The widening divide between the indigenous Hizbul Mujahideen leadership and the Hurriyat Conference is the least New Delhi has managed to salvage from a short-lived ceasefire. While there could be more gains in the offing, bringing peace to Jammu and Kashmir, however, remains a tricky proposition - what with those opposed to talks continuing to unleash violence.
In the first major attack after the Srinagar car-bomb attack, militants shot dead six Hindus at Sankari village of Rajouri district on the night of August 17. Such incidents apart, the Centres strategy seems to be to cash in on the Hurriyat-Hizbul divide and simultaneously work towards splitting the latter by exploiting the dissent within the group. The current belief being that a marginalised Hurriyat will be to the advantage of both New Delhi and the Hizbul.
Its clear that a confrontation between the Hizbul and the Hurriyat was brewing ever since the Hurriyat executives flip-flop on the Hizbuls ceasefire offer on July 24. "It has now come out in the open with the Hizbul openly attacking the Hurriyat executive. Worse, it has even questioned their credentials," says a JKLF leader. In this uneasy vacuum, moves are stealthily afoot to resume a dialogue with the Hizbul, despite the fact that the militant organisation has maintained a stoic silence after it called off its ceasefire on August 8. The Hizbuls commander-in-chief in the Valley, Abdul Majid Dar, and the four divisional commanders have since gone underground and their whereabouts are not known.
Officials both in New Delhi and Srinagar believe that the Hizbuls vituperative language against the Hurriyat was a strategic ploy to restart the aborted dialogue. "How else can one explain the Hizbuls asking the Hurriyat to shed its vanguard role? These are harsh words," says a senior official. In the last two weeks, the Hurriyat has changed its stand thrice and many believe their claims of being representative of Kashmiri aspirations has taken a nosedive. Moreover, the Jamaat-e-Islami president in Srinagar, Ghulam Nabi Bhat, has also come down heavily on the Hurriyat for its indecisiveness.
The first signal that matters could be brought back on an even keel came from Fazal-ul-Haq Qureshi, the Hizbuls pointsman. Breaking his silence after a gap of nearly ten days, Qureshi gave sufficient indications that the Hizbul supremo, Syed Salahuddin, was keen on resuming comprehensive talks with New Delhi. "The scuttled dialogue would resume soon, and this time itll be more forceful and help in the resolution of the Kashmir dispute and bring peace to the troubled state," Qureshi told Outlook on Aug 18. He also said that efforts are on in both India and Pakistan to ensure that the dialogue resumes. Qureshi, the chairman of the Peoples Political Front, who is perceived to be Majid Dars voice, also said that "the dialogue with the Centre will be held soon and many feelers have been sent in many directions."
However, the Pakistan-based Hizbul leadership has denied that it could consider resumption of a dialogue with New Delhi without insisting on Pakistans involvement. A spokesman of the militant group in Islamabad, speaking to a newspaper, said that there was no change in the stance of his organisation and that any talks would have to be outside the purview of the Indian Constitution and must involve Pakistan. But there has been some semblance of activity in New Delhi as well, giving rise to some hope. Highly-placed sources pointed out that a team from the Prime Ministers Office (pmo) and the home ministry was in the process of being formed to try and bring to track the derailed peace process. "Only this time the talks wont be held in the glare of flashbulbs and videocameras," says a senior official. The Cabinet Committee of Security Affairs, which met on Wednesday last, was also optimistic that the talks would resume.
Informal lines of communication have also been established with Salahuddin through another mediator. "He was assured that intelligence agencies were not trying to split the Hizbul," says an official. The possibility of roping in Pakistan at a later stage in the dialogue rather than at the outset appears to have become a firm Indian stand. However, both the Hizbul and the Centre are exploring a middle-road to justify their return to the negotiating table. "This will take some time but will happen eventually," says a senior state government functionary.
Ground indicators in the Valley also show that the Hizbul has not cranked up its operations as suspected. Security agencies believe that Hizbul cadres are not active yet. The Director General of Police (dgp), Gurbachan Jagat, and the Inspector General of the Border Security Force (bsf) Kashmir range, Vijay Kumar, felt that the Hizbul had not reactivated its cadres and that the gun was still being given a respite. Their perceptions are based on the wireless transmissions that security agencies have intercepted over the last week. Even after claiming responsibility for the blast that rocked Srinagar last week - and which killed 14 people - security agencies dont think that the Hizbul is back to its violent ways. "We know how the Hizbul can strike. Right now, it is still passing through a phase of inertia," says another official.
According to sources, the top security force brass has also sent out a message that Hizbul cadres should not be annoyed or antagonised. Instead, efforts are afoot to drive a wedge between the Hizbul and other jehadi outfits. The zealous over-reaction of security officials when Hizbul cadres and villagers in Rajouri teamed up last week to drive away Lashkar-e-Toiba militants is a case in point. Despite all this, there seems to be a seriousness about holding talks. "It seems that the persons at the helm in New Delhi have realised that there is no end to the war in Kashmir and they want to buy peace at last," says a separatist leader.
Prime minister Vajpayee was only testing the waters when he remarked that he was "striving for political consensus" on the issue of involving Pakistan in talks. Even home minister L.K. Advani, who was all fire and brimstone after the August 8 withdrawal, was conciliatory in his words during the parliamentary consultative committee meeting on Thursday last. He said the government was still "open to talks with all those in Kashmir who give up the path of terror and violence."
The logistics of involving Pakistan at a later stage is an issue which will be discussed threadbare by the pmo before it announces its readiness for talks with the Hizbul. "Even Pakistani officials know that talks on substantive issues will not be on the agenda, at least for the first few rounds," says an Intelligence Bureau official. The focus in the first few rounds will be on how to implement the ceasefire in the Valley. "If that happens successfully, there will be a groundswell of support for peace and the talks can go forward," says an official. There also seems to be some rethink on the bjp-led governments avowed position that no dialogue would be possible with Pakistan if it continued to support cross-border terrorism and provide resources to jehadi groups. "New Delhi also has to be sensitised to some of the compulsions that Gen Musharraf himself faces," points out a raw official. Security officials in the Valley believe that some of the militant outfits are out of his loop and have now become uncontrollable.
International pressure has also been mounted on the Pakistani ceo to keep the lines open with India, more so before the UN general assembly in September. While both India and Pakistan are paying a heavy price for the conflict, the difficulties for the latter, however, may be insurmountable since it also has to deal with a growing militant clergy. And amidst all these players, it remains to be seen whether future talks can negotiate the volatility of the Valley.
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