[With the changes in the anti-defection law, while the clause relating toone third members has been deleted, there is still plenty of play forpoliticians to work their shenanigans, particularly when it comes to someambiguity about 'unrecognised' parties, such as the LJP, or one-winning-memberparties -- Ed]
The stability of pre-election coalitions in the recent elections reflects another aspect that deserves close attention. While the age ofone- or two-party rule in India is long past; while regional parties are now a permanent fact of the national political scenario; and while coalition politics will remain integral to the management of the country in the foreseeable future; there is evidence of the emergence and consolidation of a relatively stable 'two-coalition' system (with marginal exceptions, no doubt) which may function in a manner comparable, though certainly not identical, to a two-party system.
One constituent element of this stability of coalitions has also been the consolidation of strongly polarised two-party systems in many of thestates--DMK versus AIADMK in Tamil Nadu; TDP versus the Congress in Andhra Pradesh; Akalis versus the Congress in Punjab; Congress versus BJP in Karnataka; the AGP versus the Congress in Assam, and so on.
The irreducible antipathies of these parties--often rooted in passionate personality clashes and deepening personalenmities--in the states have forced them into permanent coalitions at the national level, and these structures are difficult to dissolve to seize transient opportunistic advantage. While the composite elements are no doubt mean and lurid, the consequences promise a possible and much-needed stability and crystallisation of two broad ideological blocs.
In assessing the reality and sustainability of this trend, it will be useful to determine the extent to which pressures from the electorate compelled political parties and leaders to remain faithful to their promises and to their pre-election coalitions. A detailed analysis of the success and failure of particular candidates and their past conduct would be necessary to arrive at a conclusive determination in this context.
The proportion of new and repeat candidates returned in various constituencies, and their behaviour in the tumult of post-election manipulations could also shed some light on what propelled the decisions that eventually prevailed. It is, nevertheless, useful to note that many of the pioneers of the'Aya Ram Gaya Ram' philosophy and tradition have now been discarded by their party leaderships, and are today languishing at the periphery of bothstate and national politics.
As already stated, this is still an incipient development, and one that can easily be disrupted in the next uncertain electoral contest. To the extent, however, that it represents the beginning of something that may crystallise into a permanent feature of the Indian political firmament, its impact could be unprecedented, even revolutionary. Indeed, if the major political parties at the national level recognise and seek to harness these emerging trends, reinforcing them with suitable electoral and legislative reforms, they could easily engineer a tectonic shift in the fundamental nature of politics in India.