Weak, Old Mandarins

The diplomat’s observation is likely to have the endorsement of his fraternity, which learned to resent the Left’s instinctive opposition to America—a stance that yields little diplomatic dividend in the post-Cold War era. This resentment turned into hostility and disbelief as the Left carped and created obstacles during the protracted negotiations for the Indo-US nuclear deal. Their opposition culminated in the Left withdrawing its support to UPA-I, oblivious of the fact that the people were either rejoicing over the nuke deal or were indifferent to it. But that’s a thing of the past. “The nation isn’t going to witness another nuclear moment in a hurry,” says another diplomat. The irony is that the Left’s decision to withdraw support diminished its clout at the Centre and heralded its decline in West Bengal.

For the moment, though, the Left’s reversals of fortune won’t have much of an impact on foreign policy. This is because the current UPA government, unlike its previous incarnation in 2004, isn’t dependent on the Left’s support for its survival. Should the Left’s free-fall continue till 2014, when the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled to take place, then its pronouncements on foreign policy will truly become irrelevant. However, CPI leader Gurudas Dasgupta told Outlook, “The Left’s relevance does not depend on its numbers in Parliament. We will continue to fight for the implementation of a foreign policy based on non-alignment and respect for peaceful coexistence with all our neighbours.”

For the most part in post-Independence India, the Left has supported the government’s foreign policy as it remained largely non-aligned, though, some would say, with a pro-Soviet tilt. The surfacing of differences between the Congress and the Left coincided with the disintegration of the USSR and India’s efforts to improve its relations with the US.

But in an increasingly multi-polar world, with the US still enjoying a position of some eminence, there is little to indicate that the Manmohan Singh government, or even its successor, will not stay the course. There’s also a broad consensus among the political parties to pursue a foreign policy with the potential to foster peace and better relations with our neighbours. The contentious issue in foreign policy remains Indo-US relations, but the Left’s criticism of the relationship has been tempered somewhat since Barack Obama took up residence in the White House, where he’s now likely to stay ensconced after the next US presidential election.

Observers, therefore, say the Left will oppose specific aspects of foreign policy that have an economic dimension—for instance, allowing foreign players into the retail and insurance sectors. “These are the areas where the government is likely to face stiff opposition from the Left, which may even find allies on such issues from other political parties,” historian and political commentator Mahesh Rangarajan told Outlook.

These are also issues, which the general public can identify with, that will provide ammunition to the Left which, as its leaders say, has little option but to take to the streets now that it has been ousted from power. Dasgupta confirms, “There is no doubt that, in the changed circumstances, our interaction with the masses will increase.” So those in the foreign policy establishment who are rejoicing at the Left’s defeat may soon realise that democracy is not just about the numbers you have in Parliament. It’s something that goes far beyond the corridors of power. It’s about street power.