The Inscrutable Chinese

Till the time of writing of this article (5-30 PM onJanuary 22, 2007), the Chinese authorities have not yet confirmed that they diddestroy on January 11, 2007, one of their old weather satellites (Fengyun 1 C)with a missile fired from the ground. Why this silence since they should haveknown that the destruction of the satellite by a missile fired from the groundcannot remain a secret? Were they not aware of the dangers that could arise fromthe innumerable space debris caused by the destruction? If they were aware, whythey did not alert the rest of the international community?  If they hadalerted, nobody could have forced them to give up their attempt.

Does the Chinese silence indicate that it was a rogueoperation by the Chinese military and scientists without informing the politicalleadership? If it was, does this indicate that President Hu Jintao does not asyet have total control over the armed forces despite his being the Chairman ofthe Central Military Commission?

Only the US and Russia-- more the US than Russia--  have the capability to detect such an exercise by China--at least after theevent, if not simultaneously with it. Almost all the information the world hashad on the event has come from Aerican sources. All that one knows for certainis that Fengyun 1 C, whose orbit was being tracked by the space organisations ofmany countries-- more particularly by the US' North American Aerospace DefenceCommand  (NORAD)--  disappeared from its usual 542-mile-high orbit at 5-30PM on January 11, which was 6-30 AM Beijing time on January 12, 2007. Before itsdisappearance from its usual orbit, it was reported to have been tracked fivetimes on January 11, 2007, by the tracking stations of many countries.

Its disappearance could have been due to only threecauses--  an internal explosion causing its disintegration; or an accidental collision with a meteorite or other space debris; or a deliberate exercise bythe Chinese authorities to test their anti-satellite capability. Till now, thespeculation has been that its disintegration was caused as part of a deliberateexercise by the Chinese authorities.

In the past-- 20 years ago--  the then USSR and the UShad successfully caused the disintegration of their satellites in orbit as partof an exercise to test and prove their anti-satellite capability. The USSR useda killer satellite for this purpose-- that is, it fired another satellite intoorbit and manoeuvred it into position in order to collide with the target satellite and cause its disintegration. The US did so with a missile fired fromone of its aircraft. The USSR had never tried to achieve this with a missilefired from the ground and guided towards a satellite. The US had tried, butreportedly failed.

The speculation-- based on information from Americansources--  is that the Chinese caused the destruction through a missile firedand guided from the ground--  a feat, which no other country has so farachieved. If true, it speaks highly of the Chinese scientific capability. Howdid the Americans come to this conclusion? Were they able to detect the firingof the Chinese missile and track it till it destroyed the old weather satellite?Probably so, but they would not admit it lest it gives a clue to others abouttheir detection capability.

India has reasons to be concerned-- not because theChinese anti-satellite capability poses a direct threat to India, but becausethe successful Chinese test, if true, shows how far ahead of India  are theChinese in their scientific and technological capabilities. India is far, farlagging behind the Chinese in almost every field--  whether it be economicdevelopment or modernisation of its armed forces or its space and missilecapabilities or even sports. The Chinese have a very, very lucid understandingof what is in their national interest and are prepared to achieve theirobjectives whatever be the price-- material or diplomatic. They are not botheredabout what the US or the rest of the world would think of their action.

Once they are convinced that a certain thing isnecessary in their national interest, they keep moving towards it like a homingpigeon. Indian leadership, policy-makers and the so-called strategic analysts-- whoare a bunch of wishful thinkers--  lack such a lucid understanding  and asteely determination. Look at the editorial on the Chinese feat carried by the IndianExpress, whose author anybody can identify. What does he want ?-- that Indiashould catch up with China by collaborating with the US. As if the US is waitingimpatiently to help us catch up with China technologically! 

The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), CabinetSecretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute ForTopical Studies, Chennai