Whether their claim is true or not, the emergence of a self-declared nuclear weapon state on the Koreanpeninsula creates a dangerous new dynamic. It could lead to the nuclear arming of Japan and calls for USwithdrawal from South Korea, or, worse yet, to a catastrophic conflict. Of course, the detailed list ofdemands that North Korea presented to the US in Beijing could also be seen as an attempt at reaching a grandbargain - a simultaneous dismantling of its nuclear program in exchange for recognition, regime security andeconomic aid. But Washington seems to rule out simultaneous steps by both sides, because it would not considermaking any concessions until there is "verifiable and irreversible termination" of the North'snuclear programs. Given North Korea's deep suspicion of the Bush administration, it is unlikely to comply.President Bush has already characterized the North Korean nuclear weapon claim as "blackmail",making the demand for verifiable dismantling of North Korea's nuclear program a precondition for talks firmerthan ever. Unless North Korean leaders look at the precipice ahead and slam on the brakes, a disaster seemsunavoidable.