chief minister's post will be Dumka MP and Union minister Babu Lal Marandi and Khunti MP Karia Munda. The jmm's Shibu Soren, with 12 mlas, has thrown his hat in the ring too, maintaining that Jharkhand is the culmination of 65 years of tribal agitation. But he will fall far short of the mark even if he manages Congress and rjd support.

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The Congress loses the most from the bifurcation of Bihar. Reduced to 12 (including speaker Sadanand Singh) in the Bihar assembly, it will have only 11 mlas in the Jharkhand assembly.

Unlike Bihar, the ruling party in MP - again to the Congress' misfortune - stands to lose politically. On the flip side, the Congress will have 48 out of 90 mlas in the provisional assembly of the new state. Though chief minister Digvijay Singh is in no immediate danger, his task becomes more difficult in future. With the Congress stronghold of Chhattisgarh no longer part of MP, the BJP's prospects in the next assembly elections will have improved considerably.

But Chhattisgarh itself may cause Congress president Sonia Gandhi a few headaches, with a long list of competitors for the CM's post. The Shukla brothers, party spokesperson Ajit Jogi, Arvind Netam, Charan Das Mahant, veteran leader and former CM Motilal Vora, to name a few. It is this squabble in Chhattisgarh that imperils the Congress. While the BJP is in a minority with just 32 mlas (and one candidate for chief minister, Ramesh Bais), it is willing to accommodate disgruntled Congressmen who could split the party.

The picture in Uttaranchal is clearer and weighs heavily in the BJP's favour. The provisional assembly will comprise 31 members, 17 from the BJP and with a smattering of groups like the Uttaranchal Kranti Dal, SP, Congress and bsp. The elected body will have 70 mlas. The most likely candidate for CM is Ramesh Pokhriyal, currently a minister in Ram Prakash Gupta's cabinet. The other contender is Maj Gen B.C. Khanduri, currently BJP chief whip in the Lok Sabha. The Congress has only one MLA and one MP from Uttaranchal and although hill leaders like Harish Rawat have welcomed its formation, its base in this region has eroded over the years.

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For UP chief minister Gupta, the situation would be precarious but for the fact that no party is keen on disturbing him at the moment. Having lost 17 mlas to Uttaranchal, he would have been in a minority but for independents' support.

The contentious Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar issues are yet to be sorted out. Advani hinted at a future solution but this is messy since yet another act of Parliament will be needed. But the Bill does allow the President to pass any ordinance facilitating the formation of the new state. This could be employed to effect a compromise.

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Significantly, the Uttaranchal Bill is the only one which mentions, in the statement of objects and reasons, that the land ceiling act of the mother state (UP) will apply to the new state. Though this was included to reassure the Sikhs of Udham Singh Nagar, home ministry officials say there's nothing to prevent a state government from enacting new land laws.

While the Congress backed the Bill, its MPs from Punjab staged a walkout over the proposed inclusion of Udham Singh Nagar. While Punjab chief minister Prakash Singh Badal has accused defence minister George Fernandes of having misled the House by claiming that the sad had approved the Bill, Congress MP Jagmeet Singh Brar maintains the two are hand-in-glove.

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Likewise, the bjd staged a walkout over the inclusion of Saraikela and Kharsuan in Jharkhand. Home ministry officials say that Orissa's demand for the two districts is not justified on linguistic grounds - a small percentage there speak Oriya.

Equally interesting to watch will be the financial package for the new states. Their demands are likely to scale dizzy heights; the Centre will obviously seek to trim it down. For the new CMs, more funds at their disposal would give them the chance to prime the patronage system.

Also, the creation of new states is expected to encourage other sub-regional groups to demand their own separate entities. Will we see the 29th and 30th states soon?

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