When The Snow Melts

New Delhi has been bitten once too often to rush to conclusions about any signs of hope from across the border. No wonder senior officials here feel it is premature to pass a verdict on the Pakistan government's intentions to establish a modicum of control over terrorist outfits.

Musharraf had, in a national telecast on January 12, 2002, committed his government to curbing terrorism. A few tentative measures were taken: low level cadres were arrested, a few leaders placed under house arrest and some camps relocated from PoK.

Gradually, though, Kashmir slipped back into the chaos that has been its fate for 13 years now. The incarcerated jehadi leaders were back to fomenting terrorism. So is there any certainty that 2003 won't prove different? "We aren't prejudging anything," says a bureaucrat, wondering whether pressure brought to bear on jehadi outfits can be sustained.

Indications are the situation in the Valley hasn't changed. Since communications traffic along the LoC continues apace, the infiltration could intensify once the snow melts in the mountain passes in July. Till then, the jury is out.

Similarly, communication intercepts show Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammed commanders urging cadre to continue targeting security forces and intelligence agencies—but to avoid civilians. Secessionist leaders and terrorists are worried at the possibility of a thaw between New Delhi and Islamabad. Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani has been advised to harp on self-determination.

The Hizb and the Jamiat-ul Mujahideen have issued statements claiming to have "mobile training camps inside the Valley". Through such statements they want to convey the impression that they are indigenous groups. In contrast, the Lashkar has been ordered to credit their attacks to the Kashmir Freedom Force, an amalgamation of four local groups—the Al-Burq, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen, Ansar-ul-Islam and Harkat-ul Jehadi Islam. The attack on Radio Kashmir was credited to the Kashmir Freedom Force.