April 03, 2020
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Chhattisgarh

The Judeo scandal does not appear to tilt the balance in favour of the Congress.

Chhattisgarh
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Chhatisgarh

Chhatisgarh

Main Page ! Survey Highlights And Methodology
Delhi
! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan 

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party

Actual vote in 1998 (%)

Voting intention for 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number of seats in 1998

Projected number of seats for 2003

BJP

39.5

40.0

+ 0.5

36

43

INC

41.0

40.0

-- 1.0

48

43

Others

19.5

20.0

+ 0.5

6

4

Total

100

100

0

90

90

 

1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party

Respondents who had indicated a Party they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would vote for that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Main reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondents are summarized in the table below:

Congress - I

BJP

Base : Would Vote for.....

1261

1310

% saying

%

%

Will make roads

28

19

Can resolve issue of water scarcity

22

17

Will solve state problem

22

28

Can resolve the issue of power crisis

20

15

Voting from beginning

17

8

Will solve problem of poverty

10

6

Done good work

10

10

Will provide more employment

9

10

The main reasons for voting in favour of Congress (I) or the BJP were more or less similar and related to the development in the state particularly the infrastructure.  

2. Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to state the three main issues facing the State today. A large number of problems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10% of the respondents were :

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

3266

1079

2187

% saying..

%

%

%

Providing employment opportunities

60

67

57

Water problem

45

32

52

Improving roads in the state

38

31

41

Poverty

32

36

29

Electricity/Powder situation

32

26

35

Improvement of villages

17

13

19

Providing better education

15

17

14

As can be seen providing employment opportunities, water problem and improving roads in Chattisgarh are the main concerns among the people of Chattisgarh.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections

The respondents were next asked whether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All Sample

3266

1079

2187

% who said they voted for ;

%

%

%

Yes

85

83

85

No

15

17

17

85%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections

Base: Claim to have voted in

Congress (I)

BJP

1998 for

1157

1102

Party intend to vote now

% saying:

%

%

Congress - I

75

6

BJP

9

78

BSP (Mayawati)

1

1

NCP

2

2

Don't Know/Can't Say

13

13

9% of the respondents in the sample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said that they will vote for BJP this time. Where as only 6% of those who said they had voted for BJP now intend to vote for Congress (I) indicating some shift away from the Congress.  

5. Reasons for Shifting away from Congress (I)

Sample

Base : those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote for the BJP

99

% saying…

%

Not satisfied with their work

14

Want to try BJP

13

Corrupt

5

No development

5

Done good work (BJP)

4

No power supply

4

Will solve state problem

3

Village development

3

Didn't solve problems

3

Don’t Know/ Can’t Say

31

Most of the people are shifting away from Congress, because they are not happy with the work done by Congress in last ten years.  

6. Performance of Ajit Jogi as the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh

Of the 3266 people interviewed 85% were aware that Ajit Jogi is the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh. Awareness was relatively more in rural areas compared to urban areas.

The respondents were next asked to rate the performance of Ajit Jogi of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during his tenure in Chattisgarh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to “Very Poor”. The responses were:  

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

3266

1079

2187

% rating him

%

%

%

Very Good

7

9

6

Good

23

21

24

Average

29

33

27

Poor

20

14

22

Very Poor

9

9

9

Don’t Know / Can’t Say

12

15

11

Mean Score (out of 5)

2.98

3.08

2.94

 

The performance of Ajit Jogi as the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh has been rated as average by 29% of the respondents. Overall, 30% say that his performance has been Good or Very Good whereas about an equal proportion 29% say it has been poor or very poor.

He gets a ‘just below average’ rating of 2.98 on a 5-point scale.  

7. Main achievements of Ajit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance of the CM as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The main responses were:

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base: All those who rated performance of CM as very good or good

970

318

651

% saying

%

%

%

Improved roads in the State

45

43

44

Has solved the water Problem

34

26

38

Has done a lot for overall development of the State

30

29

30

Has improved power situation in the State

18

20

17

Provided better education

15

12

16

Has reduced poverty levels in the State

11

12

10

Provided employment opportunities

9

13

7

The main achievements of Ajit Jogi as CM of Chattisgarh are improvement in the condition of the roads in the state (45%) followed by solving water problem (34%) and overall development of the state (30%).

8. Main failures of Ajit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance of the CM as poor to very poor, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

All Sample

Urban

Rural

Base: All those who rated performance of CM as poor to very poor

942

245

696

% saying

%

%

%

Has not done enough for overall development of the State

51

40

55

Corruption has grown

23

25

22

Has not improved roads in the State

16

18

15

Has not provided employment opportunities

14

21

12

Has not improved electricity/power situation in the State

12

12

12

Has not solved the water Problem

11

8

12

Has not done enough to reduce poverty levels in the State

10

12

9

More than half the respondents are of the opinion that Ajit Jogi has not done enough for overall development of the State. Whereas 23% of respondents feel that corruption has grown in the state.  

