April 10, 2020
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Survey Highlight

Summarised prospective voting patterns and results, Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins and Gujarat riots handling.

Survey Highlight
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Survey Highlights

Main Page ! Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan ! Chattisgarh

 

Main Findings

A. Opinion on the issue of Ms. Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin

The respondents were asked their opinion about the foreign origin issue of Ms. Sonia Gandhi of Congress(I) and her candidature for the post of Prime Minister of India. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base: All Respondents Delhi Rajasthan Madhya 
Pradesh
Chhatisgarh
% saying: % % % %
Sonia Gandhi is originally a foreigner and hence should not become the Prime Minister of India 28 37 34 39
Sonia Gandhi is now an Indian citizen and her foreign origins do not matter for being the Prime Minister of India 62 31 53 44
Don’t know / can’t say 10 11 12 17

A majority of respondents in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are of the opinion that Smt. Sonia Gandhi is now an Indian citizen and her foreign origin in no way deters her from being the Prime Minister of India. The opinion is divided in Chhatisgarh on the issue.

B. Handling of Gujarat riots by Central Government

The respondents in Delhi and Rajasthan were asked their opinion about the way Gujarat riots were handled by the BJP. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base: All Respondents

Delhi

Rajasthan

 

3047

7328

% saying:

%

%

Improved my opinion of the Party

32

45

Worsened my opinion of the Party

23

18

Has not changed my opinion of the Party

13

8

Don’t know / can’t say

32

29

  32% of the respondents in Delhi and 45% of the respondents in Rajasthan have said that their opinion about the BJP has improved by the manner in which the Central government had handled the Gujarat riots.

1. Intention to vote in the coming Vidhan Sabha elections

As mentioned earlier, a sample of the voting public were interviewed in 123 Assembly Constituencies in the four states of Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh.  

 

Delhi

Rajasthan

MP

Chhattisgarh

Base: All

3047

7328

8295

3266

% who said they would;

%

%

%

%

Definitely will vote

82

94

89

84

Most probably will vote

14

4

8

13

Probably will vote

3

1

3

3

Probably will not vote

0

0

0

0

Definitely will not vote

1

1

0

0

Don’t know / Can’t say

0

0

0

0

 

2.  Whether decided who to vote for in the coming Vidhan Sabha elections 

The respondents those who said that they were likely to vote in the coming elections, were asked if they had made up their minds about which party they would vote for. 

 

Delhi

Rajasthan

MP

Chhattisgarh

Base: Likely to vote in the coming elections

3022

7278

8242

3249

% who said they had decided the party

%

%

%

%

Yes

86

91

93

66

No

14

9

7

34

More than 90% across the four states stated that they definitely or most probably intended voting in the forthcoming assembly elections to be held on December 1, 2003 and more than 90% in  Rajasthan and MP said that they had even decided on which party they would vote for.  Where as in Delhi 14% and about a third (34%) in Chhattisgarh had not made up their minds about which party to vote for.

3.1 DELHI  

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections  

Party

Actual vote in 1998 (%)

Voting intention for 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number of seats in 1998

Projected number of seats for 2003

BJP

34.0

33.4

-- 0.6

15

11

INC

47.8

49.7

+ 1.9

52

56

Others

18.2

16.9

-- 1.3

3

3

Total

100

100

0

70

70

In Delhi it seems that Congress is likely to improve upon its performance over 1998 when it had swept to power with a big majority. It is likely to improve its tally to 56 seats from 52 seats at the expense of BJP, which will now be reduced further to 11 seats from the 15 seats that it obtained in 1998.

3.2   RAJASTHAN 

 Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections  

Party

Actual vote in 1998 (%)

Voting intention for 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number of seats in 1998

Projected number of seats for 2003

BJP

33.9

36.4

+ 2.5

33

67

INC

45.2

40.7

-- 4.5

153

113

Others

20.9

22.9

+ 2.0

14

20

Total

100

100

0

200

200

In Rajasthan though there is a  swing of 4.5% against the Congress and also a swing of 2.5% in favour of the BJP, it does not appear to be enough to dislodge the Ashok Gehlot government which came to power in 1998 with a substantial lead of over 11% in vote share over the BJP. 

Thus, the BJP is expected to double its tally of seats from 33 in 1998 to 67 in 2003 and for the Congress it would go down from 153 seats to just 113 seats that is still an overall majority out of the 200 seats in Rajasthan.

3.3 MADHYA PRADESH

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in 1998 (%)

Voting intention for 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number of seats in 1998

Projected number of seats for 2003

BJP

38.8

43.1

+ 4.3

83

147

INC

41.2

34.2

-- 7.0

124

58

Others

19.9

22.6

+ 2.7

23

25

Total

100

100

0

230

230

In Madhya Pradesh BJP appears to be a clear winner and is expected to sweep into power with a great majority of 147 seats out of a total of 230.  The Congress being relegated to a distance second position with 58 seats.  The dissatisfaction with the Digvijay Singh government in the State has led to a negative swing of 7% against the Congress as compared to 1998 with the BJP reaping in most of the advantage.

3.4 CHHATTISGARH

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in 1998 (%)

Voting intention for 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number of seats in 1998

Projected number of seats for 2003

BJP

39.5

40.0

+ 0.5

36

43

INC

41.0

40.0

-- 1.0

48

43

Others

19.5

20.0

+ 0.5

6

4

Total

100

100

0

90

90

According to the poll, in Chhattisgarh there has been a swing of 1.0% against the Congress and 0.5% in favour of the BJP and this  is likely to result in an even share of votes between the two parties. Thus, both Congress and BJP are likely to get 43 seats each out of a total of 90 seats in the state.  

