Return Of Mandal

UMA Bharati (BJP) and Kumari Selja (Congress) have little in common. But the constitution amendment bill seeking 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state legislatures have brought them together. Both want the 'creamy layer' excluded, an aspect the proposed law is silent on. When Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sri-kant Jena solicited their opinion on September 13, their stand was unambiguous: they would not allow the quota to be exploited by upper caste women in the name of social justice.

The sight of the two unusual partners—on an issue that's not on either party's primary agenda—sums up the growing clout of the backward classes, and their aspiration to reshape and control the power structure. An increasing recognition of the Mandal Phenomenon was, perhaps, the most dominant factor in the various parties' candidate selection for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. There is, of course, the notable exception: the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has roped in the Congress as a junior ally, has its own consideration. Victory over Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party at any cost is more relevant than installing Mayawati as chief minister—and fielding more Muslim candidates to cut into his domain is one way to get there. A handshake with the Jama Masjid Shahi Imam is another.

When the Ramesh Chandra Committee report on last year's assault of BSP legislators by Mulayam's supporters was presented in Parliament, it gave BSP chief Kanshi Ram more ammunition to project the Front as a votary of 'goonda raj'. According to Kanshi, "the most important thing for the BSP is getting the Congress to withdraw its support to the UF Government." Undoubtedly, the UP elections would have a bearing on national politics. If the BSP-Congress alliance brings in the votes, the formula will logically be taken beyond the state's political laboratory. At that juncture, withdrawal of Congress support to the Centre would be Kanshi's first precondition. In such an event, there might be a reaction: the consolidation of pro-Mandal sections, possibly cutting across party lines.

The Bharati-Selja axis needs to be viewed in this light. Such a trend was visible in UP too, in many forms. Mulayam rubbed shoulders with long-time foe and habitual defector Ajit Singh: the rationale being that his fight is principally against the BJP. To realise his dream of getting back the UP chief min-istership, Mulayam would need the support of all non-BJP and non-BSP forces. Ajit Singh's clout in nearly 40 Jat-dominated western UP constituencies is, therefore, crucial.

In accommodating Front constituents like the Janata Dal, Congress(T), CPI, CPI(M) and the Bharatiya Kisan Mazdoor Sangh during seat-sharing, Mulayam displayed a degree of flexibility he's not known for. At the last moment, after he was chosen by all constituents as the United Front's man for chief ministership, he gave up his rigid claim for 300 of the total 425 seats.

That the Mandal factor swings decisions even in the BJP—a party known for its Brahmin-Bania image—is clear. When the Brahmin lobby in UP objected to the projection of Kalyan Singh, a backward leader, as chief minister, Delhi was unsympathetic. "There's absolutely no doubt on that count. He (Kalyan) is going to be the leader," says a BJP general secretary.

The party has also conceded Kalyan's demand that more backwards should be fielded. So, about 190 OBCs (excluding 70-odd SC/ST seats) were given tickets, bringing down the upper caste quotient to about 135—that is, 40 less than last time.

The party also gave away 30-odd seats to its ally, the Samata Party.

Not that Kalyan was happy with the candidate selection. Despite mild protests, A.B. Vajpayee pushed two cases—controversial tantrik Balti Baba from Lucknow; and Mahendra Yadav, husband of Neera Yadav, an IAS officer known to be close to Mulayam, from Buland-shahr. And, despite disclaimers of a quid pro quo offer to new entrants from other parties, 18 such people got tickets. On the whole, M.M. Joshi and state party chief Kalraj Mishra were the losers.

V.P. Singh's prognosis is that the BJP might suffer a split in three years because pro-Mandal forces would gather more legislative clout. Only time and more elections can prove or disprove the first part. But the second—Mandalisation—looks inevitable. Mayawati or no Mayawati, the levers of power look set to shift to those who satisfy the Mandal criterion. Whichever party comes to power.