9. Opinion about allegations against Ajit Jogi of procuring ‘fake tribal’ certificate

The respondents were then told that the former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati has alleged Ajit Jogi of procuring ‘fake tribal’ certificate and then they were asked what was their opinion about it. The responses are:

All sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

3266

1079

2187

% saying

%

%

%

The allegations against Ajit Jogi are true

27

26

27

The allegations are false and aimed at tarnishing the image of Ajit Jogi

17

17

17

Unaware of such allegations

25

24

25

Don’t know / Can’t say

31

32

30

More than half the respondents are either unaware about the allegation or have not given a response to this. More than a quarter of the respondents are of the opinion that allegation against Ajit Jogi is true.

10. Opinion about forgery charges against Ajit Jogi

The respondents were then told that Ajit Jogi has been charged with forging an Intelligence Bureau document and were asked what was their opinion about it. The responses are:

All sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

3266

1079

2187

% saying

%

%

%

Ajit Jogi is guilty of forgery

24

22

25

Ajit Jogi is not guilty of forgery

17

16

17

Unaware of this issue

26

24

26

Don’t know / Can’t say

33

36

32

More than half the respondents are either unaware about the forgery charges or have not given a response. About a quarter of the respondents are of the opinion that Ajit Jogi is guilty of forgery.

11. Opinion about Ajit Jogi leading the party even after CBI charge sheet

The respondents were asked whether Ajit Jogi should still lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections, despite the CBI charge sheet. The responses are:

All sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All respondents

3266

1079

2187

% saying

%

%

%

Yes, Ajit Jogi should still lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha elections

48

47

48

No, Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha elections

28

26

29

Don’t know / Can’t say

24

26

23

Just about half (48%) of the respondents say that Ajit Jogi should lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections as compared to 28% who felt that he should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections.

12. If not Ajit Jogi then who should lead the party in the forth-coming elections

The respondents who said that Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections, were further asked then who else should lead the party.

All sample

Urban

Rural

Base : Those saying Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections

923

285

638

% saying

%

%

%

A tribal candidate

23

18

25

An OBC candidate

23

27

22

An upper caste candidate

12

14

11

Somebody who is nominated by Shri Ajit Jogi

4

5

3

SC candidate

4

7

3

About a quarter (23%) of those who said that Ajit Jogi should not lead the party, say that a Tribal candidate should lead the Congress party while another quarter said that an OBC candidate should lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections.

13. Most capable of being the next CM of Chattisgarh

The respondents were asked who in their opinion, out of list, was the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:

All sample

Urban

Rural

Base : All sample

3266

1087

2179

% saying

%

%

%

Ajit Jogi

31

30

32

Dilip Singh Judev

17

16

17

Vidya Charan Shukla

8

11

7

Shyama Charan Shukla

4

5

3

Motilal Vohra

2

1

2

Raman Singh

2

2

1

Ramesh Bais

2

2

3

Don’t Know/ Can’t say

29

30

29

A larger proportion (31%) of the respondents, perceived Ajit Jogi to be the most capable person for becoming the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh, as compared to only 17% who favoured Dilip Singh Judev of BJP. This is partly because the BJP has not projected any one for the Chief Ministership before the elections.

A large proportion of 29% did not mention or give their opinion on who is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh.

If Dilip Singh Judev is removed from the elections then it would give further boost to Ajit Jogi.  

14a. Reasons for preferring Ajit Jogi as CM

Respondents who had indicated Ajit Jogi as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.

All Sample

Base: Those preferring Ajit Jogi as next CM

1027

% saying:

%

Done good work

31

Will solve state problem

25

Good leader

19

Will make / improve roads

12

Village development

8

Solve water problem

5

Can resolve the issue of power crisis

4

31% of those favouring Jogi said they prefer him because he has done good work in the state.

14b. Reasons for preferring Dilip Singh Judev as CM

Respondents who had indicated Dilip Singh Judev as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.

All Sample

Base: Those preferring Dilip Singh Judev as next CM

542

% saying:

%

Will solve state problem

30

Good leader

28

Done good work

18

Village development

9

Intelligent person

8

Will provide more employment

7

Can resolve the issue of power crisis

6

Will make roads

5

Solve problem

5

The main reasons for preferring Judev are that he can solve the problems in the state and he is perceived to be a good leader.

List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Chhattisgarh

AC

NO.

ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY

PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY

3

PREMNAGAR (ST)

SURGUJA (ST)

9

AMBIKAPUR (ST)

SURGUJA (ST)

13

TAPKARA (ST)

RAIGARH(ST)

18

KHARSIA

RAIGARH(ST)

33

SIPAT

JANJGIR

37

SAKTI

JANJGIR

1

MANENDRAGARH (ST)

BILASPUR(SC)

30

BILASPUR

BILASPUR(SC)

39

CHANDRAPUR

SARANGARH(SC)

48

PALARI (SC)

SARANGARH(SC)

41

RAIPUR RURAL

RAIPUR

42

ABHANPUR

RAIPUR

53

SARAIPALI

MAHASAMUND

52

BINDRANAWAGARH (ST)

MAHASAMUND

60

BHANUPRATAPPUR (ST)

KANKER(ST)

82

DONDI LOHARA (ST)

KANKER(ST)

67

KESLUR (ST)

BASTAR(ST)

69

DANTEWADA (ST)

BASTAR(ST)

75

DHAMDHA

DURG

80

KHERTHA

DURG

87

DONGARGARH

RAJNANDGAON

90

KAWARDHA

RAJNANDGAON

Main Page ! Survey Highlights And Methodology
Delhi
! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan

 

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