National

It's A Long Way Home

Rao's pre-poll recce to Nandyal evokes a cynical response, as an angry NTR plans to settle scores

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It's A Long Way Home
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For, the one clear signal Rao sent out was that he would not change his constituency—he wants a re-run of the Telugu bidda sentiment that carried him through last time round. More generally, the visit was also oriented towards boosting the Congress prospects in the state. And, from all indications, on neither count can Rao take home turf for granted.

Son P.V. Rajeshwar Rao, who is the APCC general secretary, billed it as a "kick-start to the Congress campaign in Andhra Pradesh". The Prime Minister himself, typically understated, called his visit a "routine affair". The description was not far off the mark, despite Rao's gung-ho election speech projecting an optimistic tally of 350 seats for the Congress in the 1996 Lok Sabha poll.

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At both the public functions he attended, Rao chose to share a platform with state Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. Clearly, the party perceives Naidu as its main ally in the impending elections. It has been muted in its criticism of the Naidu government, even over the power crisis which has evoked demonstrations by the BJP. The stronger Naidu is, the more his destructive potential vis-a-vis charismatic former chief minister N.T. Rama Rao, explained a local Congress leader. "In a three-cornered contest, the Congress always gains," observed Rajeshwar Rao.

It was Rao's twelfth visit to his constituency since his election and, as such, no novelty for the denizens of Nandyal. The sizeable crowd at Kurnool was only to be expected, given the chief minister's presence. Tight security kept crowds away from the various inaugural functions attended by the Prime Minister in Nandyal town, where his visit was treated with a certain amount of cynicism. Townspeople cited the fact that while he has inaugurated over a dozen projects to benefit Nandyal, few have come to fruition.

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The Prime Minister has several reasons not to be complacent. A lot has changed between 1991, when he won with a margin of 5.8 lakh votes and 1996, when he faces the wrath of a wounded N.T. Rama Rao and the disenchantment of the Muslims with the Congress. Five of the seven assembly segments in Nandyal went to the Telugu Desam Party (TDP)in the 1994 elections. The Muslim community, comprising perhaps 20 per cent of the approximately eight lakh voters in Nandyal, is not inclined to vote Congress. "The demolition of the Babri Masjid is still fresh in our minds," said Mastan Ali, a resident of Nandyal town. Understandably, Rao, this time round, may be faced with a reduced margin.

The last time around, NTR had thrown his weight behind Narasimha Rao, declaring that the election of a prime minister from Andhra Pradesh's soil was a question of Telugu pride. This time he has a score to settle: he holds the Congress responsible for the loss of his chief ministership and is personally angry with Rao for not having backed him when Naidu revolted. "The only proper way out was and is the dismissal of this partyless government and imposition of President's rule in Andhra Pradesh," he observed.

That may look a remote possibility at this juncture, but one thing is certain: this time, Rao will be given no quarter. "I will field a strong candidate against Narasimha Rao and I tell you, I will see to it that he will lose," thundered Rama Rao. During 1991, Rao was undoubtedly aided by the fact that there was a Congress government in Andhra Pradesh. Drawing a parallel, NTR supporters claim a tacit understanding between Naidu and the Congress on the Lok Sabha polls in general and Nandyal in particular.

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As far as the state unit is concerned, it is still reeling from its debacle in the 1994 assembly polls. The party is counting on a split in the TDP vote, but its own ranks are divided. The Congress president acknowledged as much in his speech at the party headquarters in Hyderabad, saying that it could do well provided it remained united. And Rajeshwar Rao too threatened the rebellious "old guard'' with "stern disciplinary action", but then that's a tired threat which has little salutary effect.

As of now, the tallest figure on the electoral landscape is that of NTR. Blessed with a massive mandate from the people twice in the past, he is hoping for a hat-trick in 1996. That the NTR charisma still lingers is beyond doubt, going by the adulation he attracts at public meetings. If Naidu pulled off a party coup, NTR certainly commands public support, particularly among women.

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The equations show up in the pre-poll calisthenics by the different players, which are in full swing. A palpably nervous Naidu has hit the campaign trail in a big way, and he has decreed that his ministers do the same. Consequently, few members of his cabinet are to be found in Hyderabad. NTR, on the contrary, is conserving his strength for a massive statewide tour to be launched in the last week of January. His wife (and the alleged cause of Naidu's revolt against his father-in-law), Lakshmi Par-vati, is on an intensive campaign and is attracting respectable crowds. In each speech, she predicts the demise of the Congress in the state.

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Naidu commands the support of the majority of TDP MLAs and is very familiar with the party organisation. He was, after all, its chief architect. Extremely low-profile until the emergence of Lakshmi Parvati and his subsequent mutiny, he suffers from the handicap of being known to the people as "NTR's son-in-law" and is perceived as having derived his political legitimacy from his father-in-law.

However, the political scenario remains fluid, with plenty of ifs between NTR and a sweep in the 1996 Lok Sabha polls. "Only when  NTR himself hits the road will a clear picture emerge," says state BJP chief V. Rama Rao.

And Rao has borrowed a couple of tricks from NTR. He made a play for the women's vote during his address to a 2,000-strong convention of women in Nandyal town. In the last assembly poll, NTR had demonstrated—with his prohibition promise—that women in Andhra Pradesh are a strong political constituency. And so, the Prime Minister spouted pro-woman rhetoric, hinting that reservation for women in parliamentary and assembly elections would soon become a reality, as would reservation in central government jobs (the state government has already implemented a 30-per cent quota for women). Rao also agreed to boost the Podupulakshmi or thrift programme, which has become popular among women in the hinterland.

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However, rural women still credit NTR with delivering on his election promises of prohibition and rice for Rs 2 per kg. He retains his pro-poor image and hopes to convert it into votes, come April 1996. While NTR is hoping that the Left Front will align itself with him, Naidu has been pampering CPI and CPM MLAs ceaselessly. NTR rules out any hope of TDP unity. Even if Naidu were to knock at his door, he will not welcome his prodigal son-in-law. "That door is locked and sealed," he says firmly.

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