Polarised Mandate

We ask our tribal brothers what they have gained by being misled by the BJP and torching Muslim shops and properties," says Naransinh Rathwa, a tribal leader and former Congress MP from Chhota-Udepur in rural Vadodara. Many tribal youth who participated in the anti-Muslim riots in the tribal areas of central Gujarat are now languishing in jails. Despite promises, cases against them have not been withdrawn.

This is the rallying point of the Congress in its tribal strongholds of Vadodara and Panchmahals. But the party has to contend with the post-Godhra communal polarisation in several tribal areas that will divide its votes. Rathwa doesn't think that this will happen. "Former chief minister Amarsinh Chaudhary's campaign and our rallies have bridged the divide," he says. But hear a few tribal youngsters come out in support of the BJP and one realises that the polarisation can't be undone so easily. And if nothing else, it'll at least reduce the Congress leads. "The Godhra episode will not work beyond a few seats in Panchmahals. People are fed up with the BJP's poor governance," says Mayur Jani, veteran journalist and social worker. He says the Congress expects to gain 2 to 3 seats but will only retain its tally of 10 out of 13 seats in the district.

Overall, the Congress tally in central Gujarat may come down by a few seats and the BJP may do slightly better than it did last time.