Making A Difference

A Tug From The Dragon

In the Nepal game, Beijing flips a chip Delhi couldn’t pick

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A Tug From The Dragon
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A Magnetic Repulsion

  • China used its  influence with Prachanda to ensure that PM Oli does not lose his seat
  • On the other hand, Oli is unhappy with India for having dealt with those seeking to oust him

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Last week, with China’s interceding on his behalf, Nepalese prime minister Kharga Prasad Sharma Oli survived a bid to throw him out of power—underlining how the dragon has steadily come to gain leverage in the Himalayan nation. The events also foregrounded intense Sino-Indian riva­lry over Nepal—for, in the run-up to the bid, a series of meetings of Nepalese leaders disenchanted with Oli had been held in Delhi, prompting him to cry foul. India’s ‘dip­lomacy’, such as it is, has come off worse in this instance, needless to add.

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It's in this strained situation that, breaking from its usual stand-offishness vis-a-vis the internal matters of  neighbours, China used its influence to convince Uni­ted Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) lea­der Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ to give up his bid for prime ministership for the sake of “left unity”. The deal was that Prachanda and his Maoist cadres would not be tried for “war crimes”; also, it seems, that he could get to be PM after Oli passes the budget.

“It’s no longer a question of China hobnobbing with disgruntled politicians,” says K.V. Rajan, former Indian ambassador to Nepal. “China today sees the opportunity to occupy the hearts and minds of a big chunk of people in Nepal, posing itself as a viable option to India.”

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Sino-Indian rivalry over Nepal harks back to the Chinese overrunning of Tibet. The Indo-Nepal Friendship Treaty of 1950 brought the two countries into close embrace. But in later years, Nepal signed a series of treaties with China and used its new-found proximity to Beijing as a bargaining chip with Delhi. This caused much strain, manifested most famously in the Indian economic blockade of Nepal in the 1980s.

The current sparks have to be seen in the light of developments both within Nepal and India, especially the BJP government taking office in 2014. India’s keenness to dev­elop stronger ties with countries in the East and South China Sea areas has caused anxiety in Beijing. India also joined the US-led chorus for freedom of navigation and overflight in these regions. And recently, it sanctioned a meeting in Dharamshala of a large number of Chinese dissidents from America and elsewhere. None of this has gone well with Beijing.

China’s move to prop up the Oli administration—a regime seen as “anti-India” and by default “pro-China”—has to be understood in this context. In the past, China has tried to work with India to ens­ure stability in Nepal, worried that negative developments there could also affect volatile Tibet. But right now, Beijing seems to be looking at opportunities to cause India discomfiture. “If things are being served on a platter to the Chinese, it will be foolish on the part of Beijing not to accept it,” observes Kathmandu-based political commentator C.K. Lal. He says Oli is sending out a strong signal to Delhi.

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Oli had also called off Nepalese President Bidhya Bhandari’s scheduled state visit to India in the wake of the alleged Indian move to oust him from power. When Nep­al's ambassador in Delhi, Deep Kumar Upad­hyay, protested and argued in favour of Bhandari’s visit, Oli had him recalled. There was also a move to declare the Ind­ian ambassador in Kathmandu, Ranjit Rae, “persona non grata” and send him back, though it was never carried out. These moves were all calculated to convey Oli’s growing displeasure with Delhi.

Indo-Nepal strains had resurfaced in the past few months in the wake of the long blockade put up by the Madhesis to protest their marginalisation in the new Nepalese constitution. India, which had strong reservations about the constitution, was widely seen in Nepal as being the initiator of the blockade, which led to much misery in Nepal. Subsequently, when Oli visited China and duly signed a string of agreements—one of them on transit between the two sides—it was widely hailed by the Nepalese. China began to be seen as a viable option to India.

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“Oli wouldn’t have reached out to China but for the blockade,” says Kanak Mani Dixit, editor of the Nepal-based Himal magazine. He points out that while in Kathmandu and elsewhere serious introspection is being done on the current state of Nepal-India ties, he doubts whether a similar exercise is also on in India. For a country that Modi wanted to project as the model of regional cooperation, Nepal now hardly reflects that mood. It is about time India takes steps to reverse the situation.

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