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Sunday, Nov 28, 2021
Outlook.com
elections '09

The Bharat Hedge Fund

At considerable risk of getting it wrong, in the spirit of the poll season, we give you the Outlook predictions

The Bharat Hedge Fund
The Bharat Hedge Fund
outlookindia.com
-0001-11-30T00:00:00+05:53
States ELECTIONS '09
The Bharat Hedge Fund

Outlook has undertaken this exercise at considerable risk of getting it wrong! We asked our state bureaus/correspondents to come up with an estimated tally from their region. Many were hesitant for the mandate is so fractured, contests so closely fought, it's risky to attempt even intelligent guesses. But we persuaded them to take the plunge. In the spirit of the poll season, we give you the Outlook predictions:
States Total Cong UPA Allies Third 
Front
Other Parties NDA Allies BJP
Andhra Pradesh One of the most closely contested three-cornered contests. 42 17 TDP+: 21 PR: 4
Assam The presence of a Muslim party, AUDF, cuts into the Cong voteshare. 14 4 AGP: 4  4
Bihar The NDA makes massive gains, riding on Nitish Kumar’s image. 40 3 RJD+: 9 JD(U): 19 9
Chhattisgarh BJP CM Raman Singh’s grip over the state is firm, ruling party to lose only a few. 11 3 8
Delhi The Congress citadel holds firm under the stewardship of Sheila Dikshit. 7 6 1
Goa Once again, in this small state the two parties are equally poised. 2 1 1
Gujarat Narendra Modi’s popularity will help the BJP make small gains but the Congress does have support in rural and tribal areas. 26 10 16
Haryana The BJP would have fared better if it had not tied up with Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD. 10 7 3
Himachal Pradesh The Congress loses out. No real anti-incumbency against the BJP regime in the state. 4 1 3
J&K A significant moment would be the victory of a separatist, like Sajjad Lone. 6 2 NC:2 1 1
Jharkhand The BJP will not only hold its ground, it’s also set to make gains. 14 2 JMM: 2 10
Karnataka Close contests in 12 seats indicates results can swing any which way. 28 10 JD(S): 4 14
Kerala Anti-incumbency, the ruling Left’s unpopular postures etc will make sure their sweep last time isn’t repeated. 20 12 1 LDF: 7
Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains popular so modest losses for the saffron party. 29 8 21
Maharashtra The battle here is neck-and-neck although the Congress-NCP has its nose ahead. 48 13 NCP: 13 SS: 12 10
Orissa New Third Front candidate Naveen Patnaik fights assembly and LS after ditching BJP. 21 8 BJD: 10 3
Punjab A strong anti-incumbency wave against Sukhbir Badal will help the Congress. 13 9 SAD: 2 2
Rajasthan After its defeat in the assemble polls last year, the BJP has recovered some ground 25 13 12
Rest of Northeast: Local factors; P.A. Sangma of NCP trying to cut into Cong influence. 11 5 Left:2 2 2
Tamil Nadu: If the pro-Jayalalitha mood builds into a wave, all bets are off 39 6 DMK+: 7 AIADMK+: 26
Uttar Pradesh There is a great undercurrent of support for the Congress but the party is unlikely to convert it into seats 80 15 SP: 23
BSP: 27
LD:2 13
Uttarakhand The BJP’s B.C. Khanduri will harness goodwill for the candidates, despite infighting. 5 2 3
Union Territories Save for the isolated case, UTs tend to go with the party ruling in Delhi. 6 5 1
West Bengal After 30 years, the Left bastion is beginning to crumble. 42 7 TMC: 11 23 1

543 169 36 93 68 39 138

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