National

Cutting A Sorry Picture

A battered and bruised Congress pins its hopes on a hung Parliament and counts on non-BJP parties supporting its bid for another minority government

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Cutting A Sorry Picture
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That the Congress' prospects in the coming elections is more than a little shaky is obvious. And though a senior minister claims that "Rao is confident of winning nearly 230 seats and is certain that the Congress will emerge as the single largest party" and Home Minister S.B. Chavan talks about "a workable majority" in favour of the Congress, the figures do not match ground realities. The party rank and file is frustrated and there is widespread dissension.

But even at the cost of an exodus from the party, Rao did not compromise his authority and, during ticket distribution, had his way in each state—except in Maharashtra where he relented a little in favour of Sharad Pawar. For the time being, however, he has ensured that there will be no rival claimant to leadership within the Congress when the next Parliament is formed. The other likely scenario—a hung Parliament with the Congress getting more than the National Front-Left Front combine—would still leave Rao with enough leverage to try and join hands with non-BJP parties for a coalition, or at least solicit their support to keep the BJP at bay.

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However, Rao stands a chance only if his party emerges as the single largest close to the majority mark. Otherwise, potential rebels will be encouraged to ditch him. Even Scindia—he floated his own party—and Moopanar, who left the party more out of compulsion than anything else, will be open to supporting the Congress if Rao is not the leader. Says a Madhya Pradesh MLA and Scindia loyalist: "Why do you think Scindia did not contest as an independent but formed a political party? Because a merger with the party (Congress) would be much easier under provisions of the Anti-Defection Act." 

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In Madhya Pradesh, Scindia filed his nomination from Gwalior in the presence of 12 Congress legislators. This naturally poses a threat to the survival of the Digvijay Singh-led Congress government in the state—more so if the governor concedes to the Bharatiya Janata Party's demand for a trial of strength in the assembly. Further, developments in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh do not bode well for the party. Says a party general secretary: "Rao didn't realise Moopanar would go this far. He hoped to repeat '91's performance by aligning with the AIADMK and even assured Jayalalitha that the FERA and central agencies' probe (into corruption charges surrounding her) would go slow."

And despite his attempts to silence the BJP by implicating L.K. Advani and almost all other non-Left party leaders in the hawala case, the corruption plank seems to have boomeranged. P. Chidam-baram who, along with M. Arunachalam, quit the Cabinet on April 3 to contest on a TMC ticket, has revealed that there is concrete evidence of Jayalalitha's involvement in some corruption cases and that Rao is aware of it. Also, while he denied tickets to the former ministers chargesheet-ed in the hawala case, Rao cleared B. Shankaranand (Chi-kodi) and Rameshwar Thakur (Bhagalpur)—both indicted in the securities scam.

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In Andhra Pradesh, the party is hardpressed to control its internal bickering. And, with N.T. Rama Rao's widow Lakshmi Parvathi riding high on a sympathy wave, the informal pact with the Chandrababu Naidu may not help. Thus, Rao made a last-minute decision to contest from Berhampur in Orissa, with its 30 per cent Telugu population, besides home turf Nandyal.

Having got all powers vested in himself, Rao played all the usual games during the run-up to elections. He cleared Satish Sharma's name in Amethi once he got Sonia Gandhi's nod but, almost simultaneously, welcomed Congress (S) leader K.P. Unnikrishnan to the party, a move she had stalled two years ago. It was Rao's way of saying that Sonia was persona non grata beyond Amethi. 

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Rao delved deep into his bag of tricks to win support. In a stage-managed show, about a dozen ambitious, but rootless Muslim leaders, including the Naib Imam of Jama Masjid, offered him their support. B.P. Maurya (a turncoat who was made AICC general secretary after he ditched the Arjun Singh camp) won over BJP vice-president Arif Beg—a Madhya Pradesh leader without much of a base—and Ramvir Singh Bidhuri (Delhi Janata Dal) to the party fold. All this was in retaliation to Union minister Ram Singh's defection to the BJP recently. But more damaging was Scindia's move. Rao pan-icked and summoned Digvijay Singh to Delhi on April 5 and asked him to see if he could still convince Scindia, Kamal Nath and Arvind Netam to retire from the fray. Party spokesman V.N. Gadgil even withdrew an announcement that Scindia, Nath, Chidambaram and the others who had filed their nomination against the party's official candidates had been expelled from the party, betraying Rao's desperation. Nath and Netam relented but Scindia refused. Till the last minute, Rao and his coterie were trying to keep the doors open for a tactical patch-up. He convinced Jakhar and Buta Singh to put up their sons instead and persuaded Arvind Netam to withdraw in favour of his wife. But Chidambaram's exit affected the party in more ways than one. It delayed the release of the manifesto as he, along with Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, was responsible for listing the economic reforms, the second most important component after political stability in the Congress poll plank.

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Simultaneously, the PMO also tried to solicit support of some influential individuals like Syed Shahabuddin (who abruptly dissolved the Samata Party), former Lok Sabha speaker Rabi Ray and Chandrajit Yadav. While the latter two have declined, the Rao camp still hopes for an appeal from Shahabuddin to Muslims to defeat the BJP at any cost. The underlying message: don't make Babri Masjid an issue any more and vote Congress. But these are desperate moves and do not speak well of Rao's combat-readiness. Also causing worry is the near non-existent status of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the Moopanar-led revolt and his tie-up with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the ongoing feud between Rajasthan PCC chief Ashok Gehlot and Minister of State in the PMO Bhuvanesh Chaturvedi, the resignation of PCC campaign chief Vilasrao PCC campaign chief Vilasrao Deshmukh and the 'Pawar vs. the rest' scenario in Maharashtra, the slanging match between Somen Mitra and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal over four assembly candidates with a "criminal past" and her subsequent disappearance. In Delhi, Rao promised a party post to rebel H.K.L. Bhagat if he withdrew from Sadar and Delhi East but he refused, thus dampening the prospects of Union minister Jagdish Tytler and PCC chief Deepchand Bandhu respectively.

This apart, what worries Rao is the fact that for the first time Sonia Gandhi has given clear signs of entering politics. Those close to her say that she anticipates a Congress debacle and will join the party as a "saviour" after the elections instead of accepting Rao as her leader now. "She feels Rao is systematically humiliating Rajiv Gandhi, and (feels) provoked to join politics", says a 10 Janpath follower. "This is, however, only on the assumption that the party will be routed this time and that an unstable coalition will pave the way for another general elections," adds an aide.

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However, Rao has the advantage of being in the government—equipped as he is with feedback from different agencies. This will enable him to explore equations with individuals and smaller parties after the elections to retain power. Kanshi Ram's Bahujan Samaj Party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and, if necessary, even Laloo Prasad Yadav—which means a major chunk of the Bihar Janata Dal—have been identified as possible "friends" of the Congress.

A hung Parliament scenario could lead to splits, and another bout of feverish realignments, with horse trading always remaining a strong possibility. But for Rao—having unexpectedly ruled a full five years—the divide and rule game seems to be over. 

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