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Down To The Wire

The Congress-led UDF scrapes through

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Down To The Wire
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Kerala: Five Talking Pointsl

  • Did the flurry of scams in recent months, and Rahul Gandhi’s “old man” jibe, affect UDF margins?
  • The Congress hasn’t done well, the allies have a big share in numbers, will they demand their pound of flesh?
  • Will the UDF win spur a leadership battle among the Congressmen and could allies move over to LDF?
  • Will the CPI(M) bid goodbye to V.S. Achuthanandan despite the late-surge under his leadership?
  • Will Prakash Karat claim the good showing of the Left as his victory or will he give credit to Achuthanandan?

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Kerala :140
20062011
Parties/Alliances% VotesSeats% VotesSeats
LDF+44.17904568
CPI (M)30.456145
CPI8.091713
RSP1.4432
JDS2.4454
Independents6.0352
NCP2
UDF+36.78404672
Congress24.092438
Muslim League7.30720
KC (M)3.2679
KC (B)0.6211
KC (J)1
SJD2
RSP (B)1
Others+19.051000
Adjusted figures because of changes in alliances -- all figures based on pre-poll alliances in 2011. For the actual alliance-breakdowns as existed in 2006, please click here along with the various exit-polls

1. Kerala Congress which was part of LDF in 2006, split and the faction called KC (T) (Kerala Congress Anti-Merger Group) remained with the LDF while the faction called KC (J) moved to the UDF

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Rarely if ever is the loser the focus of an election story. But outgoing Kerala chief minister of the CPI(M), V.S. Achuthanandan—victorious despite his party’s loss—is forcing journalists to rethink the polls story. What ought to have been a cakewalk for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) turned out to be nothing short of a cliffhanger, all because of a spectacular fightback mounted single-handedly by the 87-year-old CM.

Unlike the sweeping mandate in the other states that went to polls, the UDF in Kerala has an edge of just four seats over the LDF. In fact, till about 2 pm in the afternoon on May 13, there were tense scenes at the Thiruvananthapuram party offices of the Congress and the CPI(M). The UDF finally won 72 seats to the LDF’s 68 in the 140-seat assembly. This, after their spectacular showing in the 2009 LS polls when the UDF had won 16 of the 20 seats on offer.

It was Achuthanandan who single-handedly retrieved much lost ground for the LDF in the last few months, helped on by a host of old corruption cases opening up against some of the UDF strongmen. “Despite the neo-liberal focus of the Pinarayi Vijayan faction, the CM’s pro-poor tilt did well,” says G. Gopakumar, former professor and head of the political science department in the University of Kerala. His other campaigns like against the landsharks in Munnar and the lottery mafia (despite being reined in by his party on occasion) also earned him the support of the middle class. “It had an Anna Hazare-like effect,” adds Gopakumar.

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Meanwhile, for the Congress-led UDF, it’s the partners who saved the day. The party itself could only manage a paltry 38 seats but the Muslim-backed iuml and the Christian coalition of the KC(M) pitched in big to tide it over. The BJP, despite the promised debut in two seats, again drew a blank. For sure, there will questions asked on the almost railroading nature of the campaign which was till some time ago a sure shot? Did Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s chiding of Kerala’s voters about having a 90-plus CM backfire? What of the UDF leaders facing legal action, one now in jail, a second facing another battle in the courts over a sex scandal?

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Also, where does this loss leave the Left in Kerala, especially the faction-ridden Marxists (state secretary Pinarayi’s lobby had worked assiduously in the last five years to marginalise the CM)? More importantly, could this wafer-thin loss have been averted if the Left’s forces had pulled together? They will have five years outside the offices of power now to mull over what could have been.

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