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Still A Guest At The Party

India's Security Council bid is stuck — G-4 commitments and a reluctant US aren't helping

The Indian delegation was on tenterhooks about the shadow of the G-4 politics darkening the PM's visit. US officials had strongly said a vote on the G-4 resolution any time soon was a bad idea. Natwar Singh split from the official party and landed in New York last Saturday to attend a G-4 foreign ministers' meeting. The decision to force a vote was postponed until another day, another time and a mechanism was developed to consult African countries who haven't got their act together on either their candidates or the question of the veto. They want seats with a veto, an issue the Permanent Five have clearly said will make the whole idea of expansion DOA—dead on arrival. India is in a peculiar situation—it can't abandon the G-4 because it firmly believes joining hands with Japan, Germany and Brazil has raised its profile. "The whole world recognises India as a credible aspirant. US support is essential but not sufficient for India's bid," commented a senior official.

The Bush administration has said it wants other reforms which it finds more pressing. But it also acknowledges that India's aspirations have to be accommodated. Therefore, it says it will support only a small expansion—Japan and one or two more permanent members. The American criteria for that unknown one or two new members are tailor-made to fit India but it is not clear when a resolution that suits the US will be introduced. Officials here stress that none of the Permanent Five has voiced objections to India's bid. China has opposed Japan, which the US publicly supports, while the US is cold to Germany's inclusion and cool to Brazil's candidacy.

The US-India joint statement reflected some movement in the US position. Bush "reiterated his view that international institutions are going to have to adapt to reflect India's central and growing role," it said. Officials pointed to the word "central" as forward movement although there is little indication the White House is ready or willing to spend any political capital on the subject at this time. The UN is not a good sell on Capitol Hill and given the plethora of domestic battles facing Bush—from getting a Supreme Court nominee confirmed to pushing social security reforms through the Congress—Security Council expansion seems like a bad dream to the Bushcons.

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