Jackboot Prints

t was a scene unprecedented in the annals of Pakistan. Behind the closed doors of Parliament, in an in-camera joint session of the two Houses—the Senate and the National Assembly—the top military brass, sullen and sheepish, briefed the representatives of people about the intelligence failure of May 2, arguably Pakistan’s worst in six decades of existence. Billed as ‘a rare civilian moment’, the military for the first time ‘surrendered’ itself to Parliament and fielded questions about Operation Geronimo. Wasn’t the close proximity of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s hideout to the country’s elite military academy testimony to the isi’s incompetence? Wasn’t it an abject failure of the military that it was oblivious to the US strike in the heart of the country until Washington informed Pakistani leaders about it?

As military bosses risked Parliament’s censure, ISI director-general Shuja Pasha declared, “I am a disciplined person.... If the prime minister wants me to resign, I am ready to leave. I accept the responsibility and apologise if any negligence is established.” Such pious nods at accountability had dark undertones as well. The air force deputy chief, Air Marshal Muhammad Hassan, said Pakistan did not have the means to detect a stealth chopper—a significant disclosure from an institution that gobbles up 70 per cent of the annual budget. When a parliamentarian complained about US drones encroaching upon Pakistani air space, Hassan deftly responded, saying the PAF could shoot down drones should the prime minister issue such orders.

Such capacity for swift riposte could not conceal the army’s isolation, irrespective of its generals renting a crowd to shout slogans in their favour as they explained themselves to the civilian government. Perhaps the army’s supposed contrition would have rung truer had Pasha resigned, instead of merely offering to do so. His fate, though, will be decided after the government appoints an independent commission to investigate the bungling by the military that left Pakistan red-faced in embarrassment.

The aftermath of the May 2 strike has prompted many to ask: Will politicians grab the opportunity to bring about a greater balance in the civilian-military relationship? “The OBL (Osama bin Laden) episode has mounted intense pressure on the army and the ISI. It is natural for the civilian government to re-establish a new balance, since Parliament has come out strongly behind the civil administration,” Pakistan People’s Party leader Aitizaz Ahsan told Outlook. He feels an enabling factor is that the army under Gen Ashfaq Kayani is open to the idea of submitting to the authority of Parliament, as borne out by Pasha and Hassan’s briefing the people’s representatives. “He appears to be mindful of the sensitivity of the issue,” Ahsan suggests.

Yet Pakistan’s history provides dire warning to those who dare to hope for a more even keel in the balance of power. Whenever a Pakistani premier has tried to redefine the military-civilian relationship, he has been booted out. When former PM Muhammad Khan Junejo ordered an inquiry into the devastating 1988 explosion at the Ojiri ammunition depot, he was muscled out. The fate of Nawaz Sharif, who ordered an inquiry into Kargil, sacked the ISI boss, and tried to dismiss then army chief Pervez Musharraf, was no different.

However, President Asif Ali Zardari doesn’t seem to be the person who can restore a long-lost equilibrium to the relationship, says political analyst and TV talk show host Nusrat Javeed. “Zardari’s success lies in the fact that he appreciates his limits and will not bait the army. His only aim is to stay in power. He recently suggested that he’d rather Punjabis fight a Punjabi army because he, a Sindhi, has seen the army take out two ppp Sindhi prime ministers.”

But then, there’s already a Punjabi—former PM Nawaz Sharif—who is scripting the battle against the army. He has sent the government names of seven representatives from civil society, politicians, judges and lawyers who should be made members of the independent commission that will investigate the May 2 fiasco. His recent statements also mount, in a way, an ideological challenge to the army. Sample some: “Let’s stop treating India as the country’s biggest enemy if we want to go forward and progress”; “The agencies should work within their constitutional ambit instead of subverting the constitution and toppling governments”; and “The budget of military...should be presented in Parliament and foreign policy should be formulated in the civilian domain”. The provincial PML(N) government has said it wouldn’t accept foreign aid if it means allowing foreign forces to act unilaterally.

Such has been the depth of popular anger against the army that it has compelled Kayani to hold town hall-style meetings with his officers at various army garrisons, gamely fielding questions from a demoralised cadre. At the other end of the spectrum is Tehreek-i-Insaf leader Imran Khan, who is drawing huge crowds as he threatens to stop supplies to NATO. Khan told Outlook, “It’s time the civilian leadership stops playing politics with the military; it is time the military abides by parameters as defined by the constitution. There should be no grey areas.”

Former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, who has worked closely with the military, says no one wants a weak army, given the challenges from across its western and eastern borders, but that the new situation must be factored in. As he told Outlook, “After Parliament passed a joint resolution, it is now incumbent on the civil and military leadership to reset, rethink and reassess their relationship. Timing is important because the confidence of the public is shaken.” The joint resolution condemned the May 2 operation, asked for an end to American drone attacks, and demanded a review of security and foreign policy.

Will Gilani, not known for decisive action, take corrective measures to establish the supremacy of the executive, particularly as he seems to have the nation’s support? Opposition leaders feel this will not happen any time soon as Zardari, beholden to the army, is undecided on whether to challenge its stranglehold on the country. Says Sharif’s foreign policy advisor and former diplomat Tariq Fatimi, “Zardari is not ready. If this government were of a mind to seek balance, they would have reached out to other politicians as well.” Indeed, on the unity of the political class depends the supremacy of the civilian government.