It wiped out villages. Destroyed crops. Over 3.6 million people were directly affected. Nearly 85% of the area was destroyed. Three months after the catastrophe some 75% of the population was receiving food from relief workers (more here).
The furies of the flood recall the devastation of the 1970 Bhola cyclone, that eventually contributed to Pakistan’s break-up, leading to worrying questions...
It wiped out villages. Destroyed crops. Over 3.6 million people were directly affected. Nearly 85% of the area was destroyed. Three months after the catastrophe some 75% of the population was receiving food from relief workers (more here).
It happened in Pakistan. Yet few Pakistanis even know of it by name. Fewer still remember that it eventually contributed to Pakistan’s break-up.
The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit then East Pakistan on November 12, 1970. It brought with it winds of an unbelievable 185 km/hr. It left in its wake a half million Pakistanis dead.
Meteorologists remember it as being one of the most deadly natural disasters in human history – sources suggest that it left between 300,000 to 1 million Pakistanis dead in its wake; most estimates suggest around 500,000 Pakistanis died.
Historians tend to agree that although there were many other forces at work, the devastation caused by the cyclone and the widespread view that the government had mis-managed the relief efforts and West Pakistan had generally shown an attitude of neglect, contributed to high levels of anti-West Pakistan feeling, a sweeping victory for the Awami League, and eventually the breakup of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh.
Such, then, are the forces of nature. And such are the forces of history.
-- A post from a Pakistani website, Pakistaniat
"The cost of rebuilding in the flood-hit areas could reach $15 billion and a Marshall Plan will be needed to meet the challenge, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Britain Wajid Shamsul Hasan said on Monday (August 16).
He said this was a rough estimate because an assessment of the extent of the damage caused by the floods – which have affected 20 million people – had yet to be carried out. But the number gave an indication of the scale of the reconstruction needed after the floods swept away roads, bridges, telecommunication infrastructure and destroyed crops. “It will take at least five years,” Hasan told Reuters in an interview. Asked about the cost of rebuilding, he said, “I think more than $10 to $15 billion”. Pakistan is appealing for international aid to help it cope with one of the worst natural disasters in its history. The United Nations says only a quarter of the estimated $459 million in international aid needed just for immediate relief has arrived so far. “If something happens to Pakistan, the whole region will be plunged into Balkanisation. You can’t stop it there,” Hasan warned, adding, that he was not suggesting Pakistan would collapse, but nonetheless drew a parallel with a cyclone, which hit East Pakistan in 1970, which fuelled resentment against the government, then, as now, it was accused of not doing enough. “In the longer term, when the water subsides, we need reconstruction ... we’ll have to have a long-term plan, something like the Marshall Plan,” Hasan said.
--From the Daily Times of Lahore of August 18, 2010
On November 12,1970, a cyclone of devastating magnitude struck the then East Pakistan. Over 300,000 people--the overwhelming majority of them Bengalis--perished. East Pakistan's economy suffered extensive damages.
The indifference of the federal government then ruled by Gen Yahya Khan to the plight of the Bengalis and its failure to mobilise humanitarian relief for the victims created a permanent wedge between the Bengalis of East Pakistan and the non-Bengalis of the then West Pakistan and set in motion the train of events that ultimately led to the separation of East Pakistan and the birth of independent Bangladesh.
It is not without reason that an increasing number of Pakistanis with a sense of history are asking: Can history repeat itself?
Those who rule out a repeat of 1971 point out that the devastation caused by the current floods in Pakistan is not comparable to that caused by the cyclone of November,1970, in East Pakistan. Those, who are concerned over the prospects of a repeat of 1971, highlight that the present political class in Pakistan has been as indifferent to the plight of the victims as the political class of 1970 was. The disaster of 1970 took place when the army was in power. The current disaster has struck Pakistan when an elected civilian Government is in power. In the perception of many, the Government has shown itself to be not only incompetent, but uncaring. The international community has cared for the victims more than Pakistan's own political class.
The current disaster due to floods has had two dimensions--the humanitarian and the strategic. The details of the humanitarian dimension have already been covered by me in an earlier article on the floods. While the humanitarian dimensions are important from the immediate and short-term points of view, the strategic dimensions could assume importance from the medium and long-term points of view.
The humanitarian dimensions are quantifiable and their consequences predictable. The likely strategic dimensions are as yet not fully visible, unquantifiable and their consequences unpredictable. The strategic dimensions of the disaster would arise from the following factors:
The post-flood situation in Pakistan needs careful monitoring by Indian strategic experts.
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies