20 Questions For 2010

Will heir apparent Rahul Gandhi finally assert himself in 2010?

T

ravelling, meeting people and focusing on Uttar Pradesh…I see him doing pretty much the same thing in 2010. His work will aim at expanding the Congress by strengthening the party's base in the state and focusing on the organisation of the party. I don't see him really coming out or asserting himself till the elections in 2014. That's really the time when one will see Rahul step out on his own.

Will the BJP show a remarkable recovery under a new leadership?

Y

es, but only if it recognises the mismatch between today's India and yesterday's BJP. A remarkable feature of today's India is that changes which took six or seven decades to play out in the West have been capsuled into a short span of 10 years. The BJP, which captured the Hindu imagination in the dying days of Nehruvian socialism, has failed to reinvent itself. The generational change in the party's leadership is a small attempt to move with the times, but it can very easily be offset by the oppressive hold of an older, pre-Vajpayee orthodoxy. The future lies in forging a modern nationalist consensus, not retreating into a doctrinaire ghetto.

Will Indian consumers buy genetically modified food?

I

ndia is ready for quite a few things. We have become used to a variety and quality of all kinds of products. If offered a choice the customers may accept or reject genetically modified food products. But give them anything of value, and if the price is correct, the customers may well opt for GM products. Price is a key criterion for Indian customers.

Is US President Barack Obama's dream run well and truly over?

P

resident Obama came to office with impressively forward-leaning impulses on some key issues like Iran and Middle East peace. However, he surrounded himself with a national security and foreign policy team that, for the most part, does not share those impulses. Barring a wholesale transformation in that team and how he interacts with them, Obama's dream run is well and truly over. Indeed, after a brilliant campaign, it never really started. The US could tolerate this if its strategic position were not under such severe challenge. However, at a time when America's relative standing is declining, Obama's avoidance of hard choices could have deeply negative consequences on multiple fronts.

Will Kapil Sibal's reform of the school examination system work on the ground?

M

aking examinations optional is a good idea and will start kicking in from next year. But I wish Mr Sibal could focus on the pedagogy of education. Quality of education needs to be debated in the country. In this area, Sibal, who is an extremely capable man, has done little. Innovation, for instance, is not part of children's curriculum. Education has to engage with the society at large.

Will we let Pakistan be–and will China let us be?

I

t is not within China's power whether to let India be or not. India is a big power, which can decide what course it wants to take. But it is definitely in India's power to let Pakistan be. Since Independence, it has been India's policy to see a stable and peaceful Pakistan. If today, Pakistan is not peaceful and stable, it is because of its own policies. India cannot be blamed for Pakistan's woes.

After a terrible year, will the economy hit the 8%+ mark, despite rising inflation?

I

think growth will be closer to 7 per cent this year (2009-10). But it could well hit 8 per cent next year if the monsoons are near-normal. I think the exit from an expansionary monetary policy will be gradual, not sharp. High inflation by itself need not be worrying, but the authorities—the government and the RBI—may be obliged to tighten the monetary policy. Inflation is largely supply side-driven. There is a good chance that things might improve if vegetable prices come down. Inflation causes me great concern—in the past, the government has not managed it well, whether it is rice imports or paying too high a price for foodgrain procurement. Impact of inflation on growth will depend on how long it takes for the authorities to react. Politically worrying is not the WPI-based inflation, but what is happening on the food prices front.

For all the assurances, will the new state of Telangana get formed in 2010?

P

oliticians on all sides in Andhra Pradesh will continue to posture and pretend that truth and God are on their side. This is a time-consuming process and a year is too short a period for all parties who have a stake in the issue to make themselves heard. Real and imagined grievances will be aired. Messy solutions will be offered and messier ways to hide the earlier mess will have to be found. A year is a short time in Indian politics, a mere wink!

Will the Centre’s drive against the Naxals completely peter out?

I

t will intensify. However, shock-and-awe with officious acronyms alone (CRPF, CoBRA, IB, SIB, CM, DM, SP and so on) will not solve things. India has become more powerful, prosperous and progressive since Naxalism Mark I in the 1960s. Yet, Leftwing rebellion too has emerged bigger and more resolute. We now have Naxalism Mark IV. There will more such, as our delivery of justice is inadequate, many law-makers and keepers corrupted, businesses blind, and society iniquitous by fatal tradition.

Will property prices go through the roof or come down?

D

evelopers are registering volumes and price levels that exceed those reflected during the peak of the boom period in 2007. This is clearly not sustainable. I expect the first half of 2010 to register selective price escalations, after which we will see corrections based on locations, projects and the degree of unrealism in terms of pricing.

