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People danced in the streets, joyously honked car horns and beat drums. The mood here was festive: crowds gathered outside the White House well past midnight on Election Day and happily posed for pictures with a cardboard cutout of Obama. In his hometown of Chicago, Obama told supporters, "change has come to America". It is but natural that none felt the change to be more cathartic than the African-Americans, for whom the memories of America’s past of segregation only form a haunted backdrop to existing injustices. For them, the night of Nov 4-5, 2008, will symbolise a veritable revolution in a country where blacks were bought and sold as slaves and kept apart from whites. They were the ‘untouchables’ of America. Now, they have one of theirs in the White House.
America has changed...
Ask John Lewis, a civil rights leader who marched with Martin Luther King in the ’60s before he came to Washington to serve Georgia in the House of Representatives. In 1965, while marching for voting rights for blacks in Selma, Alabama, he was beaten up by white officers. The scars remain. After Obama won, Lewis told a TV channel, "I jumped, and I shouted with joy. And my feet left the floor, and I just kept jumping. Something lifted me up, and I shed some tears. And I tell you, I’ve cried so much in the past few hours, I don’t think I have any tears left." His remark was typical of the black community, explaining why Obama got 95 per cent of its votes.
Obama’s election also inspired immigrants who continue to flock America’s shores chasing their dreams. On the night of Nov 4-5, writer and former UN diplomat Shashi Tharoor, struggling to cross Times Square in New York, found himself consumed by the emotions of the throngs around him. "My own reaction," Tharoor told Outlook, "after 32 years of watching American presidential elections up close, was of wonder, mixed with a palpable sense of relief. Because like many who wished for this outcome, I had still feared that too many white Americans, in the privacy of the voting booth, would be unable to bring themselves to put a black family in the White House."
Obviously, Obama couldn’t have won without the support of whites—43 per cent of them supported him. "By voting their hopes and not their prejudices," Tharoor said, "Americans outdid themselves and earned the world’s admiration. This was, quite simply, the soul of a great nation being reborn." Added Democrat fundraiser Swadesh Chatterjee, who’s close to vice-president-elect Joseph Biden, "He has given hope to my kids."
Those under 30 (66 per cent) and first-time voters (68 per cent) played a crucial role in Obama’s landslide win. Indian ‘kids’ cheered it as much as anyone else. Anita Banerji from Chicago, who canvassed in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, says she is proud to have helped a campaign that instilled "a keen sense of unity our country so desperately needs". Harin Contractor of Stone Mountain, Georgia, a Democrat Party volunteer, said, "A skinny brown kid with a funny name...sounds a lot like me. Not only has political fire within the Indian-American community exploded with his victory, it also serves as a symbol of what we can and will accomplish." Obama’s victory is fanning dreams, among blacks, and Indians. Leena Nanda, a data analyst at a Chicago hospital who canvassed in Iowa, says the Obaman feat has made her "seriously consider running for office herself". President Leena Nanda? You can’t laugh at it now.
In the end, though, it wasn’t the colour of his skin but desperation over the financial crisis, arguably the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s, that has brought Obama into the White House. The exit polls say a whopping 62 per cent rated economy as the dominant concern in the election, compared to only 10 per cent for Iraq, the second most important factor. Indeed, the global meltdown transformed a neck-and-neck presidential race into a tide for Obama. "He won because of concerns regarding the economy and that will have to be his first priority when he assumes office in January," Walter Andersen of the Johns Hopkins University told Outlook. Obama was off the block just a day after his election, appointing an advisory board to assist his team in the smooth transition of power. It includes Indian-American Sonal Shah.
Bye-bye Bush, the world won’t miss you
As TV stations called the election for Obama, a feeling of euphoria swept through the world, from Indonesia to Kenya to Europe. True, the citizens of the globe understood the symbolism of a black in the White House, finding in this momentous development reason to hope for change in their countries. But the relief also stemmed from their belief that Obama would junk the Republican policies of his predecessor. Indeed, Bush’s bullying tactics, his swagger, his unilateralism in foreign relations had alienated much of the world, particularly West Asia. "Obama’s victory," says Brookings Institution’s Stephen Cohen, "will bring about an enormous, but probably temporary, revival of confidence in the US, and admiration for our ability to change. Whether this lasts will depend in large part on the Obama team’s success."
A key Obama pointsperson for South Asia, Karl Inderfurth says there will be many foreign policy shifts from the past eight years of the Bush administration(see 'MoreHas Been Read Into Kashmir Mediation Than Obama Intended). Three things, he said, are likely to happen forthwith: the closure of the controversial Guantanamo Bay detention facility, the outlawing of torture and a bigger American leadership role on climate change. There could have been other dramatic shifts had the US not been wallowing in economic crisis.
Apart from climate change, Ambassador Teresita Schaffer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies expects the Obama administration to be "more collaborative" in its conduct of foreign policy and keen to "work to restore alliances". To Schaffer’s list, Indiana University’s Sumit Ganguly adds: "Some attempts to revive the old arms control agenda, less bellicose rhetoric on Iran and a cautious attempt to revive the Middle East peace process." Ganguly told Outlook, "Obama will consult with allies, rely on multilateral institutions (not just seek to exploit them), focus more on economic diplomacy."
India in the Obama scheme
Detested abroad and reviled in America, Bush was one president who helped enhance India’s profile and blessed its quest to have a role on the world stage. The 123 agreement broke India’s nuclear apartheid and enabled the country to acquire a buzz here. Some worry about India’s future under Obama. They caution against emphasising on the Indian influences on Obama—his love for the Mahabharata, the Gandhi photo in his Senate office, the Hanuman talisman he reportedly wears, the Indian friends he had in college with whom he still maintains close touch, his ability to cook delicious dal. Such personal preferences, they insist, count for little in the choppy waters of diplomacy.
But India’s ambassador to the US, Ronen Sen, is confident that the US-India relationship has enough bipartisan support to ensure a steady upward trajectory regardless of which party is at the helm. "We have built up a very constructive, positive agenda," Sen told Outlook. "There are about two dozen dialogue mechanisms." Sen has met Obama, found him "warm and friendly" and aware of the US-India relationship, not just in the context of the civilian nuclear agreement, but also of the "commonalities of concerns and intersection of interests apart from our shared ideals".
And though Obama hasn’t met the Indian prime minister yet, he wrote a letter to Manmohan Singh saying that "deepening and broadening the friendship between our two countries will be a first-order priority for me". And Manmohan, in a congratulatory note this week, was equally effusive, "Your extraordinary journey to the White House will inspire people not only in your country but also around the world."
Niceties apart, Obama’s foreign policy menu has some hot chilli items. For instance, says Andersen, expect the US to urge India to sign the CTBT (once the Senate passes it) and Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, whenever its negotiations are completed. Should this worry New Delhi? Again, could Obama’s purported economic policies impact outsourcing—and India?
Analysts are unanimous that the recent uproar in India over Obama’s apparent tilt towards mediating in the Kashmir dispute is unwarranted. They say the young president-elect has in the past favoured a bilateral solution to Kashmir, and caution against becoming hypersensitive and reacting to every sound-bite emanating from the US. Schaffer maintains it is highly unlikely that an Obama administration will impose a US role on unwilling partners like India and Pakistan. "The interesting thing is that the Pakistanis are no longer particularly keen on US involvement," she points out.
Cohen says US role in the subcontinent will depend on who Obama chooses as his advisors. Reading the tea leaves today, he predicts that the Indo-US relations may become "painfully normal, perhaps even boring, which is for the good".
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