Squeeze Play

This is the second time, after the '92 sanctions against Libya, that the Security Council has resolved to assist in the arrest of individuals considered terrorists and fugitives by the US. The US has already frozen the assets of Afghanistan's national carrier - Ariana Afghan Airlines - and other UN member-states would now have to do the same. The US has tried the classic carrot-and-stick approach to nab Bin Laden. They've kept open the option of further talks with the Taliban and at the same time announced a $5 million reward for informants who could help in the capture of Bin Laden and his so-called military commander, Mohammad Atef. The American oil giant, unocal, which had signed an agreement at the head of a consortium to build oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, had to withdraw due to US government pressure. The US has also been building up pressure on the Taliban on account of their poor human rights record, and their not-so-discreet support for poppy cultivation that's made Afghanistan the world's biggest producer of opium. Primarily due to US pressure, Afghanistan's seat in the UN is still occupied by the deposed Rabbani government, which can nominally claim 10 per cent of the country's territory compared to 90 per cent controlled by the Taliban.

The economic sanctions, though limited in nature, have already started to hurt. Ariana, which owns only three old Boeing aircraft, has been grounded as it can no longer fly to its only destinations in Dubai and Sharjah in the UAE. The airline, which had stopped flying to Pakistan and India sometime back, used to have five flights a week to the UAE. Three of these were cargo flights which was a major source of income for Afghan traders who bought electronic goods in the Gulf states and then flew them to Afghan cities like Kabul, Jalalabad and Kandahar to be smuggled to Pakistan. Ariana also transported the almost 250,000 Afghans working in the Gulf and elsewhere along with the country's overseas mail. An Ariana official said the planes are uneconomical if flown on domestic routes; in fact, Ariana uses Russian-made Antonov military transport aircraft domestically. Afghan government assets abroad will also be frozen, though it seems impoverished Afghanistan doesn't have much in terms of money kept in foreign banks. In fact, Taliban leaders, and before them the country's mujahideen rulers, were fond of saying that Afghanistan can withstand international pressure because it doesn't owe anything to any country or financial institution in the world.

Ordinary Afghans would now have to pay more for air travel as they would no longer be able to fly directly to Afghanistan by Ariana and instead would be required to take flights to neighbouring Pakistan and then drive home across the border. It would also entail acquiring Pakistani visas which would be an extra burden. Overseas mail too would become costlier as it would be re-routed via Pakistan. But traders have never been deterred by sanctions and war, and they would now bring even more goods from the UAE to Afghanistan via Iran and Turkmenistan (which they are already doing on a big scale) to sell to both Afghans and Pakistanis. As for the Taliban, they have lost a good source of income due to grounding of Ariana's planes and have to brace themselves for further losses if the sanctions are stiffened. They also need money to fund their ongoing war against the opposition Northern Alliance and keep their rudimentary administration running. Afghanistan's dependence on Pakistan is so huge that flour prices doubled in most parts of the country when smuggling of Pakistani flour almost stopped across the border to Afghanistan following a crackdown by the new military authorities in Islamabad. It is thus apparent that whatever is left of the Afghan economy has now become submerged in the Pakistani economy and the latter's currency is now almost legal tender in Afghanistan. All eyes would, therefore, be on Pakistan as the impact of the US-inspired and UN-imposed economic sanctions is monitored so as to conclude whether the Taliban ought to be punished more to force them to bow before the world body.