Will Bengal CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee resign in 2010?

Q1: Should Nero have fiddled when Rome burned?

Yes
No

Q2: Could Napoleon have staged a fightback after Waterloo?

Yes
No

Q3: Has any captain in the history of cricket stayed on as captain after he scores 8 consecutive ducks in 8 Test innings?

Yes
No

Will the Commonwealth Games end up being a success or not?

O

rganising any major multi-disciplinary event with a high number of participating countries is very difficult even for nations better equipped than India. Ten months to go and the infrastructure is still being built—India is hoping against hope to avoid embarrassment. Preparations for the conduct of the games are equally important, but one doesn't see much accomplished in that direction. Also, the constant squabbling between the Commonwealth Games Federation and the Organising Committee doesn't help. Even the sports ministry is at loggerheads with the organisers over various issues. It’s reasonable to believe India may be in for a fiasco.

With the Goods and Services tax still uncertain for 2010, will Indians pay more in taxes?

I

f we implement the GST, in the medium to long term, the tax incidence should go down and some products may become cheaper. As far as personal tax is concerned, if the slab rates are rejigged, there may be a lower incidence of tax, and if the lower threshold is raised, it would benefit middle income groups and those who are just getting into the tax bracket.

After a year of shocking revelations, will paid-for news become the norm in 2010?

I

f the trend is not checked, the money-making exercise will continue. The rot has set in the system. Unfortunately, the leading papers started the paid news trend that is being emulated by most of the newspapers, and reached a peak during the recent elections. But the Press Council is trying to assert itself. We have held meetings with the Election Commission and will work out a way to check this.

Sehwag plus Gambhir. Will any rival team be able to counter the explosive pairing?

T

here is little doubt that they have been the opening pair of 2009; as much for the runs each has scored as for the manner in which they have scored them; Sehwag, demolishing attacks, and Gambhir showing he can bat in many gears. Buying into them now would be buying into a stock of proven performance and while that can sometimes be good, it could also mean you have missed the peak. In 2010, India play largely at home but South Africa will be out to show the world that this pair can be stopped. If any team can in 2010, it will be South Africa.

Will Google Wave change the way we communicate, and render Facebook unpopular?

T

oday, anything that is inclusive and improves the consumer interface becomes popular. Just look at the telecommunications space. A lot of phones today are providing an interface where you can do many, many things—e-mail, blog and Facebook—from one single application. If Google Wave offers a similar interface for people to operate several different functions from one place, it could be a really big change. It will be like a browser within a browser. If it makes movement within the Internet more seamless, it would definitely make a huge difference. Anything that is inclusive will be a differentiator.

Three Grammies are up for grabs by Indians. Will any of them win?

W

hen I was first nominated for a Grammy in 1981, no one in India, myself included, even knew what this award was about! I sincerely hope that the Indian artistes who have been nominated this year will win in their respective categories. It's heartening to see the support and affection amongst Indians. I wish arr (Rahman), Amjadji and Zakir all the best. It's a proud moment for Indian music, Indians, and India.

Will 2010 be yet another crucial year for the survival of wildlife?

D

emand for tiger parts from China has already pushed our wild tigers to the brink. But in February 2010, the Year of the Tiger will begin in the Chinese calendar and traders say that there will be huge demand for skins and tiger parts. The Great Indian Bustard is another candidate. It won't go extinct in 2010, but it's running out of time. Not enough is being done to help the species survive.

Dear Nostradamus, you father of all seers, tell us if we are right to hope for a better 2010?

2

010 will not be easy, for it has been said. Look for my tenth quatrain in my predictions for the tenth century, and you will see that in this year, Satan's arch of fury will ensure that a bloodthirsty and heartless leader will want to rule with his sword and fire. Since I cannot make sense of my own obtuseness, I have left the task of interpretation to specialists, who say that the sword is a ballistic missile, which will trigger off World War III in November. Bacteriological and chemical weapons will be used, and Western Europe will take on the US while France will battle Britain. The end of the world is nigh. This time, I mean it.

Post 377, will someone from Bollywood finally step out of the closet?

M

ore than Bollywood, I feel it's the common people who are going to be far more open about their sexuality in the next decade, proclaiming things than brushing them under the carpet. Bollywood still has issues with homosexuality and it's unlikely that anyone will come out openly. It is difficult to find an actor for a “gay” role. They feel that they will lose their loyal audience, especially the women, if they play such roles. The fan following is what makes people discreet. They don't mind playing a caricature but a full-blown gay character makes them go on the backfoot.