BJP has reason to celebrate in Karnataka. But while raising a toast, the revelers need to be reminded that the party is three seats short of a simple majority. How stable will the first saffron government in the south be?
It is largely being suggested that out of the six independent candidates whohave won, getting three to support the BJP is not going to be a problem, but,for the record, out of the six independents who have won, four are Congressrebels (Kolar, Malavalli, Pavagada, Hiriyur), one JD(S) rebel (Hosadurga) andone BJP rebel (Kalghatgi). What means and method the BJP will employ to woo anyof the three will be a curious thing to watch in the run up togovernment-formation. In recent electoral history wafer thin margins of one ortwo seats has played havoc in the Goa, Jharkand, and Meghalagya. So, the majorquestion is: how stable will the BJP government be? Stability was one of theimportant planks on which this election was fought.
The BJP's 'relative' improvement in demographic and social depth has to bestressed because South Karnataka or the Old Mysore region, where the polls wereheld during the first phase, still continues to be a Congress and JD(S)stronghold. In districts like Mandya, Ramanagara, Hassan, Chikkaballapur, andChamarajanagar the BJP has failed to open its account. In an important districtlike Mysore, it has barely managed two of the eleven seats. But in CentralKarnataka and Malnad districts, like Davangere, Chitradurga, Shimoga andChikmagalur they have either held on to what they gained last time or haveimproved their fortunes.
Even as the BJP savours its victory, the big question already being asked inBangalore is will the Congress and the JD(S) stick together to fight theparliament polls or will the Congress quietly hope for the disintegration of theJD(S) hoping to consolidate the secular vote in the future?