National

Still A Three-horse Race

The Congress is ahead in the electoral sweepstakes, with the BJP close behind. But the large number of undecided voters could hold the key

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Still A Three-horse Race
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NINE hundred and twenty million Indians are breathlessly asking just one question: who is going to form the next Government at the Centre? Can any party or combine get a clear majority in the 11th Lok Sabha? And if, as is commonly believed, there is to be a coalition government in New Delhi, will it be stable? The torrent of queries only reflects the sense of acute uncertainty among the people on the eve of the general elections, polling for which (barring Jammu and Kashmir) will take place on April 27, May 2 and May 7.

An extensive opinion poll carried by Outlook-DB-MRAS in 83 Lok Sabha constituencies, spread over 15 states and carried out in the second and third weeks of March, suggests strongly that the fears regarding the elections throwing up a hung Lok Sabha and the stability of the next Government are not entirely unfounded. The major finding of the poll as politicos gear themselves up for the heat and dust of the coming electoral battle is that none of the three major political combines—the Congress-AIADMK alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena duo and the assortment of parties in the National Front and the Left Front—have enough support to form a Government on their own. An analysis of the responses of the 15,450 respondents indicates that the Congress-AIADMK alliance may emerge as the frontrunner with 191 seats in its kitty, well short of the 243 it managed in 1991. The poll also shows that the saffron brigade of the BJP and the Shiv Sena is poised to improve its position dramatically and touch the 170 mark. And that the much talked about third force—the National Front, the Left Front and their few allies—will find it difficult to get out of the third spot in the race with just about 139 seats.

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However, it must be borne in mind that it's early days yet. A large proportion of respondents—30 per cent—said they had not yet decided which party to vote for. The number of the 'undecid-eds' is the highest in Gujarat (50 per cent) where the BJP is plagued by dissidence, followed by Andhra Pradesh (49 per cent) where the voters have been left confused by the split in the Telugu Desam, and Maharashtra (48 per cent). Clearly, this is going to be one election where electioneering will be crucial and the undecideds (floating votes in psephological jargon) could well tilt the scales. It was probably with this in mind that the P.V. Narasimha Rao Government wanted to promulgate an ordinance shortening the campaign period from the customary three weeks to two weeks. The Prime Minister knew that the Indian Air Force planes at his disposal would give him a huge advantage in any whirlwind campaign. But President Shankar Dayal Sharma's disinclination to sign on the dotted line stymied the move.

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It was evident during the period of our survey that there was a near-complete absence of any wave or hawa in favour of any party. Unlike the 1989 elections when Bofors had emerged as the major issue in most of north India, and the 1991 polls when the proposed Ram mandir in Ayodhya had been well exploited by the Hindutva brigade, the upcoming elections appear to be devoid of any major issue—at least as far as the voters are concerned. It remains to be seen how the combines will tackle this in the course of the month-long electioneering ahead. As expected, the hawala scam too has failed to excite many people, with the perception that all politicians are corrupt gaining ground. In fact, the issue of corruption (along with the water problem) ranked third among the voters (8 per cent), way behind concern about employment opportunities (19 per cent) and price rise (13 per cent). Predictably, anxieties about the water problem were greatest in Gujarat (17 per cent), Karnataka (18 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (17 per cent). It is probably because corruption is perceived to be a non-issue that the Congress has emerged as the voters' favourite, despite 35 per cent being convinced that the Congress is the most corrupt political party.

As noted earlier, the Congress along with its ally, the AIADMK, is seen by the respondents as the frontrunner in the election sweepstakes, with the BJP-Shiv Sena combine close on its heels. And if there are any doubts that this is going to be a near thing, responses to the question about which politico was considered the most capable of becoming Prime Minister of the country should put them at rest. Rao, with 29 per cent backing, is still ahead, but only marginally so. The BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Atal Behari Vajpayee, is backed by 27 per cent of the respondents. While Rao understandably has the largest backing in his home state Andhra Pradesh (64 per cent), Vajpayee stands taller in Uttar Pradesh (36 per cent), Rajasthan (40 per cent) and Gujarat (41 per cent). And he scores a very creditable 39 per cent in Laloo Prasad Yadav's home state, Bihar. As for Jyoti Basu, he has the backing of 36 per cent of the people of West Bengal, but his all-India backing stands at a mere 4 per cent.

