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The deal also brings into sharp relief the menacing nature of threat Islamists pose to Pakistan. Explosions rock cities daily. The militants have virtually usurped the state’s monopoly of coercive powers—and last year, nearly 10,000 people, including soldiers, died in terror-related attacks or military operations countrywide. People here feel that not only is the US unsympathetic to Pakistan’s wounds, its vulnerabilities are being exploited by the Congress-led coalition government in India.
India may sound righteous in demanding action on Mumbai, it may blame all its woes on its neighbour, but for the ordinary citizen of Pakistan, New Delhi’s tough talk is seen to be driven by electoral compulsions, a brazen strategy to harvest votes. When most thought India would warmly welcome Islamabad’s unprecedented admission to its soil being used to engineer cross-border attacks, and step forward to strengthen Pakistan’s fight against terror, foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee preened in Parliament on February 18. Pakistan’s admission had been secured, he boasted, without mobilising troops on the border.
Such statements have raised the hackles of the foreign office. One of its additional secretaries, Abdul Basit, told Outlook, "Once and for all, India needs to break the carapace of its animosity toward Pakistan and move beyond the extremely unhelpful rhetoric driven by its domestic political compulsions." Clearly, most policy wonks ascribe such rhetoric to electoral expediency, the UPA’s need to deny its rivals the weapon of Mumbai in the election.
Pranab’s grandstanding could harden Pakistan’s position. As such, Islamabad will now increasingly harp on the "30 questions" it submitted to New Delhi. Many of these pertain to the role of an "internal hand" in Mumbai, which the saffron brigade in India is tom-tomming. As the electoral temperature rises in India, the UPA can also write off the possibility of securing fresh concessions from Islamabad. As Basit said, "India needs to do more. It can’t deny that there is an internal facet to the Mumbai attacks. Unless the gaps in evidence are plugged, a tenable case can’t be established against the suspects."
Nor can India expect the international community to continue mounting pressure on Pakistan. As defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa told Outlook, "Internal security advisor Rehman Malik’s press conference (in which he detailed the steps Pakistan took on Mumbai) has surprised the international community, and it might not be too keen to push Pakistan further." She says it’s difficult for Pakistan to meet India’s expectations, particularly as these remain nebulous and get incrementally raised. "India cannot get any more out of Pakistan," Siddiqa added, "until it shows eagerness to look at the involvement of its people in the Mumbai attack".
Security expert Gen (retd) Talat Masood says India’s attempt to isolate Pakistan is a flawed strategy. The international community will not do India’s bidding because the growing insurgency in Pakistan’s tribal belt has both regional and global implications. "International support for Pakistan is imperative," Masood told Outlook. He lists other factors on the implausibility of isolating Pakistan—it’s the second-largest Muslim country, a nuclear power, strategically located, and a close ally of the US and NATO in combating terrorism. In addition, India will have to countenance Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Such imperatives, say analysts, will not prompt Delhi into "sane thinking". Tough talk will continue, but the crisis, says former director-general of military intelligence Gen (retd) Asad Durrani, will "most probably drag on till it fades out". The only step forward, Durrani adds, is to institute a joint Pak-India probe into Mumbai—only that can help surmount the historic distrust between the two countries and overcome the instinctive opposition of bureaucrats to peace. But then, you could argue, a joint probe isn’t an issue that is likely to make the Indian voter swoon with excitement.
Lost consequently is the opportunity for India and Pakistan to work together against terror, to stabilise South Asia. As Mushahid Hussain, who heads the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, told Outlook, "Mumbai is yet another case of a missed opportunity. Even now India should wake up and smell the coffee as Mumbai presents a new opening. India should show it has a big heart and an open mind. This will be for the common good of South Asia."
Perhaps the only person Outlook found optimistic is Jalil Abbas Jillani, who has served in India and is currently the ambassador to Australia. Advocating close cooperation between India and Pakistan to fight the scourge of terrorism, Jillani told Outlook, "There’s a strong support for a non-military solution to ongoing disputes and differences. Tension will also retard economic development, which both can ill-afford. I have no doubt we will soon return to the negotiating table and pick up the threads from where we left in November ’08."
To the negotiating table India will come, most Pakistani analysts feel, but after a spell of brinkmanship in the weeks before the general election. As India mulls over its strategy, it should recall what its prime minister, Manmohan Singh, said in April ’05—that the two countries must work towards irreversible peace.
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