July 26, 2020
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Only An Encore In Hindi Will Do

These are the states that made the 2014 BJP victory possible. And the situation now seems volatile.

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Only An Encore In Hindi Will Do
Only An Encore In Hindi Will Do

Lok Sabha 2014

284 ⁄ 332


26 ⁄ 26

  • As BJP barely made it to power in the 2017 assembly polls, it may lose some seats in 2019
  • How far can CM Vijay Rupani manage to regain lost ground?
  • Will the Union Budget’s pro-poor, pro-farmer push increase BJP’s popularity?


25 ⁄ 25

  • The rout in byelections signals a reverse sweep against BJP
  • Will the BJP replace Vasundhararaje before elections?
  • Will the 2014 trend reverse ­completely in favour of the Congress in 2019?

Uttar Pradesh

73 ⁄ 80

  • The unknown BSP factor: Will Mayawati join the SP-Congress alliance?
  • Performance of CM Yogi Adityanath will be a factor
  • Will Ram Mandir save the day for BJP?



31 ⁄ 40

  • Laloo Yadav in jail may work against RJD-Congress alliance
  • Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which later became a BJP ally, won two seats on its own
  • Will “mausam vaigyanik”—a Lalooism to describe Ram Vilas Paswan—remain a BJP ally?

Madhya Pradesh

27 ⁄ 29

  • Anti-­incumbency works against Shivraj Singh Chouhan
  • Whatever the assembly poll ­results later this year, a clean sweep for BJP is not likely in 2019
  • Congress is a divided house with three leaders working against one another


42 ⁄ 48

  • Will Shiv Sena remain in ­alliance with BJP or go it alone as it has threatened?
  • Will NCP leader Sharad Pawar fight alone, making it a four-corner contest again?
  • Will CM Devendra Fadnavis’ work override Maratha sentiments?


10 ⁄ 11

  • A repeat performance seems unlikely with strong anti-incumbency
  • Congress’ state unit is almost defunct with no leadership
  • The Ajit Jogi factor: Whose votes will his party eat into?


12 ⁄ 14

  • Difficult for BJP to repeat its 2014 performance as the Opposition may have gained
  • Can BJP overcome the ­infighting and discontent among the MLAs against the CM?
  • If JMM, Congress and RJD come together, it will be a big challenge


17 ⁄ 28

  • Siddaramaiah is giving a good fight to BJP and taking on PM Narendra Modi
  • Caste combination in the state is in his favour
  • Will B.S. Yediyurappa be able to provide sound leadership to BJP?


7 ⁄ 14

  • With a strengthened ­organisation in the state, BJP may ­improve its performance
  • The publication of National Register of Citizens (NRC)—seen as protecting Assam’s identity­—may help BJP
  • Strong presence of RSS cadres


7 ⁄ 7

  • A genuine three-corner contest on the cards
  • BJP unlikely to repeat a clean sweep
  • AAP and Congress may eat into each other’s votes


7 ⁄ 10

  • Manohar Lal Khattar’s poor ­performance as CM
  • Corruption cases against Congress leader and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda
  • Leadership crisis in Congress with Ashok Tanwar and R.S. Surjewala contending with Hooda

*The figures include BJP’s allies during the general election

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