Move Like An Egyptian

Was Krishna’s remark a diplomatic way of extending support to those who want Mubarak out? In fact, the statement was ambiguous enough to provide scope for the MEA to claim that Krishna’s remarks were in consonance with India’s policy of not adopting a ‘prescriptive’ approach to the internal affairs of another country. Yet there’s no denying that New Delhi has subtly kept refining its stance through the week, taking care to keep abreast of daily revisions in the position of western powers, particularly that of the US. Thus it is that Krishna’s remarks came within hours of US President Barack Obama demanding an immediate, peaceful, meaningful change in Egypt.

India will now have to countenance such policy challenges in West Asia. As N. Ravi, former MEA secretary, told Outlook, “The winds of change have begun to blow and it is the new generation of Arabs born in the age of internet who want their aspirations to be met.” In a large swathe of West Asia, nearly half the population is below 25 years, their frustration deepening as unemployment figures rise and educational qualification improves. It’s they who are demanding better governance, a larger share in the national wealth, and freedom on par with that prevailing elsewhere. It’s also they who have taken to the streets following the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi, the Tunisian vendor who set himself ablaze in protest against the high-handedness of the police.

To this rage of the street add long-festering problems of the region—the Palestine-Israel issue, instability in Iraq, the fear of Iran’s controversial nuclear programme—and you know this changing, unstable West Asia demands a careful, calibrated rethink of India’s policy. This is imperative in the light of India’s high stakes in the region. It has a diaspora of over 5.5 million living and working there. Billions of dollars are received as remittance every year from these people. The region is also India’s main source of energy as its largest trading bloc, the two-way trade worth a whopping $110 billion. Besides, West Asia has many sites where Muslims go on pilgrimage, including Haj, and is becoming an important destination for Indian tourists.

South Block officials, though, feel the Gulf countries are less susceptible to volatile street protests than others. The Gulf not only has a wider resource base from their oil revenues to pacify dissent, they have shown a propensity to “coopt, rather than coerce” voices of opposition. In addition, the Gulf is dominated by monarchies which are largely based on strong tribal loyalties, thus imparting legitimacy to their rule and providing themselves elbow room to undertake political manoeuvres.

Says Oxford historian Eugene Rogan, “The republics are more vulnerable to change than the hereditary monarchies. Rule for life and dynastic succession are part and parcel of monarchy and each monarchy in the region has a socio-religious basis for legitimacy.” These monarchs also have the advantage of blaming prime ministers for unpopular policies and removing them to placate the people. That said, the unprecedented developments in Tunisia and Egypt will certainly inspire the educated, the unemployed and the young to demand greater freedom. Says Rogan, “Events in Tunisia and Egypt have electrified people across the region, and we can expect major changes—evolutionary and revolutionary—right through 2011.”

South Block officials are monitoring the situation in the Arab world on an hourly basis, fervently hoping that the region, particularly the Gulf, doesn’t remain on the boil for long. Should the democratic movement gather momentum, and the transition from the old to new order isn’t smooth, India will have its job cut out. Imagine the nightmarish situation of evacuating a million Indians from, say, a Gulf country undergoing an Egypt-like upheaval, simultaneously stabilising the oil prices and ensuring uninterrupted supply of oil.