Hanging Modi Fire

The clock has turned full circle for Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. As he gears up for the make-or-break two-phase assembly election on December 11 and 16, many of the key individuals he once used to knock out his opponents are today on the other side of the fence. You only have to look at the political events of just three days in the past week:

• Oct 21, Ahmedabad: Former CM Keshubhai Patel, the seniormost BJP leader in the state, attends a function to honour party rebel and Modi-baiter Gordhanbhai Zadaphia and announces that his fight against injustice will continue. "Unless Ravana is destroyed," said Keshubhai dramatically on Dussehra day, "Ramrajya can't be ushered in."
  
• Oct 22, Amreli: Sadhus and sants led by Swami Avichaldasji convene a Hindu Dharma Raksha Sant Sammelan, where they pledge to work for the removal of Modi, announce the formation of the Hindu Suraksha Manch, and invite Uma Bharati to enter the election arena in Gujarat.
  
• Oct 23, Ahmedabad: Mukund Deobankar, sahprant pracharak of the RSS in Gujarat, says the Sangh won't support any party in Gujarat. "We'll remain uninvolved in the polls," he says. The same day, Praful Sanjaliya, president of another RSS front organisation, the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS), is quoted as saying that, if necessary, the BKS will coordinate with the Congress to remove Modi.

As he seeks life (and career) beyond the achievement of being the longest-serving CM of Gujarat, the strategic formations and impressive arsenal Modi built over the years to vanquish his political opponents within the BJP are now ranged against him. The biggest foe is clearly Keshubhai, for whom Modi once played principal strategist in the battle to oust Shankersinh Vaghela from the BJP. Zadaphia, Modi's home minister during the 2002 riots, too remains a constant irritant.

Modi's latest troubles, though, come from saintly quarters. Hindu sants, including erstwhile Modi-backer Avichaldasji Maharaj, have now turned against him. At a glittering, high-profile function sometime ago to showcase the mythical Saraswati coming alive, Avichaldasji, who was among an impressive line-up of religious heads gathered for the occasion, proclaimed, "Modi fooled us all. The place where the venerated river was brought alive is a dry ditch today." Then, at the sammelan in Amreli, the religious leaders issued a call to remove Modi three kilometres from where the CM was holding a public meeting. A gathering of Hindu sants was hurriedly organised at Modi's residence the next day, but met with a poor response. The VHP hand is clearly visible in the sants' disenchantment with the CM; its leader Praveen Togadia appears to have convinced the sadhus that Modi's attempts to divide groups like the VHP must be thwarted.

Keshubhai may still be with BJP but backs rebel legislator Zadaphia in public

Elsewhere, the BJP top brass claim that Keshubhai has been "handled" with the promise of moving Modi to the Centre in a post-poll scenario does not seem to bear out. The veteran still appears to be backing suspended MLAs like Zadaphia. Last week, he publicly praised Zadaphia for organising 80 meetings of farmers against "the unjust state government". Zadaphia too is quite open in declaring: "Keshubhai may not formally leave the BJP, but his guidance is available to us."

The rebel strategy is now clear. Keshubhai and former Union textile minister Kashiram Rana won't leave the BJP. Former CM Suresh Mehta and suspended rebel Zadaphia will resign from the party but will neither join the Congress nor contest elections. They'll run the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti which will coordinate the effort to defeat the BJP in Gujarat. However, a few rebel legislators will be ensured Congress tickets.

Lashing out at Modi, Suresh Mehta, the brain behind the evolving rebel strategy, says: "The BJP in Gujarat was built by thousands of workers. But Modi has turned everything on its head, and the high command remains a powerless mute spectator before this one man. Modi is a gasbag—all glitz, glitter and glamour—with little substance. Cut through the hype and you will see the true intent of his much-touted schemes."

Suresh Mehta: The ex-CM is said to be the brain behind the rebel strategy

So, forget parties, or ideology, elections in Gujarat will be only about one man. Votes will either be cast for or against Modi. No other BJP leader, be it L.K. Advani or Rajnath Singh, counts in Gujarat.

That's something Modi knows. For nearly six months, before the code of conduct came into effect on October 10, the CM, his ministers and all party local self-government functionaries were laying foundations or cutting ribbons almost every day, at public expense. They laid foundations for crematoriums, for public toilets already in use, inaugurated sewage systems, dhobi ghats, distributed clothes to the flood-affected, met ration-card holders. If Arjun Modvadia, leader of the Congress legislature party, is to be believed, "On August 24, eight ministers presided over 83 inaugurations and participated in 39 foundation-laying ceremonies in 43 villages in 15 tehsils of Saurashtra region of the state". Why, Advani visited Gujarat on September 25, and managed to inaugurate 25 projects in a day! "The Modi government," says Modvadia, "must have blown up some Rs 700 crore of public money on such wasteful splurges."

Modi himself lavished a great deal of time and attention on women and tribals. He addressed a string of mahila sammelans after an internal survey concluded that women were more likely to vote for him. Apprehension that tribals were abandoning the BJP were addressed with the announcement of a Rs 15,000-crore "Vanbandhu" package. The Congress describes this scheme as a fraud since it is not provided for in the state budget.

In fact, the Modi juggernaut would have rolled on had the Election Commission not played spoilsport. Prior to the code of conduct, the Modi government had transferred over 200 police inspectors and 100 deputy collectors besides many Gujarat administrative service officers down to the level of patwari. However, when the EC did the same—transfer his favourite officers, P.C. Pande, dgp, Gujarat, and Ahmedabad police commissioner J. Mahapatra, besides four ips officers and two district collectors—Modi wasn't happy. After all, what he does is for Gujarat's pride, what the EC does is a dent on it.