Shadow Dancing

The million rupee question after the wildly anticipated meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Pervez Musharraf was: Has the peace process stalled? 'No' was the firm answer from both sides. Although there was no breakthrough, just old wine in old bottles served again with a promise to continue working for a "peaceful, negotiated settlement", there was an explicit commitment to carry the hard work. There can't be a Diwali celebration after every summit meeting because of the long legacy and complexity of issues. There were differences, specially over India's refusal to withdraw troops from Kashmir in light of the continuing violence there—something the Pakistanis had wanted to take home to their people. But India wants to see an end to infiltration over a sustained period.

Foreign secretary Shyam Saran wondered why, every time there is an India-Pakistan encounter, people expect something spectacular. "We are not engaged in event-making. We are engaged in a process. It requires hard work, it requires home work, and it requires incremental progress because these issues have a long legacy," he said. Pakistani officials made similar statements, showing that the two sides are no longer interested in scoring points but staying engaged.

Manmohan and Musharraf first met for about an hour and a half accompanied by their foreign ministers and national security advisors. Pakistani sources say that during the meeting, there were argumentative and tension-filled moments, particularly between the two nsas. But the atmosphere relaxed after a one-to-one between Manmohan and Musharraf. There were also tense moments when Manmohan referred to Musharraf's remarks to the UN General Assembly where the general talked of the need to implement UN resolutions. Musharraf said it was not his intention to create a negative atmosphere but he needs progress on "issues of interest to Pakistan". He also assured Manmohan that he would consider the Sarabjit Singh case in "a humanitarian manner".

When the two leaders finally emerged after their dinner meeting at the upscale Palace Hotel, anticipation among the Indian and Pakistani media was high enough to touch the ceiling. They looked understandably tired—it was past midnight and Wednesday had become Thursday. But they had enjoyed a relaxed dinner, talked of cricket and good restaurants in Lahore. Musharraf was asked by the Indian side to read the joint statement—a curt, four-paragraph delivery after three hours of immediate labour and at least three secret meetings on the back channel. Saran confessed it was "drafted very quickly".

India and Pakistan have reached a stage in their dealings that, despite no concrete progress, they can still issue a report card. In the past, the two sides would have gone behind their respective walls. For India, a complete cessation of infiltration and violence remains the primary issue. "The people of India ask—if you have a peace process, why does terrorism continue?" said Saran. The statement explicitly said that the two leaders "reiterated their pledge that they would not allow terrorism to impede the peace process", referring to the January 6, 2004, statement negotiated under the previous NDA government which had made a demand that no Pakistani territory should be used for terrorism. The reference to terrorism not being allowed to "impede the peace process" was reportedly included at the insistence of Indian national security advisor M.K. Narayanan. The Indian line on terrorism prevailed and for Pakistan there was a reference to "a peaceful settlement of all pending issues including Jammu and Kashmir to the satisfaction of both sides."

On his part, Manmohan reportedly told the Hurriyat leaders earlier this month that if cross-border terrorism ends, he would consider reducing security forces in thestate. He even left open the possibility of an internal ceasefire in Kashmir.If things were going well in the run-up to the meeting, why couldn't more be done? Sources in the Pakistani delegation said that the problem is of "pace"—Pakistan wants action at high speed, specially on the Kashmir issue, while India feels the pace is about right. "India wants to flirt but we want a nikah," one official surmised. The impatience for a "nikah" can lead to old habits surfacing—after Manmohan told President George Bush that "Pakistan still controls the flow of terror," Musharraf promptly demanded the implementation of the UN resolutions in his speech to theUNGA. Manmohan returned in his speech: "We shall never succumb to or compromise with terror, in Jammu and Kashmir or elsewhere." A minor tit-for-tat was thus consummated.

While the latest joint statement talked of "promotion of trade and economic relations", there was no reference to the Iran gas pipeline as in the April statement. Most likely, both sides thought it wise to avoid a reference to Iran in America, given the radiation capabilities of the subject and the US policy on the issue.

Husain Haqqani, associate professor at Boston University, said India and Pakistan have a long way to go before addressing their deep-rooted concerns. "Although Manmohan thinks he can do business with Musharraf, Musharraf's biggest problem is his need to show some gain to retain his control over the Pakistani military which continues to see India as an existential threat to Pakistan," Haqqani said. He contends that while for the moment Musharraf is able to control the jehadis without destroying their infrastructure, the question is what will happen if and when some jehadis become restless or the Pakistani army thinks it's time to focus on Kashmir again?

Sumit Ganguly, a professor at the Indiana University, wasn't confident that the peace process would continue at its present pace. Pointing out that Kashmir is still the "central stumbling block", he said, "Musharraf seems obsessed about the subject and Manmohan has made it clear that he will neither countenance territorial compromise nor brook Pakistan's support for various insurgent groups in Kashmir." Ganguly lauded the PM's decision to meet the Hurriyat leaders as a positive step. Senator Mushahid Hussain, chairman of Pakistan's Senate Foreign Relations Committee, agrees, saying he was "happy the bilateral dialogue has been converted into a trilateral dialogue. It should lead to some alleviation of the suffering of the Kashmiri people." Over to Islamabad, where Manmohan will travel to this year.