A State Of Tension

The majority of the candidates are yet to begin campaigning in their constituencies for fear of being attacked

In Manipur, which goes to polls to elect its 60-member state assembly in two phases on February 12 and 22, two issues are in focus: which alliance will make it as the single largest entity to get a first shot at power? And will real polling take place at all in the five hill districts of the state?

With only 14 lakh voters, a surfeit of parties and alliances makes the electoral scenario utterly confusing. But for the administrators, the main worry is ensuring security of candidates, a reasonable turnout in the backdrop of a boycott diktat issued by the underground National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and to prevent violence.

The NSCN, which has a dominant presence in at least two of the five hill districts of the state, has cast a long shadow over the poll process. The militant outfit, currently in negotiations with the Centre, says it does not want elections but needs a solution to the Naga problem and hence won’t allow polling. The warning is real and even the electoral authorities have acknowledged it by permitting candidates from the hill districts to file their nominations in the capital, Imphal.

Most candidates are yet to go to their constituencies for fear of being attacked. Says Prof Gangumei Kamei, president of the Federal Party of Manipur and an ally of the ruling United Front: "Yes, security is certainly a problem in the hill areas but that doesn’t stop us from campaigning." Bhubaneshwar Kalita, aicc observer, adds: "Many of our contestants have not been able to go to their constituencies for lack of security."

CM Nipamacha Singh admits the security threat but says arrangements are being made to meet it. "I’m sure we’ll have proper security," he says. But his officers differ. In an sos to the Centre, the state government has projected a requirement of 447 companies of security forces to ensure a violence-free and fair polling. That’s a staggering 44,000 security personnel. At the moment, however, the state has only 120-odd companies, including its own armed police.

Security apart, the talking point in the run-up to the elections has been the parting of ways between the ruling Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) and the BJP. Each side blames the other for the rift. Says P.B. Acharya, BJP’s Northeast coordinator: "We tried our best to come to an understanding with the MSCP but their adamant attitude came in the way. In fact, it is gross treachery on MSCP’s part not to have accommodated us." Counters Nipamacha Singh: "The BJP has double standards. It was not willing to apply uniform norms for seat sharing, so how can we agree?" The two parties had fought the last Lok Sabha elections together and MSCP’s lone MP, Chaoba Singh, was given a berth in the Union council of ministers. The bitter parting of ways has also put a question mark on Chaoba’s continuation in the Vajpayee ministry.

The MSCP-BJP divide has given hope to the new Secular Democratic Front (SDF). The SDF, comprising the Congress, Manipur People’s Party, CPI, JD(s) and rsp, is banking on a three-way fight to see many of its candidates through. Says Kalita: "The BJP and MSCP will divide their own votes which will give us advantage in some seats."

At the moment, though, the administration is more worried about the deteriorating law and order situation in the state. Already, three ministers have been attacked, one contestant has been killed and bombs have exploded at various places. With the NSCN boycott call firmly in place and other insurgent groups active, elections in Manipur are likely to be more violent than ever before.