Which Road To Mandalay?

Last week’s reunion with Kim should have a salutary impact on Suu Kyi, said a confidant of hers. “It should help her relax and take her mind off the more stressful political options she will have to think about, and above all, it should help her listen to people, gather information and views from a wide cross-section, especially the youth,” he said on condition of anonymity.

Stressful days sure are ahead of Suu Kyi. Free for nearly two weeks now, she has met her supporters in Myanmar and talked to a clutch of world leaders. But nothing has changed in the country—the army remains entrenched in power. Says local businessman Htay Win, “If you don’t go anywhere near Suu Kyi’s house or the NLD headquarters, you wouldn’t know anything had changed in the city. Life goes on as usual.” There is very little about her in the local newspapers—in fact, seven independent journals were suspended this week for merely trying to publish Suu Kyi’s photos after her release. “Suu Kyi has to play a cat-and-mouse game with the regime,” the British author and Suu Kyi’s biographer, Justin Wintle, told Outlook. Restrained she may have been in her comments since her release on November 13, “but the compassion, commitment and courage are all still there,” Wintle added.

This the European Union ambassadors found out to their cost, during two crucial meetings with the Lady, which is how the junta refers to her. Suu Kyi told the four European ambassadors based in Yangon and the European Union representative that the allies needed to coordinate their approach and speak with one voice, criticising them for what she saw as their weak statement on Myanmar’s elections. She warned them not to be a victim of the junta’s divide and rule tactics. “If they’re going to let the regime divide and rule them, I think that would be a disgrace for the EU,” she told the German press agency. Most EU countries are known to be anxious to see Suu Kyi—now that she is free—speak for easing or lifting sanctions. The NLD previously supported economic sanctions against Myanmar, though since her release she has promised to look at the question.

But almost unnoticed amid the euphoria of Suu Kyi’s release, the regime very quietly announced the pro-junta United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) as victorious. So Than Shwe has got what he wanted. But the big question remains: what form will this new so-called civilian administration take? And how will Than Shwe manipulate the process?

Since the elections, Than Shwe has visited the presidential palace on at least three or four occasions, fanning rumours that he is planning to become Myanmar’s first president. But this is not his gameplan, according to military sources. U Thura Shwe Mann, the general who was forced to retire to fight the election, seems destined to take that post. He was introduced to China’s leaders during Than Shwe’s visit to Beijing several months ago as the future president, according to Chinese diplomats in the capital.

Than Shwe is certain to continue as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, for he must keep control of the army. Perhaps a year later he may step down in favour of someone whom he trusts, once the new system of government has settled down, and become the USDP’s honorary president. But Than Shwe will also be an MP, according to military sources. The 166 military positions in parliament—under the constitution 25 per cent of the seats in all parliaments are reserved for serving soldiers—will be filled by almost all the current top brass in the army, with the senior general at the helm of this caucus. This will dash the hopes of those who thought there would be a dialogue between soldiers and civilians in parliament and hence a change in policy.

Ignored by the regime thus far, Suu Kyi could draw hope from the signs of change between younger officers and the old guard in the army. Significantly, some army recruits turned up at the NLD headquarters when Suu Kyi was first released to show their support. Says Win Min, a US-based Myanmar expert on the military, “Public displays of support by soldiers (for Suu Kyi) are unusual. But there are many in the army who are frustrated by the lack of progress in the country and look to her for leadership.” 

Though Min ruled out a coup, there are many who believe the younger generation of army commanders are a different breed from their former superiors. They are more open to change, a senior military officer told Outlook. It all now depends on how Suu Kyi carves out a space for herself in the emerging scenario.