Post-Agra, is there hope for Indo-Pak relations? Everything hinged on Gen Pervez Musharraf showing some signs of conciliation. But on Friday evening, he made a strong speech that virtually closed all other avenues for a bilateral thaw by stressing again on the 'Kashmir-before-anything-else' line. Taking a dig at the futile groping around for a joint declaration that happened at Agra, the general said this kind of "English composition" exercise could be done in half an hour. An element of insincerity dogged the whole of the Agra summit, he said, adding that progress would be difficult "dil me jab khot ho" (when there's insincerity).
He left no one in doubt that even if Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh were to accept his invitation and come to Islamabad, he would still insist that the resolution of Kashmir should be accorded primacy and the other issues be addressed in tandem. Plus, these issues couldn't be taken up fruitfully without movement on Kashmir, as defined by him.
His hard-hitting speech put an end to the uncertainty prevailing in New Delhi over which way things would go after fissures developed rapidly post-Agra. Two days after the summit, an mea spokesperson declared unequivocally: "It's disappointing that no closure was reached on the text. We will have to begin again on the basis of existing agreements—the Simla accord and the Lahore declaration." This came a day after foreign minister Jaswant Singh had said: "Everything has not collapsed."
These forked-tongue utterances might make one wonder about the mea's gameplan. But it ought to be remembered that the spokesperson's statement was in response to what the Pakistan foreign minister said on reaching Islamabad: "The summit remained inconclusive but it didn't fail. In fact, the two leaders succeeded in covering a broad area of their common ground in the draft declaration. That will provide a valuable foundation for the two leaders to reach full agreement at their next meeting."
The subtext of Sattar's statement was: the next time Vajpayee and Musharraf meet, Islamabad expects that the distance that remained to be covered at Agra would be traversed. So, was Delhi's decision to harp on Lahore and Simla an attempt at leveraging itself better? Or was the bjp trying to placate its core constituency? These questions have become irrelevant after his Friday speech.
India's response post-summit was a belated endeavour in damage control, suggests a senior government official. He explains: "When the Kargil war became a TV war, the government was happy. But when the Agra summit became a TV summit, the same guys who were then happy are now aghast." Musharraf's speech has given ample reason to draw appropriate lessons on the merits of media diplomacy.
Though Musharraf has reaffirmed his invitation to Vajpayee, it is certain that he and indeed even Jaswant Singh would be under some pressure to call off their proposed trips. The two leaders, though, would get a chance to meet on the sidelines of the UN meet.
Delhi's pre-summit cbms have paid off and could be cited as proof of India's intention to put flesh to bilateral relations. The prime minister in his plenary address at Agra referred to the pows in Pakistan, sought a gesture on Pakistan's part to not take into custody Indian fishermen who inadvertently stray into Pakistani waters and also indicated willingness to take "further major steps" to enhance bilateral relations.
Bureaucrats fear violence in the Valley will increase. The shelling across the border experienced an upturn even as the general addressed the press. As for the Hurriyat, sources say it was the outfit which did most of the talking at the high tea. When pressed, Musharraf did assure them that they would be brought on board at an appropriate time, but the general dodged the question of when that would be. jklf's Yasin Malik was expected to fly into India over the weekend, and it is felt that he might affect the organisation's precarious balance.