The Volte Face

The statement will be seen as an attempt to reinforce central authority on the Tamil areas by taking advantage of the perceived weakening of the military capability of the LTTE due to the split in its political leadership between Prabhakaran and Karuna, his Eastern commander, since March last year and the damages reportedly suffered by the LTTE's sea wing in the Tsunami last December.

As already mentioned by me in my earlier article, The Wages ofVictory, the perception of a weakening of the LTTE could prove to be a delusion and any political calculation based on such a misperception could boomerang.

The following are the salient points of the new policy package announced by Mr.Rajapakse on November 25:

• He demanded a new ceasefire agreement with the LTTE and its "transparent" monitoring.
  
  
• He wanted to institute a new peace process that would not tolerate "terrorism" and recruitment of child soldiers.
  
  
• He said the peace process between the previous Government and the LTTE did not make progress because other stakeholders were left out.
  
  
• He was ready to open talks with the LTTE, but rejected the LTTE's concept of a Tamil homeland."Sri Lanka will be the traditional homeland of all its people - Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims, Malays and Burgers," he added.
  
  
• A political solution would be found within a "unitary state" --- a U-turn for his Sri Lanka Freedom Party that had previously agreed to devolve powers to the Sri Lankan Tamils under a federal structure.
  
  
• He said his administration was committed to peacefully ending the conflict and would pursue peace talks, but they would not be confined to only the Government and the LTTE. "Our agenda, which shall be open and transparent, shall include vital concerns such as renouncing separatism, demilitarisation, discussion towards a final solution and the implementation of such a solution.Talks are not going to be easy,but the path we choose is talks."

Mr.Rajapakse has sought to throw the gauntlet not only at the LTTE, but also at the international community by going back on the assurances given by past Sri Lankan Governments for seeking a federal solution to the aspirations of the Tamils within a unified Sri Lanka and by seeking to dilute the role of the LTTE in any future negotiations by making it one of the interlocutors in any talks and not the sole interlocutor as it had wanted. India and the other members of the international community had been supportive of the policies of the previous Governments of seeking a federal solution within a unified Sri Lanka. 

In going back on the solemn commitments of the past, he has shown insensitivity and indifference to the views of India and other members of the international community. By even not waiting till his expected visit to India for his first meeting with our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh before announcing his new hard-line policy package, he has sought to convey a message that in his efforts to find a solution to the problems of the Sri Lankan Tamils, the views and sensitivities of India may not have for him the same importance as they had for the previous Governments.

The Government of India and other members of the international community need to carefully consider the long-term implications ofMr. Rajapakse's policy volte face and insist on past assurances and commitments being honoured.. The various Tamil political parties of Tamil Nadu have also an important political and moral responsibility to ensure that the likely negative implications of Mr.Rajapakse's volte face are clearly brought to the notice of the Government of India.

What are the likely ground scenarios involving the LTTE?

Scenario No 1: The LTTE pockets its pride and agrees to the new conditions.Likelihood: 25% or even less.

Scenario No 2: The LTTE resumes its conventional war against the Sri Lankan army.Likelihood: 50%

Scenario No 3: The LTTE steps up its acts of terrorism directed against important political targets.Likelihood: 60%

Scenario No 4: The LTTE steps up its covert war against important strategic and economic targets.Likelihood: 70%

The future does not bode well for Sri Lanka. 

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai.