FROM July-August 1994, when the Uttarakhand stir came to a boil, till very recently, even admitting affil-iation to a mainstream political party was enough to attract the choicest abuses. But today, Uttarakhand has seen the return of mainline political parties—with a vengeance.
The reasons for this are varied: divisions in the Uttarakhand movement, the disgust at leaders who are perceived to be engaged in a scramble for the benefits of power, the movement being both corrupted and compromised by the alleged inflow of funds from the timber and construction mafias, machinations of political parties et al . The result, however, is unambiguous: the disillusioned hill voter is taking things as they come. A maturing of democracy? Perhaps. But it is in such a scenario and in possibly the last elections in the region as part of Uttar Pradesh that the BJP has emerged the clear leader in the 19 assembly seats up for grabs.
Organisationally, they are functioning relatively smoothly, though they have lost a couple of important local leaders to the Congress-T. Says Devendra Bhasin, the BJP's regional spokesman: "We announced our candidates early and the campaign plans of senior leaders have been finalised. The next two weeks will see L.K. Advani, Sikander Bakht, Kalyan Singh and Sushma Swaraj addressing meetings and rallies." Even caste calculations—Uttarakhand is the only region in the state where upper castes, Brahmins and Thakurs in this case, are in a majority—are in its favour.
What the BJP does have to contend with is an extended spell of rains and the fact that a major portion of the campaign period coincides with the harvest season. These factors combined with the voters' cynicism may lead to a lower than expected turnout. Compounding the problem is the stand adopted by a section of the Uttarakhand agitation leadership which has decided to stick to its "no state, no polls" demand—they will be able to sway voters in certain areas. "We are concentrating our energies on reminding the people that we are the only party which has backed the demand for Uttarakhand," adds Bhasin. The BJP has declared that it has no problem with the proposed state being called Uttarakhand rather than the Sangh parivar's choice—Uttaranchal.
Its strategy to quell the Congress-T challenge is two-pronged. On the one hand, BJP activists have adroitly stoked the resentment against N.D. Tiwari's 'somersault' in joining forces with Mulayam, still an object of hate here for his suppression of the movement. On the other, they are driving home the point that Prime Minister Deve Gowda cannot be taken at his word because he has allies such as the CPI(M) and Mulayam.
Therefore, the Congress-T, which won two of the four Lok Sabha seats in the last election and is leading the United Front campaign in Uttarakhand, is on the defensive. Adding to its woes is the alleged rift between Tiwari and the face of his party in Garhwal, Union Minister Sat-pal Maharaj. But Tiwari still has a degree of influence in Nainital district and the advantage of aligning with Mulayam is that his party will get the support of Muslims and some non-upper castes. Says Tiwari: "While not wishing to take all the credit, the fact is that our party has been instrumental in getting the Uttarakhand announcement pushed through."
"The Congress, once the dominant party in the area, has fielded unknown faces and will be virtually wiped out," says Parpurnanand Painully, former MP from Tehri. Splinter groups of the Uttarakhand Sanyukt Sangharsh Samiti and two factions of the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal are also in the fray. But the Uttarakhand parties and the Congress can perhaps do no more than play spoilers.
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