THE BJP's Gujarat unit seems destined for more trouble. The high command's decision to quell the rebellion with an iron fist may backfire. Even more riled by what they feel is "one-sided" action, the dissidents have been chalking out battle strategies over a series of hushed meetings—and a split in the party is again becoming a none-too-remote possibility.
Attention is focussed on the next moves of dissident leader Shankersinh Vaghela, who received a strong snub this fortnight when the BJP leadership responded to the prolonged crisis in the state with stern disciplinary action directed primarily against his faction. This has prompted Vaghela to test his support-base, within the party and outside it. The man had declared barely a month ago that he would not quit the party and would, rather, work to strengthen it. Now, the wind is changing direction again. Says a senior associate, about the dissident leader: "The lion may go hungry, but he won't eat grass".
The die was cast by the central leadership, which was waiting for the general elections to get over. First, the pro-dissident state unit president Kashiram Rana was replaced by Finance and Energy Minister Vajubhai Vala, a man handpicked by former chief minister and Vaghela's archrival Keshubhai Patel. The move ended nine years of Rana and Vaghela alternating at the helm. Then, the high command made its preferences clearer by putting Keshubhai in charge of Gujarat in place of K.L. Sharma. Also, pro-Vaghela ministers were snubbed in Delhi. They were seeking action against those responsible for the defeat of party candidates in the recent polls and the culprits of the May 20 incident, when a senior minister was stripped and assaulted at a rally for A.B. Vajpayee.
And though the party's central leadership has offered assurances that the chief minister will not be changed, the view at the state level is that the high command is this time waiting for the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls to get over. Despite all the denials, the general feeling is that replacing Suresh Mehta with Keshubhai a few months from now would be a natural corollary to the present decisions.
Of course, BJP President L.K. Advani's hard-line measures have only stoked such talk. His message that the Khajuraho episode remains unforgiven has left the dissidents cornered and has given the upper hand to Keshubhai. Last September, Vaghela had taken off with a contingent of rebel MLAs to Khajuraho, leading to the fall of the first BJP government headed by Keshubhai in October. Referred to since as 'Khajurias', the dissidents are set against the 'Hajurias' (yesmen) or the Keshubhai camp, which is backed by the state's strong RSS-VHP lobby.
After pressure from the Sangh parivar and the months of open war between the two camps which had deeply marred the BJP's reputation as a disciplined party, the leadership was forced to take a stern stand. As it accorded victory to one side, the field has been left open for a response from the other. But given the party's new hard stance, protest may not be condoned. The new state unit president makes his position clear. Says Vajubhai Vala: "My first priority is discipline. Within three months, discipline will be re-established in this party. Whether it's Vajubhai or Keshubhai, any act of indiscipline will be punished. No platforms, no statements, no leaks to the press." The last is a reference to his predecessor's angry letter to Advani, which was published before it reached the BJP president.
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