Tactics Change

The latest audio-taped message, purported to be of Osama bin Laden, which was disseminated by  AlArabia and Al Jazeera TV channels on April 14,2004, differs from the previous three messages of his in certainrespects.

• Firstly, it is more of a general nature than the three previous messages, which were almost exclusivelyrelated to Iraq.
  
  
• Secondly, it is less virulent than the previous messages.
  
  
• Thirdly, the threats uttered are mainly against Israel and the US. The second message had containedthreats against the US, the UK, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan and Italy and the third against the rulers ofIslamic States collaborating with the US.
  
  
• Fourthly, the latest message is mainly addressed to the people of Europe and not to their governmentswhereas the previous ones were addressed to the people of Iraq or to the governments of the targetedcountries.
  
  
• And fifthly, it is less lucid than the earlier messages and it is, therefore, more difficult to interpretits real meaning.

The latest message contains no threats against the Islamic states collaborating with the US and adopts aconciliatory tone towards the European countries. In fact, he has started his message with the followingintroduction:

"This is a message to our neighbours north of the Mediterranean, containing a reconciliationinitiative as a response to their positive reactions."

When he says "as a response to their positive reactions", he is definitely  referring to theannouncement of the newly-elected government of Spain that it would withdraw its troops from Iraq by June30,2004, unless, in the meanwhile, the foreign troops deployed in Iraq are brought under the UN mandate.

But the message also relates to other European countries, where too he claims to have noticed positivetrends. He says:

"In order to deny war merchants a chance and in response to the positive interaction shown by recentevents and opinion polls, which indicate that most European peoples want peace, I ask honest people,especially ulema, preachers and merchants, to form a permanent committee to enlighten European peoples of thejustice of our causes, above all Palestine. They can make use of the huge potential of the media."

In the past, bin Laden used to contemptuously dismiss the Western media as controlled by the Zionists, butnow he talks of their potential.

He wants the next three months to be utilised by Islamic clerics and businessmen to educating the people ofEurope about the justness of the cause of the Muslims, particularly with reference to Palestine. When doesthis three month period of preparation for conciliation start? It is evident it started from the day thismessage was recorded by him. The message says:

"The door of reconciliation is open for three months of (from?) the date of announcing thisstatement."

The message does not indicate when it was recorded, but it refers to the Madrid explosions of March 11 andto the killing of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the Hamas leader, by the Israelis on March 22. However, it does notrefer to the latest armed upsurge in Fallujah, Baghdad and other cities of Iraq and to their suppression bythe US.

Thus, it is clear it has been recorded between March 23 and 29. The three months period referred to by himcoincides with the period at the end of which Spain intends withdrawing its troops from Iraq (by June 30).

9. Before making the reconciliation offer, he makes the following appeal to the people of  Europe:

"The examination of the developments that have been taking place, in terms of killings in ourcountries and your countries, will make clear an important fact; namely, that injustice is inflicted on us andon you by your politicians, who send your sons - although you are opposed to this - to our countries to killand be killed. Therefore, it is in both sides' interest to curb the plans of those who shed the blood ofpeoples for their narrow personal interest and subservience to the White House gang.  The Zionist lobbyis one of the most dangerous and most difficult figures of this group. God willing, we are determined to fightthem.


We must take into consideration that this war brings billions of dollars in profit to the major companies,whether it be those that produce weapons or those that contribute to reconstruction, such as the HalliburtonCompany, its sisters and daughters. Based on this, it is very clear who is the one benefiting from ignitingthis war and from the shedding of blood. It is the warlords, the bloodsuckers, who are steering the worldpolicy from behind a curtain."

He wants the forces of Islam and the people of Europe to join hands to defeat the conspiracy of the US andIsrael directed against the Muslims of the world. The message, in an apparent reference to European countriesother than Spain, says

:"I also offer a reconciliation initiative to them, whose essence is our commitment to stoppingoperations against every country that commits itself to not attacking Muslims or interfering in theiraffairs."

The message says:

"The reconciliation will start with the departure of its last soldier from our country."

It is not clear what he means by "our country". Palestine or Iraq? It is apparently Iraq sinceEuroean soldiers are present mainly in Iraq and it is their departure he is demanding as a condition  forreconciliation.

It is thus evident that the message which he is trying to convey to the people of Europe to whom it isaddressed has the following salient points: 

• It welcomes the decision of the new Spanish Government to withdraw its trrops from Iraq and indicatesindirectly without saying so in clear terms a suspension of operations directed against the Spanish people.
  
  
• It claims that there are indications of a similar positive change in the attitude of the people of othercountries of Europe.
  
  
• It asks Muslim clerics and businessmen to educate the people of Europe during the next three months about the justness of the cause of the Muslims and about the injustice done to them.
  
  
• It appeals to the people in the rest of Europe to join hands with the Muslims in  defeating theso-called  US conspiracy directed against the Muslims.
  
  
• It hints that if the people of the other countries of Europe  emulate the Spanish people and bringabout a withdrawal of the troops of their countries from Iraq, the offer of reconciliation would apply to themtoo.

"This reconciliation can be renewed once the period signed by the first government expires and asecond government is formed with the consent of both parties."

It is not clear what he means by it.

While one should take note of such messages purporting to be from  bin Laden, one should not attachtoo much importance to them. He has the habit of claiming credit for incidents for which there is noconclusive proof of his Al Qaeda having been responsible and uttering threats against those who have earnedhis wrath for the moment. His ability to motivate and influence the activities of Muslims in different partsof the world should not be over-assessed.

The less virulent tone in the message and its talk of a reconciliation towards Europe subject to certainconditions seem to be motivated more by a desire to drive a wedge between the US and those countries of Europesupporting the US policies in Iraq than by any realisation that terrorism does not pay. It seems to indicatemore a change of tactics than of strategy.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director,Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow and Convdenor, Observer Research Foundation (ORF),Chennai Chapter.