The Gun's On The Prez

The Dawn

The police abstained because this is what the military regime wanted. The symbiotic relationship between the military and the MQM is decades old: it miraculously surfaced in Sindh in the '80s because the generals wanted to ward off the PPP; it's now being exploited to scare democratic forces off the streets. The violence goaded ex-cricketer Imran Khan to declare, "The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (his party) will file a case against Prime Minister Tony Blair in the UK for harbouring (MQM leader) Altaf Hussain who heads a fascist organisation."

As Karachi burnt and bled on May 12, hundreds of miles away in Islamabad, another rally was under way. Brought from Punjab in truckloads, its participants were dancing and singing in praise of the man who was to address them. Fortified behind a bullet-proof glass wall, Musharraf thundered, "If they (opposition) think they are powerful, then they should know that people's power is with us." And lest there was any confusion on what people power meant, it was removed the following day when armed men shot dead Chaudhry confidant and the additional registrar of the Supreme Court, Syed Hamad Raza. "This was target killing to send a message to the judiciary. All of you should be careful," Raza's wife, Shabana, wailed to Chaudhry when he came to console her.

As the National Assembly echoed with slogans of Zalimon jawab do, khoon ka hisab do, qatil jawab do, Lt Gen (retd) Talat Masood told Outlook that Karachi was eloquent testimony to Musharraf's incredible insensitivity. It is perhaps a result of the cornered situation the general finds himself in. As Masood explained, "Either he immediately announces fair and free elections and advances the dates for them, or he takes off his uniform till the next presidential elections. He can cling to power and keep using the military to perpetuate his stay by further amending the Constitution or abandoning it altogether. This move will surely take us towards more anarchy."

he civil unrest is bound to impact the army. As Masood pointed out, "The army is part and parcel of this society and is seeing what is perturbing us all today. I'm sure there are some who are advising him (correctly) but there are others who have a vested interest in their chief staying." Others like The Post editor Rasheed Rahman feel Karachi has robbed Musharraf of his moral high ground. "While his regime spirals downwards towards its end, the question of his re-election as president for another five years by the existing assemblies while he retains his uniform has been thrown up into the air," Rahman said.

Those who back Musharraf differ from this prognosis. They feel the ruling Pakistan MuslimLeague (Q) and Musharraf can ride the storm. PML(Q) secretary-general Mushahid Hussain told Outlook how: "The main focus is the CJ issue and whatever happens in the future will centre around the verdict of the full court. If it upholds the government's reference (that Chaudhry misused his office), then things are settled. If the decision is against us, then it too is a situation the government can live with. There is no doubt that the CJ case has been mishandled, and the government's moral authority has been weakened."

Hussain feels the government can be bailed out because the opposition is speaking in different voices. There are the doves, like the PPP and Jamiat Ulema Islam (Fazlur), who are focused on the parliamentary election and want the transition to democracy to happen under Musharraf. In contrast, "the hawks," Hussain says, "want the immediate dissolution of the present system and Musharraf's ouster. Should we not have another May 12, the situation could change for the government". The PML(Q) leader also sees no threat to Musharraf emanating from the army. "There is no direct confrontation between the army and the civilians as we saw in the '68 and '71 era. The Pakistan army is a highly disciplined institution based on high loyalty to its chief."

Others would see Hussain's analysis as nothing but a ploy to divide the opposition. Cautions PPP leader Farhatullah Babar, "The situation is fast getting out of hand. Musharraf will be best advised to withdraw the judicial reference against Chaudhry and immediately hold fair and free elections under a caretaker and neutral set-up, and an independent election commission. All political parties and leaders, including Benazir and Sharif, should be allowed to participate. If not done immediately, then even this option will run out for Musharraf."

Indeed, analysts feel, people are in no mood to accept Musharraf even if he gives up his uniform and gets the current electoral college to elect him. As Imtiaz Alam of the South Asia Free Media Association points out, "That kind of transition to democracy will not be peaceful—it will be accompanied by mayhem as witnessed in Karachi."

These must be extremely lonely days for Musharraf. Even the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, the umbrella group of religious parties which voted on a constitutional amendment that enabled Musharraf to retain his uniform, has turned against him. Its leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, has petitioned the court against Musharraf, saying he can no longer hold the post of army chief since he has attained the age of superannuation in 2003.

The cruellest cut for Musharraf, though, has come from Willam B. Milam, a former US ambassador to Pakistan, who wrote in Daily Times, "In Moby Dick, the Captain ends up being dragged to the ocean bottom by the white whale that was the object of his obsession. While I do not see how Musharraf can avoid being dragged down by his seeming obsession to be re-elected while in uniform ...the Pakistani ship...will, however, continue to float."