Making A Difference

Mr Mush, Anyone?

Emergency is to be lifted. Can Benazir and Sharif abort Musharraf's 'civilian' play?

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Mr Mush, Anyone?
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New army chief Ashfaq Kiyani

Gen Kiyani has his work cut out, says defence analyst Gen (retd) Talat Masood. "His first job would be to bridge the civil-military divide... part of Musharraf's legacy. This divide has really widened in the last few months and it has not gone down well with the army. Kiyani also has the opportunity as COAS to give his undivided attention to fighting the forces of extremism and terrorism that are now Pakistan's enemy number one." Masood is among a dozen retired armed forces officers, including two air force and naval chiefs, who had published a letter asking Musharraf to step down as president as well as reinstate the pre-PCO (Provisional Constitutional Order) judiciary, withdraw media curbs and release political detainees.

The heads of the two largest parties— the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N)—echoed similar thoughts. Jubilant at the reception he got on his second homecoming in Lahore last week, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif said he couldn't see himself in the same job under President Musharraf. "We believe any government serving under Musharraf will be illegal and undemocratic," he added. A fortnight ago, Benazir Bhutto too said she wasn't willing to accept Musharraf as a civilian president. (She's chosen to stay silent on the issue since, following a telephonic chat with US deputy secretary of state John Negroponte.)

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Benazir files her nomination papers in Larkana

The nation's focus is now on Benazir and Nawaz: will the lifting of Emergency—Musharraf's set the date for December 16—suffice to ensure their participation in the January election? Or will they insist on other sureties such as reinstatement of the pre-PCO judiciary and a new chief election commissioner before withdrawing threats to boycott the elections? It's a waiting game for both now, each looking to see what the other will do. Neither of them would want to boycott the polls if the other contests, for it could lead to their being marginalised. Both also want to deny the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), or the 'King's Party', the chance to return to power, use the army's might again to rule for another five years. To make sure they achieve this goal, they need to combine in Punjab, which commands 148 seats in the 342-member National Assembly. Though the two ex-PMs are in touch, they haven't yet shown people all their cards.

Imtiaz Alam, editor of the South Asian Journal, implores the "opposition to not let the elections be hijacked". He explains: "It can sweep the next elections if Benazir and Sharif agree to make electoral adjustments in Punjab and run an effective campaign. The issues of restoration of the constitution, indemnification of the PCO and reinstatement of the deposed judges are to be decided by the next parliament which the opposition must capture—and capture it can."

Should Nawaz and Benazir come together in Punjab, or fight elections separately and still constitute a majority in the National Assembly (NA), then there would be little doubting Musharraf's fate: already weakened, he will be at their mercy. True, as president he can still invoke Article 58(2) B of the Constitution (once the Emergency is lifted and the PCO lapses) to dismiss the sitting NA. But a united political front can amend this article and snatch this power from Musharraf. In his last stint as prime minister, Nawaz Sharif did exactly that. Even the Musharraf-devised constitutional provision debarring a person from becoming prime minister a third time (both Nawaz and Benazir have served two terms) can be amended by a simple majority.

Obviously, Musharraf can still ram his way forward with a little help from the army. But then, as resident editor of the Dawn newspaper, Zafar Abbas, says, "A new army chief, no matter how loyal and trusted, will command the troops according to his own vision...and a new prime minister emerging from polls will certainly like to assert a bit more than previous prime ministers. In such a situation, the only way for Musharraf to survive will be to accept his role as a somewhat weaker player in the so-called troika (comprising the president, the prime minister and army chief)."

For the moment, Musharraf is likely to leverage his good relations with the generals to his advantage. He could, for instance, manipulate the election through the caretaker government and the chief election commissioner. (No surprises then in the demand for a new, independent election commissioner.) Again, little time has been given to candidates for campaign and, worse, processions and rallies have been banned. But even these deplorable methods are unlikely to prevent a further dilution of Musharraf's original script—a sharing of power between moderates and the army. Reason: the arrival of Nawaz on the scene, a possibility Musharraf hadn't factored in.

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Nawaz Sharif at the Lahore Press Club on Nov 27

In fact, former US ambassador Robert B. Oakley, who knows Pakistan as well as anyone, recently wrote saying Sharif's return could mark the end of Musharraf's political career. "Sharif may be the future of Pakistan, an eventuality the United States must prepare for. He commands a strong following and, most important, has traditionally been strongly supported by the Pakistani army and intelligence services," he wrote in the Washington Post.

This is partly because Sharif's turf is Punjab, which dominates the NA. By contrast, Benazir's borough of Sindh has only 61 seats. Sharif has also endeared himself to the electorate because of his unambiguous opposition to Musharraf, refusing, unlike Benazir, to cut a deal with him. He continues to, at least till date, insist on reinstatement of the deposed judiciary, another issue on which Benazir has turned silent. It's true she has had a headstart in the choosing of PPP candidates, but this advantage could be somewhat neutralised because of the buzz that Sharif is looking for 'winnable candidates'. This could see many PML(Q) candidates in the fray rallying behind him. How the two leaders resolve their rivalry will determine Pakistan's future.

Still, at least an element of the future is already in place, courtesy Musharraf's hubris—a bigger role for civil society. His climbdown last week was largely fashioned by the coming together of the media, lawyers, NGO activists and, lately, even students who believe in moderation and modernity. In fact, it was this section of the youth who gave a licking to the student wing of the radical Jamaat-e-Islami (which betrayed Imran Khan to the military regime), ransacking their offices in Punjab University.

As Pakistanis prepare for the political battle ahead, do spare a thought for the deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and the legal community. It was Chaudhry who fired the imagination and fury of the nation; it was the legal community which commendably kept the movement against Musharraf alive; even now several judges and lawyers either remain under house arrest or languish in jail. Here's hoping the political players don't betray their sacrifices.

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