IT would be an exaggeration to say that election fever has caught on in Jammu and Kashmir. But the political thermometer, particularly in the Valley, reads just a few degrees below normal which is as encouraging a sign as any. With the first phase of elections to the assembly on September 7, the tempo is picking up. This despite a poll boycott call by the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella organisation of several separatist groups spearheading the azadi movement.
Political observers attribute the relatively positive response to elections largely to the participation of Farooq Abdullah's National Conference (NC). But there are other factors too. There was no organised resistance by any pro- azadi group to the parliamentary elections and complaints of rigging and coercion seems to have been neutralised—thanks to the United Front Government which has sent out the right signals that this time around the polls will be free and fair.
Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta, while on a visit to Srinagar, was categoric in allaying fears of coercion by security forces: "The security forces have no business to compel any person to vote or enter polling booths." He said steps were being taken to "ensure" that the elections are coercion-free. A clip on local television shows the Prime Minister assuring a "free and fair" election, and his Government's "commitment" to give autonomy to the state once there is an elected regime.
Also, fatigue has set in—after seven years of militancy, the average Kashmiri is tired of the violence and wants peace. And much hopes are being pinned on the United Front Government and, to a great extent, on Farooq who is being projected as the new chief minister. Therefore, it was not surprising that people turned out in thousands at Uri when Mohammed Shafi, a Farooq confidant, addressed a meeting on August 19. It was his first rally in the border town in seven years and the response—even sceptics admit—was phenomenal.
Similarly, on the last day of filing nominations, the crowds that turned up with candidates of various parties at Baramulla were clear pointers to the involvement of the people. Conversations revolved around the relative merits of the Congress and the National Conference and though many party workers expressed the sense of alienation that most Kashmiris feel, they seemed to agree that militancy had provided no solutions. Close to 200 nominations have been filed for 27 seats which goes to the polls in the first phase.
While exuding the confidence of a front-runner, Farooq admits that the people would have high expectations from any elected government and that it will require much effort to translate promises into action. Observes Farooq: "Whoever comes to power will have the task of rebuilding the infrastructure in the state which has been destroyed in the last seven years. A new administration has to be set up. We need IAS officers who understand Kashmir and are sympathetic. Also, the state has a huge financial deficit which I am hopeful the Union Government will help sort out. We need to rebuild schools, colleges, hospitals and roads. It is not going to be easy."
Indeed, the task looks difficult. Although Farooq is overwhelmed by the crowds of ticket-seekers who mill around his Gupkar Road residence in Srinagar every morning, there are also those who come to see 'Farooq sahib' with their litany of grievances. There are mothers who want the National Conference leader to help release their sons who are in lockups. Others come to get an assurance that their children will be given jobs. The unemployed population—those who are no longer eligible for government jobs—is estimated to be about two lakh and the new elected government will be expected to perform miracles.
Points out Abdul Qayoom, state Janata Dal president: "The NC's participation has no doubt given credibility to the elections. But one must remember that should the NC come to power then people will expect it to bring about change. And they would want it to happen in the first six months. If there are no signs of anything happening in that time-frame it will be a very bitter disappointment."
But will the NC return with a "thumping majority" as Farooq claims? If at all there is a rival to the NC it is the Congress and theBJP in Jammu and its neighbouring constituencies. The Congress has been revitalised to some degree by the induction of former Union home minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed but this advantage has been nullified by factionalism in the party. There are senior leaders, like former Congress Legislature Party leader Iftikhar Ansari, who are contesting on a Congress ticket but are critical of the Mufti and do not give the party even an outside chance of coming to power.
ACCORDING to Congress sources, the Mufti wants to first rebuild the party rather than form the government. To unite the warring Congress factions is a difficult task but many Congressmen hope to cash in on the Mufti's grassroots support to woo the electorate. While the former Union home minister has many detractors, his presence in the Congress has, according to political observers, added teeth to the party.
In constituencies outside the Valley, the BJP is slated to pick up seats. Of the 87 assembly seats, 47 are in the Valley. But campaigning is yet to gather momentum although Farooq is confident that things will hot up in the coming days. However, given the security restrictions, no political leader believes that political activity in the Valley can be of the same level as in the rest of the country. Says Qayoom: "The atmosphere is still not quite right for normal campaigning. We will have to be content with whatever the situation permits."
A sense of insecurity stems from the last-minute decision of the Awami League (AL), a party floated by 'reformed' militants under Kukka Parrey, to participate in the elections. The AL had earlier announced that it would not take part in the assembly polls since it believed that the government rigged the Lok Sabha elections which led to the defeat of its candidates. Still bitter about its experience in the last elections,
Javed Shah, AL's vice-president, points out: "We hope that they (the state administration) do not repeat what they did in the last elections." Shah pulls out a bunch of signed and sealed ballot papers he claims he seized from "vested interests" in the parliamentary elections. "How can anyone say the elections were free and fair?"
Leaders of the AL move about with the security provided by the administration as well as their own gunmen. During his latest Srinagar visit, Indrajit Gupta hinted that the surrendered militants may be disarmed. The home minister was of the view that anyone holding an illegal and unlicenced gun was a militant: "In my capacity as home minister I have made it clear to all security officials that they should not encourage or patronise gunmen."
But much of the counter-insurgency operations of the security forces is dependent on the surrendered militants. And it remains to be seen if they are asked to lay down their weapons after the elections. The surrendered militants, according to the state administration, have been given weapons to defend themselves against attacks from "unidentified" gunmen and ambushes.
The latest attack was on August 22when the senior commander of the Muslim Mujahideen and 13 others were gunned down in a village outside Anantnag. The killing took place 12 hours after the outfit's chief Nabi Azad held a press conference in Srinagar in which he announced his decision to boycott the elections. Azad also supported the demandfor greater autonomy for Kashmir.
Political leaders now prefer to be soft on the 'reformed' militants since they do not want their election campaigns to be disrupted by gunmen and disgruntled elements. But no one expects the AL to garner sufficient votes to make it a party in the reckoning in this elections. Quashing reports that the NC has come to a covert understanding with the AL, Farooq points out: "I had a chance meeting with Kukka Parrey in Delhi. It has been blown out of proportion. Any political association or affiliation with the Awami League is out of the question."
The NC, however, has come to an informal understanding with friendly candidates from the Janata Dal, Congress and the BSP. But the NC has no alliance with any party. Further, unofficial tie-ups with the CPI and CPI(M) is predicted but a clearer picture will emerge once nominations are filed for the second and third phase of the elections.
As things stand, the scales seem to be tilted in the NC's favour and unless some drastic change takes place in the minds of the electorate, Farooq's supporters may not be incorrect in their assessment that he will form the government.
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