After Mao Zedong's PLA captured power in China in 1949 and proclaimed the People's Republic of China, the PLA became the army of thestate. The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party proclaimed China as the "rear base" for all communist movements in Asia. It assisted North Korea in its war with the US-led coalition, North Vietnam in its war initially against the French and subsequently against the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army and the communist insurgencies in Malaysia, Northern Thailand and Myanmar and helped the Indonesian communists in a big way till the military coup staged by the Indonesian Army under President Suharto saved the country from falling into the hands of the communists. The Burmese Army under Gen.Ne Win similarly captured power in the early 1960s to prevent their country from falling into the hands of the communists and other ethnic insurgent groups. In 1979, after 30 years of trying to export Maoism, Deng Xiaoping changed this policy and stopped exporting the revolution to other countries.
After capturing power in Cuba in the early 1960s, Fidel Castro converted his armed guerillas into the army of the state and embarked on a policy of exporting the Cuban revolution to other Latin American countries, with Cuba serving as the rear base. The death of Che Guavera, who was asked to have this policy executed, allegedly at the hands of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) put an end to Cuba's communist dreams in Latin America, but till today, the Cuban Government and Communist Party continue with their attempts at political subversion in the Latin American countries.
Only Vietnam proved a refreshing contrast. After they defeated the Americans and the South Vietnamese Army in 1975 and re-united their country, they concentrated on developing the country and avoided all ideological adventures abroad.
Which model Prachanda and his Maoist followers will follow--the Chinese, the Cuban or the Vietnamese? If one goes by his past statements and interviews, he is likely to follow a mix of the Chinese and Cuban models and not the Vietnamese. He has always been attracted by the idea of Nepal serving as a rear base for exporting the Maoist revolution to India. He has also viewed a destabilised India preoccupied with internal security as in the long-term interests of Nepal. We should not allow his present charm offensive towards India make us forget his past.
Till now, our military planners have been worried over the dangers of India being confronted one day with a two-frontwar--with Pakistan and China. We now have to think seriously about the dangers of a three-front war with Pakistan, China and Nepal.
Once the communists accede to power--through an armed revolution or through the ballotbox--they try to see that nobody else can dislodge them. There have been exceptions, of course. Nicaragua, for example. But, there the communists were prevented from entrenching themselves through strong US support for non-communist elements.
It is neither in the interests of Nepal nor of India for the Maoists to entrench themselves in power and convert the RNA into the PLA of Nepal and turn Nepal into a rear base to help the Maoists in India. The plans of the Maoists for a presidential style ofgovernment in Nepal with all powers concentrated in the hands of Prachanda and with the RNA replaced by the PLAN should be thwarted. All genuinely democratic forces in Nepal and the military leadership should join hands to prevent the communists from carrying out their long-termdesigns. The communists will fight back ferociously all attempts to deny them the fruits of power. The fear of a possibly bloody riposte by the communists should not deter those worried over the implications of the Maoists' plan from acting before it is too late.