THE contrast was stark and striking: political anxiety was soaring in the capital Lucknow as parties came to terms with the indecisive mandate thrown up by assembly elections in the nation’s most populous state. And the man who was to end the uncertainty, Governor Romesh Bhandari, was teeing off to the pop of flashbulbs.
It was par for the course. The governor had already faxed to the Centre his decision not to invite the BJP to form the government, and recommended reimposition of President’s rule. Twenty-four hours later, when the Union Cabinet complied, the largest single party was seeing—not saffron—but red, and accusing the former bureaucrat of playing—not golf—but politics.
As ironies go, even while Prime Minister Deve Gowda’s team was deliberating on Bhandari’s note, the director of the state Information Department, Rohit Nandan, had rushed to the residence of BJP leader and chief ministerial aspirant Kalyan Singh to enquire whether he would like to be sworn-in alone or with some of his colleagues. A phlegmatic Kalyan Singh replied: "Let the formal invitation come from the governor. Only then shall I inform you." In the event, the invite never arrived. Still, Kalyan Singh made it to the Raj Bhawan that evening with slogan-shouting party colleagues and workers in tow: not to take oath as the state’s chief minister for a second time, but to demand Bhandari’s resignation for "murdering democracy". Calm just moments ago, Kalyan Singh was now simmering with anger at the governor: "I’ve answers to your logic but I don’t have any answer to your beimani (dishonesty)."
Raj Bhawan staff had in fact been making arrangements for the swearing-in ceremony—chairs had been brought in and security staff of VIPs had reached the governor’s office-cum-residence for advance security checks—when the PTI ticker relayed the ‘flash’ that, acting on Bhandari’s recommendation, the Centre had decided to place the assembly in suspended animation and reimpose President’s rule for another six months.
The curtain had come down on the five-day-long drama of suspense and uncertainty. It was back to square one. And President’s rule. Journalists and camera crews monitoring the developments immediately rushed to the BJP office. The hope that the party would be invited to form the government because of the failure of the United Front to back a Mayawati-led regime had given way and a pall of gloom had set in. But there were vital points to be scored. Putting on a brave face, the party prepared to take out a procession to the Raj Bhawan and get back to its major preoccupation—launching an agitation. This time to oust Bhandari.
But Bhandari was not so concerned about the BJP’s ire as the possible reaction from Dalits and OBCs, among others, in case he invited the BJP to form the government despite clear cut opposition from 234 MLAs belonging to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and other United Front (UF) constituents. Even so, it was clear from the very beginning that despite their opposition to the BJP, the warring SP and BSP leaders were not ready to bury the hatchet. On October 18, he made a trip to New Delhi nevertheless to apprise Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda of the situation.
While the validity of the reimposition of President’s rule will be decided by the judiciary, it has definitely widened the scope for MLAs to shift loyalties. And the BSP is the most paranoid party on that account. Fearing that its MLAs might be lured, either by the SP or the BJP, the BSP has virtually placed all its 67 MLAs under lock and key in the party office. But with the assembly under suspended animation, they cannot be held back for long. That perhaps accounts for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s announcement in Kanpur soon after that ultimately the UF would form the government in .
INITIALLY, BSP supremo Kanshi Ram tried to pressure his way into installing a BSP government. On the one hand, he expressed willingness to break bread with the BJP and, on the other hand, he declared in a press conference in Delhi: "Deve Gowda dhoti khol kar bhi mujhe samarthan dene ayega (Deve Gowda will support me come what may)." But the spectre of the BJP did not move Mulayam. In fact, the BSP’s alliance with the BJP would have suited Mulayam and he would have fractured the BSP’s ambition to cultivate a separate Muslim constituency.
The BJP leadership was also aware of Mulayam’s gameplan. Although they were desperately looking for some kind of an understanding with the BSP, they did not want to abet Mulayam’s strategy. "We don’t want Mulayam to be the winner. He wants to discredit the BSP to win the game. Why should we make things easy for him," said a party general secretary and ruled out the possibility of a BJP-BSP alliance—at least in round one of this election. This was even before state BJP president Kalraj Mishra had met the governor to present its claim.
Had it not been for a stiff resistance from Mulayam, the UF would perhaps have gone along with the BSP and even help install Mayawati as chief minister. But Mulayam was emphatic at the UF steering committee meeting: no go. He said the UF shouldn’t accept a candidate whose secular credentials were in doubt—an obvious reference to Maya-wati’s earlier dalliance with the BJP to stay in power. The CPI(M) General Secretary, Harkishen Singh Surjeet, spoke on Mula-yam’s behalf. "How can we accept blackmail?" he said. Other UF constituents were not in a position to overrule Mulayam too as 110 out of 134 UF MLAs in UP belong to the Samajwadi Party.
The stalemate continues in spite of the reimposition of President’s rule. And what an elderly lady said in front of the Raj Bhawan just sums up the people’s mood: "People have taught politicians a lesson. Earlier they made us fight over issues like mandir-masjid. Now we’ve made them fight over forming the government."
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