Thursday, Dec 09, 2021
Outlook.com
up elections

Straws In The Mustard Field

With UP as test case, Rahul Gandhi sets out to discover whether he’s worthy of the party’s and nation’s mantle

Straws In The Mustard Field
PTI
Straws In The Mustard Field
outlookindia.com
-0001-11-30T00:00:00+05:53

If This, Then That

What the UP verdict portends for the ‘Ra’ one

  • 60-70 If Congress gets around 60-70 seats in UP—and also wins in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur—it could be status quo at the Centre with the expectation that Rahul will take over at a later date. Manmohan Singh will continue as prime minister as the party will argue that it can manage despite his image slipping.
  • 100 If Congress crosses the threshold of 100 seats, then the clamour for Rahul to take over and lead the party into the 2014 polls will attain its own momentum. The crown prince would become king, eclipsing other power centres, with his team gaining control over old-timers in the party.
  • 30-40 If the Congress flops in UP, getting just 30-40 seats (up from the existing 22), the state Congress outfit and some party leaders will take the rap. There won’t be direct attacks on Rahul, but the clamour for his sister Priyanka to take over will rise. He’ll be seen as someone who can’t deliver in 2014.
  • 3/5 A drubbing in UP along with defeats in two of the other four states can also trigger a process where the Manmohan Singh government can come under pressure in the Budget session of Parliament. This process will be accelerated particularly if the BJP does better than the Congress in UP, holds on in Uttarakhand and Punjab and wins Goa.

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