This is on the assumption that there will be free and fair elections as some doubt has been expressed by people and even by the Election Commission about the impartiality of the officials in charge of the elections. 

Chhattisgarh was a part of Madhya Pradesh till Nov. 1,2000 and Congress has been in power in Madhya Pradesh for the last ten  years. We have observed anti incumbency factor at play in Madhya Pradesh resulting in a swing against the Congress. It is felt that there is a certain rub off in Chhattisgarh of the situation in Madhya Pradesh. 

Further, the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before the exposure of Sh. Dilip Singh Judev accepting a bribe resulting in his resignation from the Central Government. Hence, the results do not reflect the likely impact of this episode on the final outcome as we go forward.

If the Judev scandal gathers steam in the next few days, it is likely that a reversal happens and Congress could win the elections especially when the margin in vote share is so narrow.


Introduction & Background

The terms of State Legislative Assemblies in four states viz., Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are coming to an end on the following dates

No

State

From

To

Delhi

Dec. 14, 1998

Dec. 13, 2003

Rajasthan

Jan. 4, 1999

Jan. 3, 2004

Madhya Pradesh

Feb. 1, 1999

Jan. 31, 2004

Chhattisgarh

Feb. 1, 1999

Jan. 31, 2004

In view of this the Election Commission has decreed to hold the elections to these four State Legislative Assemblies together on 1st Dec. 2003.

Outlook commissioned ACNielsen to conduct an Opinion Poll to gauge the current mood of the electorate and also to determine the likely outcome of the four State Assembly Elections. The Poll also sought to determine the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the Political Parties in the fray and who was considered to be the most capable of being the Chief Minister in each of the four states.

Purpose

The main purpose of the research, as indicated earlier, was to determine the likely outcome of the State Assembly Elections and also to predict the number of seats likely to be won by each of the main Political Parties (or alliances) contesting the elections.

More specifically we sought to determine the following from the study;

(i) Past voting patterns both the last General Elections and State Assembly Elections

(ii) Voting intentions for the forthcoming Assembly Elections (Party of 1st choice and Party of 2nd choice) and reasons for voting for a particular Party.

(iii) Image of the main Political Parties contesting elections in the State on a number of factors such as law and order, stability, efficiency, water scarcity; drought etc.

(iv) Level of satisfaction / dissatisfaction with the present Governments in the States.

(v) Evaluation of the performance of current State Chief Ministers – Shiela Dikshit in Delhi, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Digvijay Singh in Madhya Pradesh and Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh.

(vi) Major issues being faced in each of the four States and the Party that is perceived to be most capable of handling these issues.

(vii) Image and views on key leaders in the main Political Parties in each of the four States.

(viii) Who is considered to be the most capable of being the next Chief Minister in each of the four States.

(ix) Demographic profile of the voters including religion, caste, literacy level etc.

Methodology

The poll was conducted using a structured questionnaire and personal interviews were conducted among a sample of the voting public chosen at random.

The proposed coverage of Assembly Constituencies in each state and the actual coverage including the proposed and actual sample sizes achieved are given in the table below. In each Assembly Constituency approximately 180 men and women were polled for the survey. In all a total of 21,936 interviews were conducted in the four states as illustrated below:

State

Total number of ACs

Proposed coverage of ACs

Actual coverage of ACs

Total sample size proposed

Actual sample size achieved

Delhi

70

14

17

2,520

3,047

Rajasthan

200

40

42

7,200

7,328

Madhya Pradesh

230

46

46

8,280

8,295

Chhattisgarh

90

18

18

3,240

3,266

TOTAL

590

118

123

18,240

21,936

The assembly constituencies that were chosen for the poll were selected on the basis of the voting pattern as observed over the last two state assembly elections. Consideration was also given to:

· Swing in the selected assembly constituencies to closely match the overall swing in the state as a whole;

· Assembly constituencies that have shown shifts across parties over the two elections;

· Assembly constituencies that have elected representatives with small margins.

· VIP constituencies to be omitted.

While selecting the assembly constituencies care was taken to ensure that they were geographically spread to cover all the regions of the State. The list of assembly constituencies that were covered in the study in each state is appended to this report.

The sample in each assembly constituency was split between Urban and Rural areas with the actual split depending on whether the assembly constituency is primarily urban or rural. At the time of analysis these figures were weighted to reflect the actual Urban / Rural distribution in each assembly constituency / State.

In the urban areas interviews were conducted with men and women in the ratio 60:40, and only males were interviewed in the rural areas, as we normally do for such studies.

All interviews were conducted by trained ACNielsen investigators working under supervision. They were personally briefed by a senior ACNielsen executive.

The fieldwork for the study was conducted from 30th October to 9th November 2003.

A note on the model used for forecasts

We have been collecting political opinion poll data since 1989 and have now developed a sophisticated and robust model for forecasting the number of seats a party is likely to obtain.

In the forecasting model that we have developed we lay a strong emphasis on attitudes people express towards a particular party, in terms of how they feel each party can tackle current political issues such as ‘riot handling’ / ‘communal disharmony’ / ‘rising prices’ / ‘communalism’ / ‘law & order’ etc. These responses are weighted to arrive at a ‘surrogate’ voting intention for each individual.

Also the model gives more emphasis on the swing in voting intentions rather than actual voting intention. This is because it is difficult to get a totally representative sample covering all communities and backward classes. The swing factor is subject to less error than the actual voting distribution. The swing data is usually superimposed on the last election results to arrive at the new forecast.

Main Page ! Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan ! Chattisgarh

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