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Before going on to a state-by-state analysis of the survey, one should first explain why several states were left out. The northeastern states, barring Assam, have too few seats each to warrant a detailed investigation. In our final projections, we have assumed that the Congress will retain its 1991 position of eight of the 11 seats in the region. Similarly, it has been assumed that the Congress and the BJP will secure two seats each in Himachal Pradesh, which sends four MPs to the Lok Sabha. And in Punjab, we must confess that granting of five out of the 13 seats to the Congress is largely a desktop exercise which has taken into account the Akali Dal-BSP alliance and the fact that the Akali Dal did not contest the 1991 Lok Sabha elections. Following is the state-wise analysis of the opinion poll:

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Andhra Pradesh (total seats: 42). The Congress is bound to reap the advantage of the split in the Telugu Desam and is likely to romp home with 30 Lok Sabha seats. At present the Lakshmi Parvathi faction of the Telugu Desam seems to hold a marginal edge over the Chandrababu Naidu group, with the two likely to share about eight seats. The irony here is that while the Parvathi faction has come to an understanding with the Janata Dal, Naidu has the Left parties' support. Thus, we may have the curious situation of the two bitter rivals adding the eight seats they are likely to win to the National Front-Left Front kitty.

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Assam (total seats: 14). Notwithstanding the unification of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) the Congress is still likely to get half the seats in the state. The AGP and the CPI(M), which have a seat understanding, are likely to get three and one, respectively, with the BJP bagging three seats. The Janata Dal remains an uncertain factor here and is still trying to work out a deal with the AGP. This would increase the National Front-Left Front kitty by one.

Bihar (total seats: 54). It is still very much Laloo Yadav's domain, with the Janata Dal-Left combination all set to win 35 seats. But the survey shows growing support for the BJP, which is bound to be further bolstered by its alliance with the George Fernandes-Nitish Kumar led George Fernandes-Nitish Kumar led Samata Party. The combine could thus win over a dozen seats. But the Congress shows little sign of improving on its disastrous performance of 1991, and is likely to send just two MPs to the Lok Sabha. At the time of writing, there were reports about Congress attempts to work out an alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (Soren faction). If that happens, the Congress tally could increase marginally. However, our analysis presumes free and fair polls. If that does not hold good, it would be the BJP's loss and the Janata Dal's gain.

Gujarat (total seats: 26). The dissidence in the BJP does not seem to have much affected those who have already decided to vote. And going by the analysis of their attitudes, the party may win over 21 seats. But one must remember that there is a very high percentage of the undecideds here and they could tilt the final tally.

Haryana (total seats: 10). Once again the Congress is the hot favourite. However, former Union minister Ram Singh had not defected to the BJP at the time of the survey, and it is difficult to say at this point how much of an impact he will have. The BJP, despite the alliance with the Haryana Vikas Party, only has a marginal presence in the state.

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Karnataka (total seats: 28). The BJP registered a creditable performance in the 1991 elections, polling 28 per cent of the popular vote in the state. Since then, its vote share has steadily declined in the local elections. But the survey found a swing towards the party once again and it could hit the two-figure mark for the first time in a southern state. The Janata Dal is marginally ahead, with Karnataka emerging as the weakest state in the south for the Congress.

Kerala (total seats: 20). In the see-saw battle between the two traditional rivals, the indication is that the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) will emerge winner. Slender margin victories are common in Kerala, but are consistent throughout the state. The LDF looks good for about a dozen seats this time.

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Maharashtra (total seats: 48). The BJP-Shiv Sena combine seems poised to substantially improve its performance over the 1991 polls when it won nine seats. While the combine could double its presence in this western state, the Congress could still emerge as the single largest party. But if the swing towards the combine holds, the situation could be reversed.

Madhya Pradesh (total seats: 40). The BJP and the Congress seem to be evenly poised, with the former having the proverbial edge. Arjun Singh's departure has been something of a blow for the ruling party. Moreover, at the time of writing it was still not clear whether scam-tainted ministers Madhavrao Scindia, Vidya Charan Shukla and Arvind Netam would be denied tickets and turn rebels, thereby denting the Congress scorecard.

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Orissa (total seats: 21). It is here that the BJP could spring a surprise, winning close to half-a-dozen seats. The Congress and the Janata Dal are even placed and are a little ahead of the BJP, which is however closing in fast.

Rajasthan (total seats: 25). The BJP is more than comfortable here. Our poll shows a 3 to 4 per cent swing away from the Congress, a factor which could give the saffron party as many as 15 seats. The National Front-Left combine is virtually non-existent in the state.

Tamil Nadu (total seats: 39). While conducting the poll, we had assumed an alliance between the Congress and the AIADMK in this southern state, and our analysis shows that the combine could walk away with as many as 35 seats. But with the threatened split in the state Congress, that could be a shade optimistic at this stage.

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Uttar Pradesh (total seats: 85). The Lok Sabha polls could see a marginal improvement for the BJP over its 1991 performance when it won a creditable 51 seats. The Janata Dal's alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party could bring the National Front-Left Front combine a total close to 20. But the BSP bubble could burst.

West Bengal (total seats: 42). The state is still a red bastion and the Left Front looks poised to repeat its 1991 performance, winning nearly three dozen seats. The BJP's vote percentage is likely to go up. But this is unlikely to be translated into votes. 

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