Gowda Calls The Shots

AS if the problems thrown up by the tragicomic pantomime that wannabe ministers in the Deve Gowda Government indulged in through the past fortnight were not enough, the sudden and sharp 30 per cent hike in the price of petroleum products announced on July 3 ensured that the 'crisis-a-week government' lived up to its name. Even though the crisis was more one of public posture—with all United Front constituents, including the Janata Dal, playing to the gallery and justifiably apprehensive that the BJP and the Congress had been handed a stick to beat them with—the manner and timing of the announcement proved to a be a bit sticky.

So while the troubles that have plagued the United Front Government since it took office a little over a month ago continue, the latest fracas has had some interesting consequences. Not least that Prime Minister Deve Gowda is keen on stamping his authority on the unwieldy ruling coalition.

The howls of protest against the petrol price hike were led by the CPI(M) and followed up by Chief Ministers M. Karunanidhi, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu and Jyoti Basu. But while the others predictably objected to the steep hike, the Marxists also regretted that "such a major policy decision" was taken without consultations within the UF steering committee. They said it should have been announced in Parliament—scheduled to go into its monsoon session, in which the Budget would be presented, in just another week.

Sitaram Yechuri, CPI(M) politburo member, said: "These means were a hallmark of the Rao regime and we opposed them to the hilt. We'll continue our opposition if this Government goes down the same path."

And though the CPI's criticism of the measure was more muted as it is a participant in the Government, large sections of both parties were strident in their opposition to the hike. The country's chief ministers who met in Delhi on July 4 and 5 to discuss common minimum services also added their voices to the din. However, the Left parties conceded that the hike was necessitated by a spiralling Oil Pool deficit caused by the "populist measures" of the previous regime, which had not increased prices for two years.

So, by July 5, when the UF steering committee met at Gowda's residence and the Cabinet acquiesced to their 'request' to reduce the hike, though only on diesel, it was more or less clear that Gowda would have his way. As was proved the next day when the diesel hike was halved, but the increase in LPG and petrol prices was not reduced.

Take the hike itself. Nothing provides a better insight into the workings of the Gowda mind than his laconic one-liner: "Is there ever a hike which is welcomed by the people?" His aides have been assiduously pushing the 'brave-Gowda line'. "He has refused to be like the Congress, which kept postponing the evil-day for two years," they say. Adds senior UF leader Jaipal Reddy: "He has taken on board the genuine concerns of all the parties but has refused to let economic logic get politically reduced."

As for the consequent reduction in diesel prices, Gowda seemed to have more or less budgeted for it and his aides explain it away as a minor by-product of the tradeoff between economic imperative and political compulsion.

And there was the velvet glove a day after the petroleum hike in the form of an increase in the subsidy for potassic and phosphatic-based fertilisers (DAP and MOP), which farmers have been demanding since 1992 when these fertilisers were decontrolled.

But the speed with which he turned aggressor and let the iron fist flash when it came to the CPI(M)'s objections on the 'timing and manner of the move' took even the Leftists by surprise. Sources close to Gowda said he made it very clear that the powers of the executive rested with his Cabinet and that the UF steering committee could only set the guidelines. Asked why he couldn't have waited till the Parliament session to announce the measures, UF sources point out that he decided to brazen it out and insisted that the immediacy of the issue did not warrant a delay, especially as the price hike was not related to any budgetary provision.

Besides, Gowda knew that announcing these measures in Parliament could be messy and the concessions he would have to grant far more. The same goes for discussing the price hike in the steering committee, though on that issue he could afford to adopt the moral high ground. The CPI(M), for one, certainly feels so. Says a politburo member of the party: "He knows that nobody wants an election at the moment. And not on an issue like the price rise which, after all, was necessary. Our solutions are for an alternate approach to meet the deficit but that is far too radical for this Government. Which is why we have not joined it. And which is why we can be more vociferous in our opposition. No party can be seen supporting a measure that will increase the burden on the lower rungs of society."

Sources in the UF, however, point out that the Gowda manoeuvre has left the CPI(M) and other allies unhappy. Something Gowda needs to ensure does not happen too often or for too long if he wants to escape the fate of previous coalition governments, whose worst enemies came from within. But that is in the future. For the present, as seen in the Cabinet expansion of July 5—the other problem area for his Government—Gowda is busy alternatively succumbing to and resisting the varying pressures being brought upon him. But, as in his handling of the price rise, he seems intent on clearly defining his role.

First, as a no-nonsense Prime Minister. JDMP Maneka Gandhi, who was believed to be peeved at not finding a berth in the Council of Ministers, criticised Gowda for giving the go-ahead for the Cogentrix project in haste and leading a corrupt Government. Besides, she said that those who opposed corruption had been thrown out of the party, a clear reference to R.K. Hegde. She was expelled from the party on July 5.

Then, take the elevation of R.L. Jalappa, who was sworn in as a minister of state on June 28 but sulked as he wanted a Cabinet slot. He relented after meeting Gowda and being given independent charge of his ministry; and on July 5 he found himself elevated to Cabinet rank. Moreover, Jalappa—unlike Raghuvansh Prasad Singh who unsuccessfully lobbied for a Cabinet berth before finally accepting the independent charge sop—is from Karnataka and thus Gowda's responsibility.

Beni Prasad Varma of the Samajwadi Party, who too was unhappy with his minister of state status, was also first given independent charge and then made a Cabinet minister. The elevation of the Kurmi leader is obviously linked to the forthcoming Uttar Pradesh polls. And two DMK members were sworn in as ministers of state to keep their representation on par with the TMC'S, as Karunanidhi had insisted. But the fact that neither Mohammed Maqbool Dar, the JD MP from Anantnag, nor any UF MP from Kerala was included in the latest expansion shows that Gowda is preparing for yet another expansion. Because Dar and the latest entrant to the ranks of the unhappy, Dal MP Bhagwan Majhi from Orissa, will be joined by other 'disappointed' souls the longer it is delayed.

And last but not the least is the question mark over Union Minister of State for Home Mohammed Taslimuddin. Sources close to Gowda say he is rather unhappy about the situation, especially since evidence that the minister had criminal antecedents is mounting. Laloo is resisting moves to drop Taslimuddin, though he is said to be amenable to Gowda shifting him to a less sensitive ministry. The imponderable now is whether Gowda is serious about what he says ("whom I include in the ministry is my discretion"). And if he is, how far he is willing to push it.