On A Shaky Seat

IF Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha Jayaram had a soothsayer, he would forecast stormy weather ahead. With virtually every poll prediction pointing to an overwhelming victory for the DMK-Moopanar Congress alliance, the Tamil Nadu chief minister finds herself in a situation where she could be reduced to a marginal leader with a handful of AIADMK MLAs. And hardpressed to defend herself against the long litany of corruption charges which is likely to be levelled against her by the new government. While political circles in Madras are alive to the prospect of the DMK returning to power, there is growing concern in the Jayalalitha camp about her future.

Once the election results are out, the Tamil Nadu chief minister may be in a position similar to that of the DMK President M. Karunanidhi after the 1991 elections. The DMK had a lone representative in the assembly while the AIADMK, riding a sympathy wave in the wake of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, literally stormed its way to Fort St George, the seat of the government, with an overwhelming majority. The DMK's isolation was complete.

Karunanidhi, however, survived the lean period—with ample help from the organi-sation with which he had grown over the years. It is indeed a remarkable feat for the DMK leader, who stayed in the Opposition, rebuilt lost ground and is now all set to stage a comeback. Political observers doubt if Jayalalitha will have the patience to sweat it out in the Opposition for a full term, particularly if her party is reduced to a handful of seats in the assembly.

Unlike the DMK's allegiance to Karun-anidhi, the AIADMK's commitment to Jayalalitha is a recent phenomenon. Before the 1991 elections, the party cadre was bound by their loyalty to its founder-leader, M.G. Ramachandran. It is difficult to equate Jayalalitha with MGR and the cadre may not hold the same loyalty towards her. Reports of AIADMK workers expressing their displeasure at election meetings was unheard of in the past but this time, cadres have been openly giving vent to their feelings. There is talk that many AIADMK leaders will desert Jayalalitha if she loses power.

This in turn has led to murmurs that the chief minister and her confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, may even move to Andhra Pradesh. Already there are rumours that six container-loads have been sent to her farmhouse outside Hyderabad from her Poes Garden residence. While the veracity of these speculations are questionable, there is no doubt that investigations will be initiated against Jayalalitha if a new government comes to power. The DMK, as well as Moopanar's Tamil Maanali Congress (TMC), has made it clear that it will investigate all cases against the AIADMK. In fact, corruption has been the focus of the DMK's advertising campaign against the ruling AIADMK. But the DMK leadership has stated that it won't go on a witch hunt and would rather have the central agencies investigate the charges against top AIADMK leaders. This, according to a senior DMK leader, will lend "credibility to the investigations and also protect us from malicious propaganda."

It may be recalled that when the DMK government initiated action against businessmen in 1989, it came in for severe criticism for singling out persons who were known to be against the party. The DMK does not wish the investigations against Jayalalitha to be seen in the same light.

However, Karunanidhi and his associates will spare no effort in bringing Jayalalitha and some of the people in her government to book. Jayalalitha was never found wanting in arrogance and she has been severe on all shades of Opposition leaders, including some Union ministers of state. Most of them are in a mood to seek revenge now and will certainly demand investigations against her.

And there is a long list of charges against her. According to sources, there are at least 200 charges against her of which she could be prosecuted in at least five cases. Among them is the case involving purchase of government property for Jaya Publications, a company she continued to be a partner of even after she became chief minister. This is in contravention of the code of conduct for ministers which lays down that while in office, ministers shall refrain from buying from, or selling to, the government. As far as this offence is concerned, the Tamil Nadu Governor had granted permission to Janata Party leader Subramanian Swamy to prosecute her—a move that has been stayed by the Supreme Court.

Many of the scams, ( see box ) like the coal deal incident, have already been widely reported and, although the chief minister has not been directly charged, there is every likelihood, say DMK sources, that the cases will be reopened. Such highly publi-cised events as the extravagant wedding of her foster son last year may also be looked into by the income-tax department.

To top it all is the promise by the DMK and its alliance partner, the TMC, to probe the nexus between Jayalalitha and Sasikala Natarajan. Even as leader of the Opposition, the Moopanar Congress veteran S.R. Balasubramaniam had talked of a 500-page dossier with the Intelligence Bureau on Natarajan's business activities. Will the file be reopened by the new government?

According to political observers, Jaya-lalitha could also be at a disadvantage if the government at the Centre is not sympathetic towards her. Much of her leverage in Delhi would depend on how many Lok Sabha seats her party manages to win. Poll predictions are gloomy for the chief minister, who may have a lot of explaining to do in the next few months.

During her five-year tenure her take-home salary was a token Re 1 a month. But she never did live down her extravagance. Her confidante, Natarajan, who once ran a video parlour patronised by the chief minister, also has to tell her side of the story—for instance, explain where she got the riches that came her way in the last five years. With the DMK riding a popularity wave, Jayalalitha could soon face her time of reckoning.