Can BSP Blunt Saffron Edge?

SINCE 1989, Uttar Pradesh has seen the mushroom growth of Hanuman and Ambedkar statues in nearly every village. They neatly represented the two rival political trends. Hanuman was the BJP mascot for obvious reasons: its politics revolve around the construction of the Ram temple. And B.R. Ambedkar, the symbol of Dalit emancipation, is a totem for Kanshi Ram's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). When UP goes to the poll to elect its 425-member assembly in three phases—September 30, October 3 and 7—it will be the state's fourth elections since 1989. Now, most parties realise the isolated support of a community or group is not good enough. In the resultant alliances, each major contestant—the BJP, the BSP-Congress combine and the United Front (UF)—is trying to syn-thesise the trends that Hanu-man and Ambedkar represent.

The Congress, in agreeing to contest only 126 seats under the BSP's leadership, has testi-fied to the fast polarising politics of the state—and to its own bleak future as a political entity. The electoral outcome next month would also be a verdict on the UF led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, apart from the BSP. Can they take on the BJP, which has become one principal pole of the state's politics?

It is evident from the statewide poll (see pages 28-30) conducted by Outlook that the saffron juggernaut would have been unstoppable had Kanshi not tied up with the Congress and had Mulayam's Samajwadi Party (SP) not joined the UF. Though making for a three-way fight, they seem to have trimmed the BJP's chances of a majority despite a four per cent swing in its favour. Our pollsters feel that but for this coalescing, the BJP would have secured a majority alone.

But the BSP supremo is convinced about the growing two-way polarisation. "I believe that sooner rather than later, UP—and the rest of India—will see a bipolar politics. BSP and BJP will be the two poles. Others will have to rally round them," says Kanshi.

This ambitious projection has already spurred him to strike a deal with the Congress, a party he used to describe as 'Manuvadi'. Also, in selecting his 299 candidates (leaving 126 to the Congress), he has given tickets only to 86 scheduled castes. In a move intended to cut into Mulayam's support base, 102 tickets went to OBCs, and 53 to Muslims. Further diluting his party's plank, 12 Brahmins, 25 Thakurs and three Kayasthas too have been given tickets. Kanshi even advised Narasimha Rao to give at least 80 tickets to Brahmins, who form just 13.94 per cent of UP's population. Rao was smart enough to decline, realising it would have relegated the residual Congress to an all-Brahmin outfit at a time when the BJP was reaching out to a much wider social spectrum.

The BJP has considerably upped the OBC stakes, giving them a lion's share of about 190 at the cost of the upper castes—its traditional votebase. This is in line with the party's "commitment to the theory of social engineering" and its attempt to shed its Brahmin-Bania image. It reckons this will also reduce the threat of upper caste non-cooperation in the event of it grabbing power under Kalyan Singh, who belongs to the backward Lodh community.

And Kalyan is hopeful. First, he managed to wangle decent representation for OBCs despite protests from party leaders M.M. Joshi and Kalraj Mishra. Second, the bigger target for Kanshi Ram now is not he but Mulayam. His indictment by the Ramesh Chandra - Committee over the assault on Mayawati and the recent firing by his brother's gunner, in which a police officer died, provide effective ammunition against Mulayam. The BSP's success in wooing some Muslim leaders away from the UF—which is Mulayam plus Ajit Singh in about 40 constituencies in the western Jat belt—too has raised BJP hopes. "We will sweep them out of this division", claims Kalraj Mishra, state BJP chief.

On September 17, Shahi Imam Abdullah Bukhari of Delhi's Jama Masjid and Toufiq Raza, a discredited and ambitious grandson of Ala Hazarat of Bareilly, shared the dais with Kanshi to say that a BSP rule would see the Babri Masjid built in Ayodhya. Kanshi promptly dispelled such hopes, saying the BSP would go strictly by the court's decision.

Kanshi suffered a setback as the Muslim Personal Law Board and the All India Milli Council favoured the UF. But the Imam's stand on Ayodhya may spark a . Hindu backlash—which too could benefit the BJP. Counters Mulayam: "Both BJP and BSP are indulging in politics of communalism. They are helping each other. We are the only secular party." He claims that "if the BJP couldn't win in '93, a year after the demolition, it can't win now. And the BSP, without our support, is a political non-entity". In seat-sharing, Mulayam displayed rare magnanimity — accomodating all the Front constituents, including Ajit Singh, and keeping only about 270 seats for his Samajwadi Party.

As things stand, there is little doubt that the BJP will emerge the single largest party. But in case it does not get absolute majority, one might see Mayawati heading a Congress-backed government. The UF will either have to back such an arrangement or risk withdrawal of support by the Congress at the Centre. By the same token, a victory may mean a backhanded triumph for Deve Gowda.